US presidential election
I am writing from Boston, Massachusetts. There are six days left before the presidential election. All polls show Senator Barack Obama leading against Senator John McCain. Mr. Obama has a comfortable lead in Electoral Votes that determine the winner. Winning 270 Electoral Votes is enough, as there are a total of 538 Electoral Votes. If Senator Obama and McCain win in all the states that were won by Senator Kerry and President Bush respectively in 2004 presidential election, Senator Obama will win 252 Electoral Votes and Senator McCain will win 286 Electoral Votes. In that scenario, Senator McCain will win. But this time, Senator Obama is running very strong in some states that were won by President Bush 4 years ago. For example, considering a very conservative estimate, Senator Obama is leading by a comfortable margin over Senator McCain in Iowa (7 Electoral Votes), New Mexico (5 Electoral Votes), Colorado (9 electoral Votes), Virginia (13 Electoral Votes) and if Obama wins in these 4 states, he will have 286 Electoral Votes compared with John McCain's 252 Electoral Votes.
It means Obama can lose in Ohio and Florida and still win the election. In 2004, Senator Kerry lost both Ohio (20 Electoral Votes) and Florida (27 Electoral Votes), but won Pennsylvania (21 Electoral Votes). But if John McCain wins Pennsylvania (21 Electoral Votes), he will have 273 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama will have 265 Electoral Votes. The McCain campaign is trying hard to pull off an upset win in Pennsylvania and hoping that Barack Obama will lose in both Ohio and Florida. Polls suggest that Obama is leading in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Especially in Pennsylvania, Obama's lead is wider than in Ohio and Florida. In addition to that, Obama is doing well in some states (that President George Bush won) like Missouri (11 Electoral Votes), North Carolina (15 Electoral Votes), Nevada (5 Electoral Votes), Indiana (11 Electoral Votes), North Dakota (3 Electoral Votes), Georgia (15 Electoral Votes), etc.
All developments suggest a Barack Obama win in which case he would bag between 273-380 Electoral Votes. But John McCain is a fighter and his campaign is trying hard to pull off an upset win. McCain would bag between 271-286 Electoral Votes, should he win. This is my overall analysis of the upcoming election.
I am a Bangladeshi American and a registered Democrat, but I have done my best to give you a fair analysis.
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