Polluters’ policies not enough for 1.5C limit
The climate policies of most wealthy countries and many high-emitting emerging economies are in line with global heating far beyond the safer 1.5 degree Celsius limit reaffirmed at UN climate talks last month, a new analysis found yesterday.
Even after countries raised their ambitions to cut emissions of greenhouse gases in the last 18 months, the Paris Equity Check assessment found that the United States, Canada, Australia and the EU are working off plans that could see warming between 2.1C and 3.4C.
The policies of emerging nations including China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are even worse -- implying catastrophic 5C heating by the end of the century.
In contrast, most of the world's poorest countries are on course to stay within the 1.5C limit, according to the assessment, which is based on peer reviewed methodology and looks at the ambition of countries' climate targets published up to November this year.
Countries have agreed to a goal to limit average warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels, which scientists say is a safer guardrail to avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate change.
Barely 1.2C of warming to date has unleashed a crescendo of deadly and costly extreme weather, from heat waves and drought to flooding and tropical storms made more destructive by rising seas.
Currently, the world is heading for around 2.5C under current commitments and plans.
Meanwhile, countries have gathered yesterday for a key UN nature conference in Montreal, aiming to broker a new global agreement to protect what's left of Earth's wildlife and natural spaces. Negotiators hope that the two-week summit, known as COP15, yields a deal that ensures there is more "nature" — animals, plants, and healthy ecosystems — in 2030 than what exists now.
More than 1 million species are now threatened with extinction, vanishing at a rate not seen in 10 million years. As much as 40% of Earth's land surfaces are considered degraded, according to a 2022 UN assessment.
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