The elite's failure
Over the past decade the Kyoto Protocol has shown us just how difficult it is for countries to make real and deep cuts in their carbon emissions. During this time, emissions have soared by over one percent a year, and are projected to begin rising soon by up to 2.5 percent a year. Emissions are growing beyond imagination and way faster than even worst case scenarios. Every year the science becomes more dire -- abrupt climate change of horrific speed and consequences looms. The Earth System needs cuts of emissions of at least 3 percent a year, and almost undoubtedly more, to avoid civilization ending abrupt and runaway climate change.
Sadly, the truth is simply that the cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases necessary to halt climate change below a dangerous level are now almost certainly beyond what human society can achieve in the timescale required while maintaining the status quo political consensus and economic growth.
Faced with overwhelming science and democratic expressions of public concern, the ruling elite have squandered decades, showing clearly they are incapable of taking the measures necessary to protect the Earth System. At the first sign of ecologically mediated economic downturn, they have jettisoned international political cooperation and urgent domestic measures. Because it would threaten their privileges, the elite have virtually assured destruction of the Earth and doomed the majority of people to hopelessness as we descend into chaos.
It is grotesque that the world's governments have spent tens of trillions of dollars to bail out a failed system that turns rainforests into cheap consumer items, shits carbon into our only atmosphere, and views beautiful life-giving creation only in terms of money for its destruction. This willy-nilly effort to continue a deeply unsustainable economic system amounts essentially to governments directly paying people to consume. These funds could easily have solved every environmental crisis -- climate, forests, water and oceans -- and many other social problems, but instead were unquestioningly given to prop up criminal bankers and the corrupt system which exists to liquidate ecosystems. We can only hope the economic downturn will mean less consumerism and environmental destruction.
Governments are miserably failing to lead. From Australia's 5 per cent carbon reduction target, to Europe's rainforest based biofuel aspirations, to the U.S.'s endless dithering -- the global growth machine has proven unwilling to release its death grip upon power. And while Obama's rhetoric is welcome, in all likelihood the magnitude of ecological change required is beyond what can occur within a majority rule democracy firmly in control of the polluting elite.
Obama is a great man, and appears concerned about climate change, but he is unlikely to overcome the economic and political system's utter suicidal dependence upon growth at all costs in a finite world. We all hope Obama can overcome oil oligarchy rule, and in a time of recession, get the right wing wackos to realize we need to cut carbon emissions by 80 per cent as soon as possible, and put in place a sizable carbon tax. But realistically, it is not going to happen. Obama is certainly better than war and eco-criminal Bush, yet just how much transformational change can a President be expected to make goes right at the privileges of the elite.
One person cannot bring about the transformative changes necessary from within a system whose whole purpose is to destroy ecosystems for increased consumption. He cannot do it alone, but a protest movement and credible revolutionary threat can give him and others in power more room to advance the ball. That is, a credible radical revolutionary threat can increase the political space to carry out difficult policies. Social change has always primarily come about only when the elites are faced with losing their positions of privilege, and must capitulate to avoid destruction.
Industrial, speculative capitalism based upon growth is going to end, along with the over-consumption, one way or another. The only question is whether after there will be habitat and ecosystems for continued human survival. This economic downturn will not be solved through greater liquidation of ecosystems for their resources. We need to return to the land and equitably meeting human needs, as we power down the Earth eating growth machine and begin an era of stewardship and ecological restoration.
It is ludicrous to despair over reductions in economic growth and money for consumption when these are precisely the measures required to bring humanity back into balance with the Earth System. It is difficult to not meet all of the "needs" marketers have hammered into our heads, particularly when our children feel it is their birthright. Yet it is time as parents to steel our will and cut back on consumption so that our children can survive.
The mainstream environmental movement has become an industry that profits from the existence of this myriad of ecological problems. They are fatally compromised and deeply in denial, failing to realize their efforts; even if fully realized, are insufficient by many orders of magnitude. Even the radical groups are confusing being well funded and on TV, with actually being effective at creating sufficient large-scale ecological social change. They completely fail to grasp the enormity of the global environmental challenges, the momentum behind population, consumption and ecosystem loss trends, and the magnitude of action required to save.
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