US-Pak differences widen
Barack Obama's review of the Afghan-Pakistan policies has created a rift in its relations with Pakistan. The new US representative Richard Holbrooke and the head of US military, Admiral Mike Mullen, came to Islamabad on April 6 for seeking a new modus operandi. The indications were that the new democratic Islamabad would welcome closer cooperation with the US the way the Americans want. The Americans were surprised at the strong differences that emerged in the relationship.
Heading the list of differences was that Pakistanis did not want Predator drone attacks on Pakistan territory anymore, flown from Pakistan's own territory. Islamabad also wanted US government to put an end to the propaganda in the US media and by the think tank community against the integrity of Pakistan army.
The US media has been suggesting that Pakistan is now not a part of the solution of the Afghanistan problems but a part of it. Indeed some US experts think that Pakistan is the epicentre of Islamic insurgency in Afghanistan, as well as in the tribal regions of NWFP and other places in Pakistan.
Pakistanis see the problem to be far more complex. Pakistanis are angry that they are being treated so shabbily after doing their very best in the War against Terror, suffering more casualties than any western country.
The American idea of joint operation was especially disliked because Pakistan saw in it the beginning of the presence of more American troops on Pakistani soil. But Americans are quite right in thinking that Pakistan itself is seriously threatened by Talibanisation.
Already Pakistanis are worried that large chunks of Pakistan territory have become semi-independent, where the writ of Islamabad and Peshawar governments does not really run.
Taliban influence are steadily increasing. They are now knocking at the doors of Peshawar and in Punjab too. The reality is that Punjab is not only self-sufficient in Islamic bigotry but is perhaps far better organised than the NWFP and its tribal areas.
Pakistan is a very important country, strategically. It is a piece of real estate that lies at the junction of several regions in Asia, from Middle Eastern countries on the northern shores of Persian Gulf to the rest of South Asia on the other side with a gateway with Afghanistan to Central Asia, where much of the action is.
This area cannot be allowed to fall into Taliban hands. It is a country of 170 million people and is also a nuclear power. The idea of nuclear bombs falling someday into the hands of Islamic bigots is a danger for the entire west and, what was, 'east.'
But no one really likes it to remain an appendage to American power. Just as the West cannot tolerate Pakistan becoming a part of the grouping led by China and or Russia, major Asian powers cannot be quite happy to see Pakistan remaining a bag carrier of the Americans. It is a very hard problem for all strategists. And much can happen here.
Pakistan has created problems for itself. It has run all kinds of arms races with India. The two countries were programed from their own birth for adversarial roles. Once Pakistan became a nuclear power, it started hurting India badly in Kashmir. There was also another diplomatic rivalry between them over Afghanistan throughout the last 62 years. Even in the 1950s, there was a restrained rivalry in Afghanistan between them.
Pakistan produced Mujahideen, fought a war in Afghanistan and earned ill will of the Afghans of various schools of thought, including the modern middle classes that had been produced by Zahir Shah and the later editions of middle class by communist governments in 1980s.
Afghan nationalism had an anti-Pakistan undertone from the beginning. But the pinnacle of Pakistan's success in Afghanistan was after the Russians had left Afghanistan and Pakistan began by installing up an Islamic government in 1992 it had set up. That lasted no more than a year and a half and Afghanistan dissolved itself into many civil wars.
Pakistan produced another crop of Mujahideen called Taliban and led them to victory in Afghanistan by trickery and military guidance by ISI. They established an Islamic Caliphate under Mullah Muhammad Umar and the whole world knows how reactionary these Taliban were. Everybody knew that the Talibans were a creation of Pakistan and Pakistan had thereby acquired dominant influence in Afghanistan.
After 9/11, the Americans decided to invade and occupy Afghanistan. The Talibans simply disappeared into Pakistan and decided to fight another day. They did exactly this and the process is growing more difficult for America by the day. These Talibans who ran away to Pakistan have created a grave security threat for Pakistan and the ISAF and Nato troops in Afghanistan as well.
America's new policy wanted India, Pakistan and Afghanistan to become operationally one against Islamic Terrorism. India refused to be a part of it for fear that Kashmir issue may thus be reopened. Afghans and Pakistanis are allies but they now cooperate with considerable ill will in their hearts. The Americans are unhappy, especially with Pakistan.
Pakistan has been a financial beneficiary of its long alliance with American power structure and has grown used to inflows of dollars for doing certain American chores. The whole US-Pakistan alliance is based on this basis.
The new government, that the Americans helped return, is now in place. It is as pro-American as the Washington power brokers wanted it to be. But the Pakistan army, an autonomous power centre within Pakistan state, has a somewhat more sensitive skin and is also a shade more patriotic.
While the Pakistani army remains Pentagon's darling, it is uneasily juggling between being under the control of the government and what the autonomy military dictators had given it. The army's power rested on Pakistan's economy not being able to sustain the size of Pakistan's military, perhaps seventh largest army in the world. It requires a lot of foreign exchange that Pakistan cannot spare. This is one of the reasons why it tends to takeover whenever expedient and insists on its big share of resources. The Americans have largely met that cost most of the time.
But this time Washington has insulted and shown a tough face to the Pakistan army for working both sides of the street: working with GIs and also keeping contacts with Taliban. And they claim all the bounties from the US taxpayers!
The Americans trenchantly said that no blank cheques would be given to Pakistan, though a lot more money would be given if it stayed honest. But they would monitor how it is spent. To this Islamabad replied, "we will take or give no blank cheques."
All these differences came to a head on April 6 in Islamabad. Pakistanis did some tough talking that the Americans did not expect. But the Americans did not promise to respect what Pakistan wants, even on the question of extending the drone attacks to Balochistan. It is now to wait and see how things develop and who blinks first.
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