Priorities for the next government

PEOPLE have spoken very clearly about the change that should come about and they need in the state policy and economy and of their abhorance of politics of hatred, religious fundamentalism and communal divide through the Parliamentary election held on December 29 last. The overwhelming mandate that the voters have given to AL or, so to say, the Grand Alliance has increased their share of responsibility of building a new Bangladesh free from hunger and deprivation.
When in a peaceful and credible election the AL led alliance won a landslide victory, BNP chairperson was crying hoarse of wholesale rigging. The country, it appeared, was about to be pushed into a crisis situation by the BNP stalwarts through rejection of the election result with allegations of election engineering without any proof. What is first apprehended of this worrisome situation is that with sort of inspiration from the frustrated BNP the streets of the country could once again become the theatre of violence in the days to come.
It would have been far better if, without engaging herself in the tirade of attack and accusation, the BNP chairperson like McCain, the Republican candidate in the American presidential election, could have accepted the defeat gracefully and urged the people who supported her to join her in not just congratulating the AL chairperson but offering the government to be elected their good will and cooperation.
However, with a global recession looming, there is no chance of Bangladesh escaping its effects. Now the attention of the Prime Minister of the newly elected government should be aimed at reorganizing the power and agriculture sectors in a bid to boost food production. With supply position improving and availability overstripping the need, prices will automatically come down. Unsurprisingly, in absence of job opportunities in other sectors, 50 per cent of the country's total population is still dependent on agriculture. Unhappily, while population boom continues, agricultural production in the country has come down to less than half in just about a decade and export earnings from agricultural goods has come down to 7 per cent from 70 per cent during this time. Despite all these pitfalls, agriculture remains the focus of economic self-sufficiency in the country.
While fisheries sector, especially pond fisheries, is getting some boost, the most neglected area happens to be forestry and its share is now just around 8 per cent giving an unhappy signal. With population increasing by 30 lakh a year and acreage for agricultural activities drastically plummeting, the spectre of foodgrain imports stares the country in the face. Undeniably true, crisis as well as price hike gripped the country because the past alliance government as well as the succeeding CTG lacked the economic vision to foresee the shortage in advance. Taking lesson from the past administration, the newly elected government, by appointing a task force, should accurately estimate the agri output and plan timely import as well as procurement of foodgrain to maintain its buffer stock.
Recalling the fact that food production in 1972 after the liberation of the country stood at one crore ton when the population figure was just 75 million and now with population figure reaching 150 million and the production figure reaching about three crore ton, the shortfall is still acute due to many factors like vile business motive and hoarding. The fact is: the middle is too long and too many are living off it, denying both farmers and consumers affordability. With the growth of population, there has been further fragmentation of land into smaller holdings. Precisely told, the farming sector is fast heading for a collapse in absence of remedial measures like technological breakthrough in terms of high-yielding varieties for foodgrain. Soil fatigue due to over exploitation of nutrients and organic matter, nutrient imbalance due to use of improper combination of fertilizers and non-availability of quality seeds as well as sharp decline in water table due to over dependence on ground water should be taken care of.
In consequence, farmers across the country have taken a beating. Their incomes rose by about 0.30 percent as compared to 5 per cent in other sectors. The newly elected government must think about giving a big assistance to farmers to give a push to agricultural activities. The immediate past alliance government made a boastful claim that the country attained a whopping economic growth during their tenure. But analysis by experts indicated that the growth had not only been low, it was a jobless growth. The most important way to look at the quality of economic growth is by examining the impact of such growth on poverty.
Poverty, as we understand, ought not to be measured in terms of not having enough food or clothing. The true measures of poverty are illiteracy, disease, infant mortality, low life expectancy, gender inequality and class exploitation. Bangladesh has the largest number of poor people in the world and currently they survive on less than a dollar a day. A substantial number of our people do not receive basic healthcare and do not have access to amenities like drinking water, shelter and toilet.
The reason for this sorry state of affairs is: the growth rate in agriculture sector has been low. Land for farming has decreased by about 1 per cent every year and population increased by about 1.5 per cent in the same context. At present land for farming activities has come down to 60 lakh hectare from 90 lakh hectare over the last 30 years. And this situation demands that food production has to be augmented at the rate of 3 per cent every year. With this end in view, the food production target for the year 2008-09 has been fixed at 3 crore and 42 lakh ton which is achievable with the availability of inputs. Past governments over the years spent crores of taka to boost agricultural production but the result has been far below our expectation. If this amount was invested in public works such as irrigation canals or wells, small dams, water-harvesting projects, desilting water bodies, rural roads, and above all, houses for rural poor, it would have triggered a multiplier effect and transformed the economic facade of the country. Shockingly, we do not invest the money, we simply spend it.
The message for the Grand Alliance that is going to form the government within a couple of days is very clear. The government to be formed must try to find out the reason for such a massive voter turn out, especially the women voters that broke all previous records. Hard pressed by poverty, hunger and deprivation, the rural women, who went without food or lived on just one meal a day on most occasions after feeding their children and male members, have turned out in overwhelming numbers, to vote for a change, that could arrest the price hike of food items and essentials and provide them with jobs and work to live on.

Md. Asadullah Khan is a former teacher of physics and Controller of Examinations, BUET.

E- mail : [email protected]