How will China react to the new US strategic focus on Asia-Pacific?
The world has been watching America's "pivot" to Asia with interest, dissecting every policy pronouncement on the matter, especially those with regard to China.
Just this week, United States President Barack Obama, who is on a nine-day swing through the region, chose a joint session of the Australian Parliament to deliver a major policy address on the Asia-Pacific.
That speech mentioned China only a handful of times, and mostly in benign terms, complete with pro forma statements welcoming China's peaceful rise. But anyone reading between the lines would have noticed the hidden barbs levelled at Beijing by Obama, who is currently in Bali for the East Asia Summit.
He pointedly cited fascism and communism as examples of failed political systems, noting: "Rule by one man and rule by committee...failed for the same simple reason: They ignore the ultimate source of power and legitimacy -- the will of the people."
He concluded his speech thus: "From some of the world's largest cities to dusty rural towns, in small acts of courage the world may never see, a student posts a blog; a citizen signs a charter; an activist remains unbowed, imprisoned in his home, just to have the same rights that we cherish here today."
Those words might be taken as oblique references to China, given Beijing's heavy-handed censorship of the Internet, its crackdown on Chinese intellectuals and activists behind the Charter 08 manifesto, and the continued house arrest of blind activist Chen Guangcheng.
And while Obama framed his speech as about US economic and strategic concerns in the region, the subtext of military competition with China also hung heavily in the air as he pledged to preserve America's "enduring presence" and "unique ability to project power and deter threats."
At the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit over the weekend, Obama also repeatedly expressed his frustrations with Beijing's currency and export policies, and even said at one point that "enough was enough."
These statements come in the wake of other high-profile economic and strategic moves from Washington as part of its "pivot" to Asia -- from roping in more partners for the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, to a visible step-up in its military presence in Australia.
Some analysts are asking if the Obama administration is going too far. "I really worry that (Beijing) would not only see this as an effort to counter-balance China in the region, but also as a strategy to begin destabilising China (domestically)," said Bonnie Glaser, a China expert with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. "And that is something that the Chinese would react quite forcefully to," she added.
Indeed, one of the biggest questions is how China would interpret and react to renewed US focus on the Asia-Pacific. American officials and analysts alike have taken pains to stress that Washington's objective is not to confront or contain China, but to reassure a region nervous about the staying power of the US. But Beijing could well come to a different conclusion, given the manoeuvres and verbal salvos -- direct and indirect -- it is witnessing so far.
There are two possible scenarios. The first is that Beijing decides the US is all bark and no bite. Between the coming week's deadline to reach a major deficit reduction deal in Congress and next November's presidential election, it is fair to ask how much of Mr. Obama's ambitious Asia-Pacific policy will survive when domestic politics intrude. And if Mr. Obama loses his re-election bid, it is possible his Republican replacement will have different priorities.
Beijing could well sit back and take a wait-and-see approach. But the danger is that China could come across as "weak" in the face of an assertive US. As it is, segments of the mainland media are already using terms like "containment" to describe the US strategy, putting pressure on Chinese leaders to take a stand. Domestic pressure on Beijing to act tough can only grow.
Thus far, comments by Chinese officials have been relatively circumspect. The expectation in Washington among analysts is that Beijing will spend some time seriously studying Washington's intentions as well as the region's reaction to Obama's message.
It is not inconceivable for this review to lead to the second scenario, which is for some Chinese leaders to conclude that the new US policy is a potential "game changer" in Asia.
This, in turn, would compel China to rethink its foreign policy principles. For starters, should China abandon its principle of non-alignment and strike up its own military alliances to counter the US network in the Asia-Pacific?
Should they also jettison late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping's foreign policy dictum to "hide our capability and bide our time," and be even more assertive about its interests?
In reality, this discussion has already been going on in China for years. Some might even argue that such changes are in fact currently under way, given Beijing's more assertive posture on the South China Sea territorial dispute, and its ever-growing ties with Pakistan and several Central Asian countries. These trends can only be accelerated by the latest US moves.
In a public talk in Washington this month, Professor Yan Xuetong of Qinghua University suggested that some of these changes might be inevitable given the changing geopolitical environment. "In the long run, I think it is very difficult for China to insist on this principle (of non-alliance) because the US will consolidate its strategic relationship with its allies," added Prof. Yan, dubbed a policy hawk by some in the West. "It's not that the Chinese government wants to (make such a change), but they're forced to."
America's Asia pivot may assure some of its allies in the region, but a pushback from its rival China should also not be unexpected.
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