Path to Asian era

Having caught the international community off guard with its long-range rocket launch on Wednesday, North Korea is pushing neighbouring powers into another guessing game over whether it will go ahead with a third nuclear test. Pyongyang has a record of having done so in the wake of missile firings in 2006 and 2009.
The impoverished regime under its young leader Kim Jong-un may believe the provocative acts in defiance of international pressure will help shore it up and bring more bargaining chips into its hands. The likelihood, however, is that such a confrontational course will only lead to advancing the possible collapse of the regime under strengthened international sanctions, aggravating the security situation on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia.
As some observers note, Pyongyang may not have made an exact calculation of the impact its rocket launch, which seemed mainly aimed at heightening Kim's stature and consolidating his power, would have on the key elections in Japan and South Korea to be held within three days of each other next week.
It has yet to be seen in which direction the rocket launch will tilt the balance between the conservative and liberal contenders in South Korea's presidential poll next Wednesday. But it is certain that Pyongyang's latest provocation will serve to cement the prospect of Japan's right-wing political forces winning the parliamentary election Sunday.
Pyongyang's rocket launch, coupled with the possibility of its third nuclear test, will help strengthen Japanese conservative politicians' voices for military buildup. Shinzo Abe, leader of the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party, who is expected to return to the premiership he held for a year in 2006-07, has vowed to seek the revision of Japan's pacifist constitution to have a full-fledged military. Some conservative candidates for the lower house election have gone further to demand that Japan should be nuclear-armed.
Tokyo's push for strengthening its military power and role found an unexpected supporter early this week. Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario reportedly said that his country would welcome a rearmed Japan as a counterweight to China's growing military assertiveness in the region. His statement, which was not expected to come from the top diplomat of a nation occupied by Japan for three years from 1941, reflects the Philippine government's concerns about Beijing's high-handedness in their territorial dispute over a group of islets in the South China Sea.
China may feel it somewhat awkward to blame the Philippines and other Southeast Asian neighbours for supporting Japan's military buildup when it is pushing them overboard by laying claim to virtually all areas of the disputed sea. It was also the Japanese public's fear of an increasingly assertive China that has turned them in favour of right-wing politicians with a nationalistic agenda.
With South Korea and Japan changing governments following China's power transition last month, it may be a time that the three nations and some Southeast Asian countries rethink how they could reduce confrontation and enhance cooperation to usher in the Asian century. A US intelligence assessment of global trends, released this week, forecast Asia will surpass North America and Europe combined by 2030 in terms of economic size. A prosperous Asia might turn into reality only when regional powers contain risks of confrontation and focus on building harmony in pursuit of common interests.
China should recognise its acts could be its worst enemy and reintroduce the international pragmatism that has served so well its "peaceful rise" over the past decades. Japanese leaders should realise that the path toward blind nationalism cannot lead them to the goal of building a country that makes its people proud of being born there. The Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations need to consider more fundamental ways to secure regional stability, rather than prodding Japan to go militaristic.
The next administration in Seoul should have a far-sighted diplomatic strategy for assuming a role in achieving a prosperous and harmonious Asia beyond managing conflicts on the peninsula.

© The Korea Herald (South Korea). All rights reserved. Reprinted by arrangement with Asia News Netwrok.