Blue wave or red?
Immigration, health care, jobs.
The extraordinary US midterm election has been a tug of war over key issues, but none has had a more dramatic impact on voters than Donald Trump, the man who isn't even on the ballot. The Republican president is the omnipresent figure as Americans render their verdict Tuesday on the past 21 months of Trumpism.
Democrats hope voter dissatisfaction with the contentious commander in chief will lead to a blue wave that flips control of the US House out of Republican hands. Trump's minions are counting on enthusiasm about core issues to trigger strong conservative voter turnout that preserves their majorities in Congress.
Here are the key factors in the battle:
Violence: The campaign's final weeks were marred by the worst anti-Semitic attack in modern US history, which left 11 dead in a Pittsburgh synagogue. Days earlier, a frantic manhunt led to the arrest of a fanatical Trump supporter on charges of mailing pipe bombs to prominent Trump opponents, including former president Barack Obama. This spasm of violence fueled a debate about the president's caustic rhetoric, and whether it has played a role in deepening American divisions.
Women: Following the outbreak of the #MeToo movement denouncing sexual assault, and the massive women's protests against Trump, women voters and candidates will play critical roles in the first major election since Trump took power. And they appear particularly motivated to vote. Female college graduates in well-off suburbs are in the spotlight because many are voicing disgust with Trump's aggressive rhetoric, and their votes could decide tight races in Democrats' favor. Also a record number of women -- 200 Democrats and 60 Republicans -- are candidates for Congress, where they currently hold only about 20 percent of the seats.
Immigration: Sending thousands of troops to the US-Mexico border to counter a migrant "invasion," questioning the validity of birthright citizenship, and spreading stories of scandalous murders by undocumented immigrants: Trump and his Republicans are making immigration a closing argument of the campaign. It may be a logical move. Immigration is a top concern among Republican voters, and driving those issue-focused Trump supporters to the polls is key.
Health care: For months, Democrats have drilled their central message into the minds of voters: if Republicans strengthen their grip on Congress, they will destroy your health care.
It is an arresting theme in a country that does not have a universal health coverage system. The reforms signed into law by Democratic president Barack Obama have helped millions of Americans gain insurance.
Despite their big 2016 campaign pledge, Trump and Republicans have so far failed to outright repeal Obamacare.
The economy: Between Trump's "trade war," his renegotiation of international treaties, robust US growth and full employment, the economy is at the heart of this election.
In mining territory and industrial zones, Trump's protectionist policies are welcomed. But farmers themselves have suffered from retaliatory measures imposed by America's trading partners. Even with the US economy largely humming along, and Republican candidates desperate for Trump to highlight the gains, the president himself often prefers to rile up a crowd over immigration.
"Sometimes it's not as exciting to talk about the economy, right?" he told voters Friday in West Virginia.
What's at stake
Midterm elections are often seen as a referendum on president. Turnout for midterm elections is traditionally lower than in presidential years, but the results could have dramatic implications for the United States, and in particular for Trump's legislative agenda. Republicans are bracing for a likely loss of seats in the House of Representatives but are favored to hold on to the Senate.
House of Representatives
The House has 435 members with states represented on the basis of population. There are currently 236 Republicans, 193 Democrats and six vacancies. All seats are contested every two years. The new congressional term begins in January 2019. Republicans have controlled the House since the conservative Tea Party movement propelled the GOP to a wave election in November 2010. Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House. Likely House outcome: Democrats take control.
Senate
The Senate consists of 100 members, two from each state. It is currently made up of 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats. With terms of six years, about a third of the Senate is up for election every two years. Thirty-five seats are in play in Tuesday's election. Of the 35 seats up for grabs, 26 are held by Democrats and nine by Republicans. Likely Senate outcome: Republicans hold on to the Senate.
Governor races
Thirty-six of the 50 US states elect governors this year, including about 10 considered toss-ups. Republicans currently control 29 governorships to 21 for the Democrats. Two races which are of particular interest are Georgia, where Democrat Stacey Abrams is seeking to become the first black woman to become governor of a US state, and Florida, where Democrat Andrew Gillum is locked in a bitter battle with Republican and Trump acolyte Ron DeSantis.
Ballot Measures
In addition to electing their lawmakers, Americans in several states will vote on ballot measures. Among the notable initiatives:
- Five states are considering the legalization of medical or recreational marijuana.
- Minimum wage increases are on the ballot in two states.
- Access to abortion and abortion funding is on the ballot in three states.
Trump investigations
Besides stymieing the Trump agenda, a Democratic victory in the House could allow Democrats to launch multiple committee investigations of the Trump administration and possibly even impeachment proceedings.
Voter Turnout
Around 37 percent of eligible voters took part in the 2014 midterm elections, down from 42 percent in 2010. More than 60 percent of eligible voters took part in the 2016 vote, when the presidential race was on the ballot.
2 Muslim women set for Congress
US voters are poised to elect two Muslim women to Congress, marking a historic first even as anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant rhetoric has been on the rise. Ilhan Omar, a Somali refugee, is all but certain to be elected to the US House of Representatives in a heavily-Democratic district in the Midwestern state of Minnesota. Rashida Tlaib, a social worker born in Detroit to Palestinian immigrant parents, will win a House seat in a district where she is running unopposed.
First black female governor?
In Georgia, Stacey Abrams, 44, the former minority leader of the state House of Representatives, is running for governor against Republican Brian Kemp, the 55-year-old Georgia secretary of state. Abrams, who has received the support of Oprah Winfrey and other celebrities, would be the first black woman to become governor of a US state if she wins. The race has seen allegations that Kemp has attempted to prevent tens of thousands of mainly black voters from taking part in the election.
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