Rising poverty
FOUR with six zeroes looks tidy as a figure, but it gives us an uneasy feeling when the World Bank says that four million people in the country have been pushed back further below the poverty line, due to abnormal rise in food price. The WB on August 26 said that the food price shock is projected to have raised poverty rate by around three percent from the baseline poverty rate of 40 percent in 2005.
In his presentation on "Bangladesh: The Economics of Food Crisis," the WB lead economist Vinaya Swaroop said, that WB's recent poverty report on Bangladesh suggests that the stronger GDP growth between 2005 and 2008 was expected to reduce poverty by around five percent, but the food price shock has raised poverty rate by around three percent.
Referring to 2005 household income and expenditure data of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the WB economist said that poverty rate declined to 40 percent in 2005 from 49 percent in 2000, because of strong economic growth.
Between January 2007 and March 2008, the gross income of the poor decreased by 36.7 percent mainly due to price surge of food items, pushing 25 lakh households below the poverty line, observed the Centre for Policy Dialogue recently.
The Chronic Poverty Report 2008-09, launched in July by the Chronic Poverty Research Centre, also presented a grim picture of extreme poverty in the country. According to the report, around three crore people in the country live in extreme poverty.
Differing with the official ones, the leading economists of the country believe that recent skyrocketing of the prices of essentials has forced another three to four crore people under the poverty line.
Bangladesh got a bumper boro harvest this year, and the government hoped that this bumper crop production would somehow relieve them of the economic and political crisis. But the bumper boro harvest did not help the government to shield local market from global food price rise.
The government set a target to procure 12 lakh tons of rice and 3 lakh tons of paddy at the rate of Tk. 28 and Tk. 18 per kg respectively in the crop season to build up a food buffer stock and geared up all relevant agencies under its control to make the boro procurement drive a success. But only a half of the procurement target has been achieved so far in the three-month drive that ended on August 31.
The WB economist underscored the need for increasing rice production of the country, which is 40 percent lower than that of China, and 20 percent lower than that of Vietnam. He, however, said that raising yields has a huge potential in Bangladesh and productivity can be increased by 30 to 60 percent by using hybrid seeds, by rationalising input utilisation, and by improving other crop management procedures.
The food production of the country, both rice and wheat, was barely 100 lakh tons in the year 1971-72. Bangladesh attained self-sufficiency in food production in 1999-2000, when the country's gross production in rice and wheat reached at 249 lakh tons.
The food grain production reached nearly 311 lakh tons in 2006-2007, which was probably the country's highest food production since independence. But the trend of self-sufficiency in food production could not be sustained due to ever increasing consumption.
Bangladesh can produce seven crore tons of rice a year, more than double the present quantity, by ensuring proper irrigation, use of fertiliser, and bringing fallow lands under cultivation. This was revealed in a study conducted by M. Eftekharul Alam, assistant chief engineer of BADC, who carried out the study for more than two decades.
The country now grows nearly three crore tons of rice a year with boro output 3.66 tons per hectare and amon a little above two tons. But boro yield can be raised to six tons and amon output to five tons a hectare, the study said.
A yield gap of more than two tons now exists between the present and potential output per hectare, which can be overcome by ensuring proper irrigation and rationalising other input utilisation.
The government of China undertook a decade long (2001-2010) development-oriented program named Poverty Reduction Program for Rural China with a view to boost its rural economy by promoting agriculture-based industries. It also launched manpower development programs in the rural areas to cater the needs of trained manpower in the urban areas.
The number of chronic poor in China decreased to 23.65 million in 2005 from 32 million in 2000 after the implementation of its Poverty Reduction Program. This approach is very relevant for Bangladesh, as the country is still searching for a potential program for poverty alleviation.
Indian government has launched a good number of programs, including the Rashtriya Krishi Bikas for Rs. 25,000 crore, Food Security Mission for Rs. 5,000 crore and Horticulture Mission for Rs. 20,000 crore to promote agricultural growth and safeguard food security.
Philippines is another country that is spending an additional $36.12 million on higher yielding rice varieties and also implementing measures to avoid a shortage of the staple cereal. It has allocated an additional 1.5 billion pesos to buy higher yielding rice seeds, to be distributed among the farmers, to increase rice production. The Philippines has also announced a ban on converting farmland for other uses in the latest government move to cut rice import.
The small farm management revolution in China, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea has combined technologies of "mass production" and "production by masses" and stimulated farmers with marginal and small holdings to work for their income security in the rural areas and food security for the nation.
Self-sufficiency in foodgrain has gained much importance in order to ensure survival of the rural and marginal masses living in poverty. Bangladesh can attain self-sufficiency in food production, provided the government ensures supply of quality seeds, fertiliser, diesel and electricity, and other inputs to farmers in time at affordable prices.
The government has to disseminate validated agricultural information to farmers and make sure that those are updated with latest technologies to get the best harvest and protect crops from any diseases. Self-sufficiency in food can cause substantial poverty reduction as it is, because of food price shock.
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