Nuclear Iran risks becoming a pariah nation
Photo: Knowledge.allianz.com
Before North Korea exploded a nuclear device, it was argued that if North Korea was allowed to go nuclear, it would destabilise the Asia-Pacific region. To counter a nuclear-armed North Korea, Japan would also go nuclear, raising China's historical fear about Japan. South Korea, fearing a North Korean invasion, would also go nuclear and the whole region would see a nuclear arms race similar to Soviet-American nuclear arms race during the Cold War era. Many neo-conservatives in the U.S. had called for a pre-emptive strike on North Korea before it developed the bomb.
Well, North Korea did explode its nuclear device, but nothing happened. Today, North Korea, despite its nuclear arsenal, remains a destitute nation, heavily dependent on China for economic survival. And China is increasingly reluctant to prop it up. Instead of triggering a nuclear arms race between Japan and China, Japan has abandoned nuclear power in the aftermath of Fukushima.
Similarly, a nuclear-armed Iran is likely to become an international pariah. Sunni Arab nations are likely to move closer to the U.S. to counter Iran's nuclear threat. Iran's main ally Shiite minority regime in Syria is on the verge of collapse and a government led by the Sunni majority is likely to be hostile to Shiite Iran. As for Israel, its massive nuclear arsenal is enough to deter Iran's minuscule nuclear capability. This is why, despite sabre-rattling, Israel is highly unlikely to carry out any pre-emptive strike because it will be both difficult and unnecessary.
Like nuclear-armed pariah North Korea, a nuclear-armed Iran will become an international pariah.
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