As Syria explodes, all eyes are on its chemical weapons
The Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad has taken a serious beating in recent days on just about all fronts, from the defections of military top brass and diplomats, to the assassination of at least three of the president's inner circle.
While hardly a day has gone by without reports of killings as the 16-month-old civil war rages on, Wednesday saw the deaths of several key figures in an incident that could become the game-changer as fighting reached the heart of Damascus.
Part of the capital has turned into a war zone and the victims include al-Assad's brother-in-law and architect of his bloody crackdown, deputy defence minister Assef Shawkat.
Also killed on Wednesday were the interior minister and the defence minister, and the fact that they were targeted at national security headquarters suggests the rebels not only have the capacity to maintain their campaign in the capital but the ability to strike at the heart of the regime's most secure strongholds.
Calling this a setback for the al-Assad regime would be an understatement. US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta said the situation was "rapidly spinning out of control."
But the guerrilla war could turn into a conventional one now that the rebels control certain parts of the capital along with pockets of the country elsewhere. Conventional military assaults could escalate as heavier artillery is deployed and the regime unleashes the full power of the air force in a desperate bid to defeat the rebels.
If the past 16 months tells us anything, it is that al-Assad has no qualms about employing "dirty tactics," and is likely to inflict more deadly violence on innocent people as he fights to maintain his grip on Syria.
Regrettably, the international community has not been able to respond to the devastating developments on the ground. But that does not mean it doesn't have real concerns. After all, Syria has one of the largest stockpiles of chemical weapons in the Middle East.
Needless to say, the greater the chaos in the country, the greater the chance that these weapons could fall into the hands of terrorists. There is also the chance that the Syrian regime will use them. The chemicals in the regime's possession include blister agents and nerve gas that have been inserted in bombs and missile warheads.
Details of their location are sketchy, but if al-Assad decides to give the green light for their use, one can be certain that some will be launched before they can be destroyed.
East Asia has been witness to the devastation that chemical weapons can wreak on human life. In 1995 Japan's Aum Shinrikyo cult released nerve agents in Tokyo subway cars, killing 13 people and injuring several hundred. Along with "doomsday cults," terrorist organisations would be keen to get their hands on such chemical weapons. Syria is not a signatory of the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention and it is very unlikely that the regime will permit international inspectors to check these stockpiles.
If the United Nations and the international community are unable to agree on joint action towards a resolution of the war in Syria, perhaps they could at least find common ground on the issue of its chemical weapons. Russia, with its friendly policy towards the al-Assad regime, is in the best position to help develop a plan to address this issue. Turning a blind eye to the problem of chemical weapons in the country is out of the question now that the situation is descending into all-out war. Ignore this issue and there could be serious implications even after the killing in Syria stops.
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