The US polls revolution and Bangladesh
WHAT happened on 4 November shook the world. The people of the USA spoke this time and ushered in change in the most meaningful and effective mode. The manner, in which this was played out, restored to America its standing at the top of the ladder of moral leadership. The electoral process demonstrated once again that given good governance, fairness and a level playing field, a credible election can be held despite difficulties. Like many others, I felt happy to have been alive on this day and to have savoured this magical moment. It kindled in the hearts of many around the world a spring of hope. It has taken 45 years since Martin Luther King's famous "I have a dream" speech was delivered at Lincoln Memorial, but segregation, discrimination and violent racist abuse has finally come to rest in America. This election, in more ways than one, has been "a huge step for mankind".
Obama, US President-elect is a complex figure. A child of a white mother and a black father, he in his very essence draws together and juxtaposes two of the longest and most important threads in America's national tapestry. He has used his own life and his varied upbringing to reaffirm to the American people that hope is audacious rather than foolish. By merely winning the White House against major odds he has expanded the scope of a happy promise that sets no boundaries for an American citizen to dream a little wider. Nevertheless, there will still be a lot to be done in the coming months.
The President-elect, as is generally agreed, is going to inherit the poisoned chalice of an economy entering a deep and prolonged recession and a soaring budget deficit that will rapidly reach levels not seen in a generation. So far foreigners have continued to fund America's debt needs, but a time could come when foreigners could withhold capital. Obama and his team know that this might set-off another round of financial free-fall. Consequently, what is agreed to by the leaders of G 20 in Washington will be carefully monitored by Obama. The follow-up of this Summit will be like walking through a minefield, camouflaged with interregnum pieties. There is every possibility that we might end up with a strategic shift in US economic policy.
In this context I will not be surprised if Mr. Obama's first stimulus package of US Dollar 200 billion is not used to prop up middle class spending. In all likelihood, it will be used in a public works blitz (on roads, bridges and ports) that will provide much-needed improvements in infrastructure as well as generate employment. This economic relaunch, in that regard, will be similar to that of Roosevelt in the 1930s.
Another area that Mr. Obama is expected to focus on as a priority measure will be the extending of health coverage to the 47 million Americans without health insurance. It is more than likely that the new President and the strong Democratic Congress will ensure that companies participate in this exercise or face tax penalties. Mr. Obama has not forgotten that his mother spent the last months of her life dying from cancer while struggling to pay for treatment.
The new Democratic Administration, keen on creating jobs in the USA is also expected to give attention to the reduction of Business Process Outsourcing. Many, including Obama, have gone on record on their distaste for 'shipping jobs overseas'. If negative persuasive measures are taken in this regard, this will certainly affect India and many other developing countries (including Bangladesh) that have been profiting from such BPO engagement.
The next regime in the USA is expected to pay special attention to two other areas -- labour and environmental standards. Mr. Obama has already made it clear that countries that repress trade unions or breach eco rules will face the risk of tariffs. Our BGMEA, the BTMA, the BKMEA and the foreign investors in the EPZ in Bangladesh might like to pre-emotively take necessary action in this regard.
Mr. Obama also plans to meet extra expenditure required for a cleaner environment and a smaller carbon footprint by generating more revenue from additional taxes on windfall profit in the oil sector, stiff rises on fuel duty, and more emphasis on renewable sources of green energy (solar, wind power, bio-fuel and nuclear). It is estimated that a US Dollar 150 billion fund will be created for this purpose with the eventual aim of slashing America's dependence on imported oil.
For a world that is certainly more divided and dangerous than at any time since the first half of the 20th century, we now have a moment of hope and an opportunity to build meaningful bridges. One expects that this will be translated into practice in Iraq, Afghanistan and in the resolving of expectations in Palestine. In the Middle East in particular, one anticipates that there will be a much higher level of US engagement, reversing the arms-length ambivalence that has characterized much of the Bush Administration's policies. The President-elect has made it clear that his Administration would be willing to talk directly with Syria and Iran, both pariahs in the eyes of the Bush White House. Obama's advisers feel they can draw Syria out of Iran's influence by promising investment and a land-for-peace exchange (regarding Golan Heights), thus guaranteeing Israel's security. Whatever the premise, one hopes that the Obama team will rely more on multilateralism and abiding by international legal principles than unilateralism. There will be hurdles but they will have to be overcome.
One cannot conclude observations on the US election and the Obama victory without also reflecting on the graciousness shown in equal measure in post-election speeches by both the victor and Mr. McCain.
I have always believed in politicians being constructive, positive and bi-partisan in their approach to solving problems. Unfortunately, Bangladeshi politicians have failed to demonstrate the necessary wisdom in this regard. Even now, with elections just a few days away, some political parties are resorting to old tactics and are trying to create obstacles towards the holding of a credible election. Veiled threats are again becoming the norm and raising anxiety levels about the post-election scenario. The BNP-Alliance leadership in particular should take lessons from the recently concluded US Presidential election as well as the ones recently held in Maldives, Nepal and Pakistan.
Politicians in our country must understand that people from all walks of life can be inspired to bring about qualitative changes in governance. It is a question of attitudes. We also have to realise that proper functioning of democracy within and outside the parliament is the only way to achieve national solidarity and move the nation forward. Confrontational politics must be avoided for achieving poverty reduction and further development in socio-economic sectors. Time has come for our politicians to turn the leaf and to ensure for the people the fundamental values and rights -- for which millions paid with their lives during our War of Liberation. I am confident that like the Americans, we also can. The time for an ostrich syndrome is over.
We must do this not only for our own welfare but also for the sake of our future generations.
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