In pursuit of middle-income status
IN 1997 the author wrote as follows: "We cannot lift ourselves to Switzerland, Japan or USA's income level in near future. The more relevant point is that we do not need to make any such effort at this stage. What is really needed for us at this stage is to cross the threshold income of say $600 or $700 so that we can meet the basic needs of our people. Countries develop a decent level of respectability once they cross this threshold income. They generate a self-sustaining momentum that keeps the income growing at a high pace." (The Independent, May 1, 1997).
At that time, the per capita income of Bangladesh was $283, that of China and India was $530 and $320 respectively.
Twelve years have passed. A lot of water has flown under the bridge in the meantime. Despite many constraints and pernicious happenings, Bangladesh logged commendable performance in terms of growth and increase in per capita income. The latest reports posted a per capita income of $690 for Bangladesh. In a couple of months, the figure is expected to cross $700.
Technically, Bangladesh is poised to graduate from least developed country (LDC) status. It will be pacing for middle income country (MIC) status, an ego-boosting happening for Bangladeshis as a whole.
In international interactions, the country will not be treated as a pan-handler, it will be viewed with some respectability, however smidgen that may be. In the past, countries with per capita income lower than the present per capita income of Bangladesh wielded remarkably high power and commanded universal respect because of their stellar performance in other areas of human life. The present per capita income ensconced Bangladesh to a position from where it can assert its points much more effectively than before.
Bangladesh's carriage in the comity of nations will now depend more on its performance in other areas of social and human development. Here Bangladesh can present itself well. In spite of formidable constraints in terms of resource and structure, the country has garnered remarkable achievements in food security, supply of drinking water, immunisation of children, primary school enrolment, mobile phone penetration, and poverty alleviation through micro-credit.
International dailies and periodicals, which got to the habit of depicting a sordid picture of Bangladesh, have changed their stance. Articles and features highlighting the performance of Bangladesh in the area of human and social development abound in the electronic and print media world over. Bangladesh can offer lot of programs which both rich and poor countries can emulate to their benefit.
The challenges that Bangladesh confronts at this time do not emanate solely from low per capita income or its status as a least developed country; instead these are appurtenances of the convoluted dynamics of social and economic forces working within a reticular structure.
Barring a few city-states, the country's population density is the highest in the world. The land-man ratio is simply unsustainable. Overcrowding coupled with unitary character of the government has rendered the principal city, the capital Dhaka, an impossible tract to negotiate. Pedestrians literally elbow out one another on the foot-paths of the city. The streets are no better.
More serious problems are diversion of agricultural land to construction of homestead, denuding forests, stifling flow of rivers through grabbing their banks, and destruction of environment and habitat to meet the need of increasing population.
The contribution of a productive population, both inside and outside the country notwithstanding, containing the size of population is a daunting challenge which Bangladesh has to address effectively to make the real life of the citizens reasonably comfortable. The absence of strong local government with a robust structure stands in the way of effective decentralisation, a desideratum for good governance in a unitary government.
Two types of variables explain the growth process: real variable and nominal variable. Inflation, accounting algorithm, admissibility of components in the definition of GDP are nominal variables, while production of goods and tangible services mainly constitutes the real variables.
Physical security, environmental coziness, transactional ease, fairness, etc affect the real welfare of citizens though they are not taken effectively in the compilation of per capita income.
With the crossing of the threshold level, Bangladesh will no more be treated as a midget. The prestige of the country will, however, depend on how the citizens and government conduct themselves in transacting their day-to-day business. The soundness of administrative and economic policy, strategy and application will be particularly observed by other countries to make an assessment of country's status.
The macro-economic stability, the law and order situation, corruption indices, empowerment of people, development of democratic institutions, functioning of administrative and legal institutions and evenness of income distribution are particularly monitored by the bi-lateral and multi-lateral forums working in this area. It will be good for the country to demonstrate its superiority in terms of these criteria.
Per capita income is a nominal macro variable, which is supposed to reflect the welfare status of citizens in general. It does not capture the position of individual persons or groups. Nor does it tell anything about the living conditions in the country, the most important thing to assess the comfort and happiness of the citizens.
Dirty high growth is worse than benign moderate growth. Gross national happiness has therefore got currency in the recent past. If our attempt is focused on improving the welfare of citizens, then we should be more concerned about the status of the parameters alluded to in the above paragraph. If the country does well in terms of these indicators, satisfactory rate of growth will automatically follow.
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