Burma on the cusp of change
Photo: AFP
Burma is on the cusp of change, according to diplomats based in Rangoon. There are continuous signs that the country's new quasi-civilian government is pursuing a real transition to democracy. Last week's release of more than two hundred political prisoners, including the renowned comedian Zaganar, is the latest signal that the new government is serious about political reform. Another batch of at least two hundred political detainees will be freed before the end of the month said a senior government minister on condition of anonymity.
In the past few months there has been growing signs that the new government formed more six months ago is serious about economic and political reform. "There is enough to make us cautiously optimistic, with the stress on optimistic," the head of the International Labour Organization in Rangoon told The Daily Star recently.
The winds of change are certainly beginning to blow through the country and real change seems to be in the pipeline. The key to this is the new president's willingness to accommodate the pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. This rapprochement between Thein Sein and Aung San Suu Kyi -- after their first meeting two months ago -- seems to have set a new tone for Burma's political future.
Even the pro-democracy icon, Aung San Suu Kyi seems to be more sanguine than before. "I believe we have reached a point where there is an opportunity for change," she told a small crowd of supporters gather outside the National League for Democracy's headquarters in Rangoon last month -- on the occasion of the International Day of Democracy.
"I think it would be fair to say that winds of change are clearly blowing through Burma. The extent of it is still unclear, but everyone who's gone there recognises that there are changes," US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell said told reporters in Bangkok earlier this month.
However hints of real change continue to seep out of the regime -- though without any formal announcements. To mark democracy day, the government unblocked many international news sites, including the Bangkok Post, the BBC, the exile-run Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), the Burmese language broadcasts of Radio Free Asia and Voice of America, all of which have been systematically blocked for more than two decades. This follows earlier relaxation of media censorship, including allowing access to Skye, Yahoo and Youtube.
Local editors and journalists have told The Daily Star that censorship has been virtually lifted, except in a few political sensitive areas. The head of the press scrutiny board, which polices local publications Tint Swe recently went on record calling foa an end to all press censorship.
There is certainly a new attitude amongst government ministers according to diplomats and UN officials who have been dealing with them for years. "Ministers are far more responsive than before," the ILO's Steve Marshall said in an interview with The Daily Star. "There's a real discussion now unlike under the previous regime. Decisions do not have to be passed back up to be approved."
The government has even enacted a new labour law which makes trade unions and limited strikes legal -- something that the former regime would never have allowed. The government -- for the first time since the military seized power in a bloody coup more than 23 years ago -- is making concerted efforts to tackle the country's poverty.
The newly elected parliament -- though many MPs owe their seats to a manipulated vote last November's election -- is beginning to function. The role of the parliament is also becoming crucial, as the speaker of the lower house, former general, Thura Shwe Mann tries to boost its influence -- and of course strengthen his role in government at the same time.
The debate in the parliament is much freer than it was when it first met in January. Significant motions have been passed, including calling for the release of political detainees. Oversight committees have been formed -- along the lines of the US Congressional system -- to make government more transparent and accountable.
The list of small changes and signs is endless. But the most critical is that the country's new quasi-civilian leader is looking to involve the democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi in the country's political future -- albeit tentatively.
The recent landmark talks between the pro-democracy leader and President Thein Sein seem to set the pace for significant reforms, though much will depend on the government releasing all the political prisoners -- so far only 218 out of an estimated two thousand political detainees have been freed. There is no doubt though that the historic meeting between the Nobel Peace Laureate and the President in Naypyidaw in July signalled a real shift, especially on the part of the government.
While Aung San Suu Kyi was obviously happy with the outcome, she has revealed few details of their talks. There seems to have been a tacit agreement between the two not to reveal the content of their discussions. The two met privately -- "four-eyes," as Asian diplomats like to call it -- for a little over an hour. Few others have had that kind of access to the Burmese leader.
Both came out of the meeting relaxed and smiling. More importantly, a photo of General Aung San the opposition leader's father -- was purposely hanging in the presidential palace in which they met, according to Burmese government officials.
In the past decade, the former ruling general Than Shwe had tried to obliterate his name and image. But Thein Sein has pointedly shown his respect for the independence hero."It was important to show the Lady that we are willing to work with her," said a government official close to the president. "We see her as a potential partner, not an adversary."
In the meeting, Thein Sein talked about the role she could play in the future, according to sources in Naypyidaw. It was not a negotiation, but a trust-building meeting in which both leaders laid out some scenarios that could help the process of genuine reform and democracy take root, according to Burmese government sources. Thein Sein assured the pro-democracy leader that although her party is currently illegal, it would be left alone and she would be free to travel wherever she wants.
He also hinted that constitutional change would also be considered in due course. The NLD strongly objects to the pro-military constitution -- which was adopted in a sham referendum in 2008. It is this which largely caused the NLD to refuse to contest last year's elections.
She was treated as a VVIP, a Burmese academic at Aung San Suu Kyi's meeting with government ministers and advisors before-hand told this author. She was greeted warmly -- although not by all, as the hardliners opposed to Thein Sein's new era were aghast. The President's wife later invited her to an informal working dinner with other ministers' wives at the end of the day. The president's spouse is a keen admirer of the Lady, according to family friends.
Of course the issue of political prisoners was high on the agenda for the pro-democracy leader, who told her host that there could be no movement forward without their release first. Thein Sein knows that this is also the key to improved relations with the outside world -- and even with their neighbours and supporters in Asean. It would certainly smooth the path to Burma being confirmed as Asean chairman for 2014 later this year.
The president has kept the opposition leader up-dated on the forthcoming releases, according to NLD sources. But the release of political prisoners remains a delicate and vexed issue. General Than Shwe has made it clear on at least two occasions -- once just after the elections last year and again earlier this year before Thein Sein took over the reins of government -- that the release of political prisoners and the jailed military intelligence officers was not an option. Both Thura Shwe Man and Maung Aye tried to convince him to make the gesture, but he remained intransigent.
Of course, the recent motion to free political prisoners adopted by parliament by a large majority may have set the seal on the release of some them at least in the near future. It was highly significant that it was the speaker of the lower house, Thura Shwe Mann -- the former third top general in the junta's army -- that steered this through parliament.
When it looked like the motion was going to be rejected, the speaker called a 15-minute recess using the fact that the computer screens which show the voting results was down. During the break he convinced the military MPs -- who make up 25% of the parliament, a quota set be the new constitution adopted in a sham referendum more than three years ago -- to support the proposal. As a result it passed with a large majority.
Thura Shwe Mann is strongly supporting the president, according to sources close to him. He sees the issue of the release of political prisoners as something he can do which would make a difference -- both domestically and internationally. And the signs are that they will be released in the next few days, after the current parliamentary session finishes.
This is crucial, for the government cannot be seen to be bowing to international pressure. The freeing of these political activists is a necessary step in the democratic transition that Thein Sein says he is committed to. They have to be freed before the planned bye-elections -- possibly in November -- take place. And of course it is believed that the President promised Aung San Suu Kyi this, when they met last month.
But the most important thing to come out of the meeting, and which may have turned the page in Burma's long struggle for democracy, is the strong personal warmth that has developed between Aung San Suu Kyi and Thein Sein. This seems certain to set the stage for future cooperation. There are several personal matters that the two exchanged views on, according to sources in the Burmese government. Crucially Thein Sein has intervened to save the house in which Aung San and his family lived in Pymina, while he was leading the battle against the British for independence.
It is run down and was about to be demolished. Thein Sein intervened recently to ensure the building is left standing and is reportedly paying for its refurbishment. Aung San Suu Kyi has reportedly sent the president an old photo of the house with her standing outside it when she was a very young child in appreciation for his actions.
Aung San Suu Kyi also wants her youngest son, Kim Aris -- who has visited her in Rangoon several times now since her release last November -- to come to live in Burma and government sources told The Daily Star that he will be given a Burmese passport in the near future. This issue was initially broached between the pro-democracy leader and the president at their first meeting.
So it seems certain that the meeting has set the scene for significant changes in the future, including a role for Aung San Suu Kyi. Diplomats in Rangoon who have met the Lady recently all say she is confident about the future and optimistic about the possibility of genuine change. Thein Sein can be trusted, he is trying to reform the country, and needs support, she told them recently.
But the current optimism needs to be tempered, said a senior liberal-minded minister. The hardliners are still waiting in the wings to pounce, if they are given an opportunity to flex their muscles. These same hardliners -- led by the vice-president Thin Aung Mying Oo -- were not happy to see Thein Sein meet the Lady. Some ministers did not even know the meeting had taken place until they saw on the evening television news.
Many diplomats and analysts believe there is a real rapprochement under way. But Aung San Suu Kyi role is going to be crucial. She is obviously willing to support the president's reform process. But whether the next big step is taken will depend on Thein Sein and the government releasing most of the political prisoners, including the high profile activists. If this happens the NLD is expected to contest the forty parliamentary bye-elections -- scheduled for late November or early December -- with even Aung San Suu Kyi running.
While for the moment the signs are good, the hardliners are still lurking in the background ready to spring. "If we fail, we'll end up in jail," said a senior member of the government recently, on condition of anonymity.
Another military coup is also possible, if the army can be convinced that these changes are not in the interests of peace and stability. For the moment the army chief is supporting both the President and the Speaker of the lower house, but the army's continued support is by no means certain -- especially if the former military supremo Than Shwe decides to intervene.
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