Modelling study estimates the number of people living with Type 1 Diabetes is set to double by 2040
An estimated 8.4 million people were living with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) across the globe in 2021, according to the results of a new modelling study published in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. This number is predicted to increase to 13.5-17.4 million people living with T1D by 2040.
There is an opportunity to save millions of lives in the coming decades by raising the standard of care for T1D (including ensuring universal access to insulin and other essential supplies) and increasing awareness of the signs and symptoms of T1D to enable a 100% rate of diagnosis in all countries.
Researchers modelled data on childhood, adolescent and adult T1D prevalence in 97 countries, along with incidence over time data from 65 countries and mortality data from 37 countries to predict T1D incidence, prevalence, and mortality in 2021 for 201 countries, with projections of future prevalence through 2040. The estimates were tested for accuracy against real world prevalence data from 15 countries.
In 2021, the model estimated that 8.4 million individuals worldwide were living with T1D. Of these individuals, 18% were under 20 years old, 64% were between 20-59 years, and 19% were over 60 years. Although historically T1D has been a disease associated with onset in childhood, these results reveal that numerically more adults than children are diagnosed every year (316,000 vs 194,000 incident cases worldwide in 2021), with a mean diagnosis age of 32 years.
The projected T1D prevalence in 2040 given by the model was is 13.5-17.5 million people, with largest relative increases predicted to occur in LICs and LMICs. Conservative estimates place the relative increase in the number of people living with T1D by 2040 compared to 2020 at 66%.
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