Indo - Afghan strategic partnership: Background factors

Photo: globalsecurity.org

In the international system no change is possible without its agents. Matsya Nyaya or law of fishes is the defining feature of this system which means in this anarchic world 'big fishes eat up the small fishes'. It is in the power game of big and powerful states; small states seek alliance with other states to survive. Likewise, the war-torn Afghanistan is not exception in that case. It now becomes the epicenter of global powers conflict. As the United States and China located at the core of the game, India and Pakistan are playing the semi-peripheral role making Afghanistan a chessboard in the periphery. It is much like the 'great game'the geopolitical struggle fought between the British and the Russian.
Historically, Pakistan's geographic constraints, conventional and nuclear vis-a-vis India and most importantly its historic obsession to offset the latter's predominance in the region determines the patterns of its involvement in Afghanistan. Strategically, Pakistan imagined Afghanistan as the strategic depth to secure its land in its war against India and to launch a counter- offensive. Tactically, it means setting up 'client regimes' in Kabul to stabilize Pakistan's western frontiers, inhabited by Pashtuns and Balochis who have a hidden agenda of independent states of their own and, supporting Islamist militias among the Pashtun to neutralize the seeds of nationalism within its borders. On the other hand, Afghanistan is a landlocked country and shares a border with Pakistan. It needs access to Arabian Sea through Pakistan. This dependence works as the moderating factor in Afghan policy with its eastern neighbor. In recent years, a sentiment within the Afghan population in general and those who are in the government has grown that, Pakistan is scapegoating its neighbor for its own interests. It is playing a double game of fighting against terrorists and sheltering the Islamist militias to ensure its presence inside Afghanistan. After the Laden's incidence the United States and Afghan government have been suspicious of Islamabad's intentions from its involvement in the war against Taliban. The United States, after having released that sitting with Taliban is the best way to get rid of the problem in Afghanistan, invested a lot in bringing Taliban to the negotiation table. Former president Burhanuddin Rabbani was appointed as peace envoy to Taliban for backdoor negotiation. But, on 20th September, 2011, he was killed in a suicide bombing. Both the Afghan government and the US finger-pointed to ISI for plotting the killing of the peace envoy. The relations between these three countries worsened when Pakistan furiously reacted to this accusation.
The relevance of strategic partnership deal with India comes from the idea that the Afghan government should diminish the dependence on Pakistan, and make a balance in its relations with neighbors. From the US perspective, without peace between the India and Pakistan, peace in Afghanistan is not possible. USA thinks that, the legitimate presence of India in Kabul will be disempowering Pakistan in dealing with its neighbor. A disempowered and back-footed Pakistan would find negotiation with India best way to continue its presence in Afghanistan. Hamid Karzai, while in India, condemned Pakistan for using terror as an instrument of policy against his people. It is the same allegation India has been making in recent years against Pakistan. Both leaders in a friendly atmosphere in Delhi on 4th October signed a wide-ranging strategic partnership agreement. It includes agreement to expand trade relations, affirmation of Kabul's support for India's permanent seat in the UN Security Council and most significantly, agreement from India to assist in training, equipping and building capacity of Afghan National Security Forces. The two countries are looking for institutionalizing the relationship so that India can help in the areas of education, development, cultural communication which India says 'civilisation ties with Afghanistan'.
From the perspective of power politics, though tensions are trilateral, the US-China and Sino-Indian factors are playing in the background. The United States needs to check the rise of China as a solely dominant regional power in this region. China's rise affects US because of what international relations scholars say "power transition". The ascending powers have always challenged the position of dominant power in the international system. The stunning growth of Chinese economy and its growing military muscle prompt the declining US to anticipate that, a powerful India is required to contain rapidly growing Chinese economic and political rise across the world in general and in Asia in particular. The United States opted for an 'offshore balancing strategy' vis-a-vis China in South Asia. It underlies the idea that, as the United States is geographically distant from China; it has the option of staying out of South Asian security rivalries and encouraging Beijing's neighbor to assume the risks and cost of stopping China from attaining regional hegemony. Therefore it wants India to play a larger role in Afghanistan by building a security cooperation following the withdrawal of US forces in 2014. A dominant India will check rise of China as well as stop the Pakistani disguised game of rendering permanent wounds for USA in Afghanistan. China already has put its foothold in Afghanistan. Very recently, China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), the largest state-owned Chinese company, has got the rights to explore and develop oil fields in Afghanistan's Amu Darya basin. Writing in Foreign Policy, Alexander Benard and Eli Sugarman informed that Amu Darya contains five known fields with 80 million barrels of crude oil, which amounts to 11,000 barrels per day for 20 years. Analysts say that, Pakistan wants China to enter Afghanistan. It would prevent India's hegemony in the region giving Pakistan more leverage in Kabul. A dominant China would limit the control of United States over Pakistan. The entire world has seen a power play by China a flurry of diplomatic activity immediately after United States threatened Pakistan of strong punishment. China's Public Security Minister Meng Jianzhu went in Islamabad and reaffirmed China's continuing support for Pakistan in its fight against militancy and the promotion of regional peace and stability. It was a clear message from Pakistan to USA that, it would no longer rely on USA for its security. China let the USA and India know that, China is beside Pakistan in the event of Indo-US strategic partnership.
Whatever the nature of support for Pakistan from China, it is a big question how longer China would back up a country which uses terror as its foreign policy tools. China's goal is to enhance its economic development. It would not tolerate Pakistan's policy of assisting Islamist militias in Afghanistan that could affect Chinese investment there. It is a great irony that, it focused on terrorism and undermined people centered approach to its neighbor. Today Pakistan understands that, the game it played in Afghanistan was a zero sum and it would be more isolated in the years to come.

The writer is a Research Analyst, BIPSS.