‘All-out combat’ or another flare-up?
When Indian and Chinese soldiers brawled at Pangong lake in Ladakh on May 5—a punch-up serious enough to leave at least 11 in hospital—General MM Naravane, India's army chief, was unworried.
Three days later and nearly 1,200km (745 miles) away to the east along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), another fight erupted at Nathu La Pass in the Indian state of Sikkim after Indian soldiers stopped a patrol party from China's People's Liberation Army (PLA).
Such "temporary and short-duration face-offs" happened from time to time at such remote stretches of the two countries' 3,500km border, Naravane said. Both sides had "disengaged". But a week later he dashed north to the headquarters of his 14th Corps in nearby Leh, the state capital, suggesting that something more serious was afoot.
According to Indian press accounts, thousands of Chinese troops have crossed the disputed border with India at several points, some reportedly penetrating 3-4km over punishing Himalayan terrain. Many are said to have destroyed Indian posts and bridges, and dug in with tents and trenches. At least 10,000 PLA soldiers are now believed to be camping on what India claims to be its territory - Pangong Tso Lake, Galwan Valley and Demchok in Ladakh, and Nathu La in Sikkim.
According to satellite footage published by the Indian news channel NDTV, there has been large-scale construction work at a Chinese military airbase less than 120 miles from the border in recent weeks, including the building of a new runway suitable for warplanes.
In response, the Indian army has moved several battalions from an infantry division usually based in the Ladakh city of Leh to "operational alert areas" along the border, and reinforcement troops have been brought in, reported The Guardian.
On Tuesday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held talks with the three services chiefs and the National Security Adviser amid the worst India-China border tensions since the 2017 Doklam standoff that continued for 73 days.
On the same day, Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered the military to scale up its battle preparedness, visualising the worst-case scenarios and asked them to resolutely defend the country's sovereignty. He however did not mention any specific threat.
Though US President Donald Trump on Wednesday offered to mediate the standoff, both India and China have traditionally opposed any outside
involvement in their matters and are unlikely to accept any US mediation, experts said.
China's ambassador to India, Sun Weidong, struck a conciliatory note, saying the two Asian countries should not let their differences overshadow the broader bilateral relationship.
The two countries are engaged in talks to defuse the border crisis, an Indian government source said. "These things take time, but efforts are on at various levels, military commanders as well as diplomats," the source said.
With little information shared by the two countries, media reports have speculated on the reasons behind the latest border standoff.
One reason, analysts say, is India's infrastructure building activities along the LAC. In the past 10 years, India has been boosting its border infrastructure, with new roads and airbases inaugurated in remote Himalayan areas. Interviews with former Indian military officials and diplomats confirm that.
"Today, with our infrastructure reach slowly extending into areas along the LAC, the Chinese threat perception is raised," said former Indian foreign secretary Nirupama Rao.
"Xi Jinping's China is the proponent of a hard line on all matters of territory, sovereignty. India is no less when it comes to these matters either," she said.
The high-altitude border has been aggressively contested and heavily militarised since 1962 when China launched an offensive into Indian territory, sparking a short but bloody war. But post-1990s, a series of agreements between the two countries have reduced tension considerably, though border skirmishes are common along the LAC.
Ashok K Kantha, a former Indian ambassador to China and now director of the Institute of Chinese Studies based in Delhi, told The Guardian that the recent incursions and border aggressions from China were "far from routine occurrences".
He said: "This escalation is serious; I don't think this is just a localised incident. China's behaviour is more aggressive this time, backed up by a fairly large number of troops, which is not typical of this border where troop levels tend to be low on both sides. It could be a territorial claim or part of a wider messaging to India that they need to be more mindful of China on sensitive geopolitical issues."
Some analysts have also suggested that the Chinese border assertion was a way to divert global attention from its handling of the coronavirus pandemic and from the disturbing developments in Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Most analysts in New Delhi believe that China's actions on the border have been prompted by two factors: one, to send a message to India that it should not join the United States' campaign for an international probe into China's handling of Covid-19 virus and that New Delhi should not back Taiwan's bid to get back observer status in the World Health Organization.
India's recent decision to stop automatic government clearance to Chinese investments in India post-Covid-19 pandemic has also not gone down well in Beijing, analysts point out.
Moreover, India's support for Tibet and its growing defence and security ties with the US, Japan and Australia have irked Beijing more. Meanwhile, China's increasingly closer ties with Pakistan and Nepal have not pleased New Delhi, either.
Amid economic downturn due to coronavirus pandemic, analysts say, both countries can't afford a widespread conflict now.
But some say leadership of both the countries can initiate an international conflict to divert attention from the domestic woes. With millions unemployed, businesses shut, a territorial conflict may take the focus away for some time.
And, they say, if the current standoff escalates, a war, however distant a possibility, is a possibility.
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