Afghanistan may turn to failed state as insurgency spreads
Afghanistan risks becoming a failed state if Nato troops do not defeat the Taliban, boosting Islamist extremism worldwide, a study said yesterday, also warning that the West lacked resources.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) report lamented growing signs that the insurgency is expanding from the south of Afghanistan into northern provinces, with rebels learning lessons from Iraq.
Elsewhere the London-based think tank noted progress by the so-called surge in Iraq, but warned that US and other troops face being in the country for a generation.
On Afghanistan, the IISS annual study said there was a general acceptance that defeating the militants was of international importance and would require long-term, joined-up commitments from all countries involved.
But the Nato operation was most at risk where its technical advantage was reduced, particularly in eastern Afghanistan where troops have been engaged in intense fighting with militia, the IISS study "The Military Balance 2008" said.
"Failure in these actions would risk boosting Islamic extremism (not just in Afghanistan), would produce a failed state in an area of strategic importance, and would offer safe haven to terrorist organisations and the narcotics trade.
"It would also undermine the credibility of Nato in its first major out-of-area combat operation," the study said.
The IISS said that although Nato 41,000-strong force was bolstering President Hamid Karzai's fledgling government, the administration "still lacks authority in much of the country".
The report echoed warnings last week from two US think-tanks -- the Atlantic Council of the United States and the Afghanistan Study Group -- which said troop levels had to be ramped up and major changes had to be implemented urgently.
Publication of the IISS report comes a day before US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrives in Britain for talks on NATO and Afghanistan after calls from both countries for all members of the alliance to pull their weight.
Germany and France are among nations particularly criticised for failing to send forces to areas where fighting is the most intense. Military commanders in Afghanistan have estimated that an extra 7,500 troops are necessary.
On Iraq, where US President George W. Bush announced a "surge" of about 30,000 American troops to the 132,000 already in the country a year ago, the IISS said the security situation remains "highly volatile".
But although violence towards military and civilians was "dramatically" down, "criminality, intra-communal military violence and sectarian strife remain commonplace, and still undermine political and economic initiatives".
And it warned that "even if (troop) reductions can happen in 2008, it is estimated that President Bush's successor will inherit a situation whereby at least 100,000 troops are still stationed in Iraq.”
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