Changes in Myanmar: Lessons for Bangladesh
Myanmar has been trying to diversify its foreign orientation in the context of rapidly-changing regional geopolitical dynamics since the military dominated Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) assumed power in November 2010. It has recently witnessed significant political developments which moved the country from the 'policy of isolation' towards a 'policy of engagement.' Political developments include the recently enacted bill in parliament allowing citizens to protest peacefully, initiatives to resume dialogues with other political parties and release of political prisoners. As a result, Myanmar, to some extent, has elevated its position in International Politics. Leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) agreed that Myanmar would chair the regional bloc in 2014. These changes have already given an indication that the country wants to realign its foreign policy breaking its long phase of isolation for decades. It also gives an assessment of which direction the country might take in the coming months and years.
In the light of these developments, the forthcoming visit of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from 5 December 2011 to Myanmar is of immense importance for Bangladesh. Myanmar, with its geo-strategic location and vast natural resources, has gained a strategic importance among the countries in the entire region. Earlier, in pursuit of improving its relations with other countries by warding off western pressure, the military regime in Myanmar had left no stone unturned to utilize its strategic leverages. Realising the geo-strategic and geo-economic importance of Myanmar, China and India have already ensured their presence in the development process of Myanmar where Bangladesh remains no where. Though Bangladesh is aware about the potential of its look-east policy, it has, to date, failed to achieve anything pursuing this policy with Myanmar. Despite having a close geographic proximity with Myanmar, there is no air links, no direct road connectivity, and no shipping link between the two countries. Therefore, it is the high time to strengthen the economic and political interactions with that country. Bangladesh needs to understand Myanmar in the context of recent changes which have been undertaken by the present government in Myanmar.
There are a number of seemingly intractable issues, affecting the bilateral relations between the two countries; these are, repatriation of the remaining Rohingya refugees, the demarcation of maritime boundary, smuggling of narcotics and illegal trade. According to different sources, there are more than 300,000 unregistered Rohingyas living among the local population, in slums and villages mostly in Cox's Bazar district but also in smaller numbers in the Chittagong Hill Tracts. It is a major concern for Bangladesh that the Myanmar is reluctant to accept these persons as their citizens. Concerning the demarcation of maritime boundary between Bangladesh and Myanmar in the Bay of Bengal, the hearing is on at the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) which will give its verdict by 2012. The smuggling of narcotics in the Bangladesh- Myanmar boarder has become a critical issue between the two countries. Media reports revealed that Myanmar's businessmen have set up many factories in the Shan Province, near Thailand border, to produce YABA targeting the domestic market of Bangladesh. Bangladesh has already given a list of businessmen to Myanmar who are involved in the smuggling of narcotics in the Bangladesh Myanmar border.
Given the existing challenges between the two countries, it would be a challenge for Bangladesh to improve its relationship with Myanmar. However, Bangladesh needs to inculcate a sense of trust into the mind of the present government of Myanmar that these longstanding unresolved issues would no longer create hindrances in promoting economic prosperity between the two countries. The policy makers in Bangladesh need to address some common areas of concern where both the countries can strengthen their cooperation.
At present, the trade volume between Bangladesh and Myanmar is very small. It was reported that in 2008-09 Bangladesh's exports stood at $9.17 million and imports from Myanmar at $66.65 million. To increase trade, the joint trade commission of Bangladesh and Myanmar held its fifth meeting on July 21-22, 2011. It was agreed that the two countries would raise bilateral trade to $550 million from $160 million now by two years.
Bangladesh should undertake steps to boost up trade with Myanmar. These steps include diversification of the export items of Bangladesh targeting the domestic market of Myanmar, establishment of a smooth channel of financial transactions as well as building direct road and air links between the two countries and signing of an inland water transport protocol. At present, Bangladeshi importers have been settling their payments for bulk shipments through bank drafts issued by foreign banks to a third country. To deepen connectivity between the two countries, Bangladesh can proceed with Myanmar in joint investment to build a hydroelectric project from where electricity could be supplied to Bangladesh. It can also set up a fertilizer plant under a joint investment where Myanmar might supply natural gas.
However, the prospectus of this relationship depends how Bangladesh can seize the opportunities to expand its relations with the present government of Myanmar. Bangladesh should undertake a pragmatic approach to foster cooperative efforts and interconnectivity which are considered as catalysts for economic growth and prosperity for the two peoples.
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