AL’s India-China balancing act pays dividends
Awami League's efforts to balance the Bangladesh's ties with India and China have produced dividends and may prove to be a key factor behind the party's fourth consecutive term in power, according to an analysis by the US Institute of Peace (USIP).
"Rare for these regional competitors, both India and China favour the political status quo. India sees the AL as an important ally on cross-border trade and security issues while China has cultivated a strong economic partnership with Dhaka," said Dr Geoffrey Macdonald, the author of the analysis and USIP visiting expert on South Asia.
The expert said India and China will welcome Prime Minister Hasina's fourth term, but are likely wary of the brewing instability created by Bangladesh's political stalemate.
The article was published on the USIP website on Friday, ahead of tomorrow's polls.
He also said the opposition BNP's boycott of the polls has cleared the path for Sheikh Hasina to extend her term.
"A boycott by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the South Asian nation's main opposition party, will ensure the success of Hasina's Awami League despite the grim economic state of the country," said Macdonald.
BNP and its allies are boycotting the election as its demand for an election under a caretaker government system was not met.
Macdonald, however, said the January 7 election is likely to provide a disputed mandate to the winner.
He said after the election, political dialogue and compromise will be needed to alleviate Bangladesh's political crisis and restore citizens' faith in their democratic institutions.
Over three parliamentary elections from 2014 to 2024, a strong electoral opposition in Bangladesh has effectively disappeared.
"As a dominant party system, Bangladesh's democracy will face deficiencies in representativeness and accountability. The opposition's boycott will inevitably inflate the ruling party's majority beyond its public support.
"Moreover, without a vibrant opposition to hold the ruling party accountable, elected leaders will be prone to abuse their authority. For the BNP, its boycott leaves it out of parliament with few paths to power."
Macdonald said the US is closely observing the contentious parliamentary elections in Bangladesh, where it has a range of interests.
The US partners with Bangladesh on security issues, climate adaptation, Rohingya camp assistance and other development challenges and trade. It also increasingly sees the Bay of Bengal nation as an important piece of its Indo-Pacific Strategy and effort to strengthen global democracy.
"The United States -- along with India, China and other powers -- are watching to see if Bangladesh's elections ease or exacerbate the country's current political crisis, which could reshape how global actors engage Bangladesh," Macdonald said.
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