Floods expose civilian-military divide in Pakistan
Massive flooding in Pakistan appears to be draining support for the already-weak civilian government while boosting the powerful military, a blow to US and domestic hopes for a strong Pakistani democracy capable of undercutting the allure of al-Qaeda and the Taliban.
Even before the deadly deluge that began nearly a month ago, the civilian administration faced growing discontent as power shortages, security problems and economic mismanagement plagued the country. A military coup is seen as unlikely, but flooding is so large-scale that some fear serious political instability in the nuclear-armed nation.
About 20 million people have been affected by the floods across an area bigger than England. Flood victims are far more likely to have seen a Pakistani soldier dropping off relief or picking them up than a member of the civilian government. One state minister's car was pelted with stones after a visit some saw as long overdue, media reports said.
"The overwhelming majority of Pakistanis have always reposed confidence in the army as compared to elected governments," said Mehdi Hasan, a Pakistani political analyst. "People feel the army can do better as it is well trained, it has time and the courage to handle any crisis. It gives an edge to the army over civil administration."
The army ruled Pakistan for more than half of its 63-year history, thanks to coups that followed periods of political unrest or economic mismanagement by civilian leaders. The government today has been in place less than three years, after nearly a decade of army rule by then-Gen. Pervez Musharraf.
But the army has retained tremendous independence, to the point where many Pakistanis speak of the government and the military as separate entities. The army also has steadily regained the popularity it lost during Musharraf's tenure. In 2009, its operations against the Taliban in the Swat Valley and South Waziristan tribal region had broad public support.
The civilians' initial response appeared chaotic and confused as the flooding disaster unfolded. But symbolism seemed to matter more: President Asif Ali Zardari's decision to visit France and England as people fled their water-filled homes infuriated many and burnished the image of an out-of-touch political elite.
More recently, the front pages of Pakistani newspapers have been filled with bickering between the ruling party and the opposition over how flood relief should be monitored, and whether additional layers of bureaucracy should be established to oversee aid.
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