Camp David Accords threatened?
A very worrying incident shook both sides of the Suez Canal recently.
On August 17, a small group of extremists, known as "Popular Resistance Committee," from Gaza infiltrated into Sinai (Egypt) and then crossed into Israel and attacked a bus carrying Israeli soldiers and civilians. Eight Israelis, including two soldiers, were killed and 30 injured.
Israel retaliated swiftly and killed four extremists and five Egyptian border policemen. Israeli air force also attacked targets in Gaza killing more than fifteen Palestinians including children. The Peace Treaty between Egypt and Israel signed in 1979 following the Camp David Accords, suddenly seemed to be on the rocks.
The killing of Egyptian soldiers could not have come at a worse time. Egypt is going through political and economic turmoil. Since the Tahrir Square revolution and ouster of Hosni Mubarak, the country is being steered by the Egyptian Army towards a civilian democratic political system. People, particularly the younger generation, have been impatient demanding a new constitution and free elections.
The six-decade-long Palestinian struggle for a homeland enjoys open sympathy from all sections of Egyptian people. The killing of five soldiers and Israeli bombing of Gaza enraged the already angry Cairo residents. Thousands descended on to the streets and marched towards the Israeli Embassy, perched on the top floor of a twenty-storied building in Giza (West bank of Nile in Cairo), demanding expulsion of the Israeli ambassador and scrapping of the 1979 Peace Treaty. Youths burned the Israeli flag and replaced it with the Egyptian flag. The military and police cordoned off the area but did not engage the demonstrators. Similar demonstration also took place in Alexandria.
Indignant and angry, the interim Egyptian government immediately asked Israel for a written apology, compensation for the killed soldiers and a joint investigation into the incident. It also strongly asked Israel to stop attacking Gaza. Cairo also threatened to recall its ambassador from Tel Aviv.
Realising the gravity of the situation, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barack quickly issued a verbal apology and agreed to a joint investigation into the killing of the five soldiers.
Washington, the UN Secretary General and European capitals reacted swiftly, requesting both sides to calm down.
Since the revolution last February, Egypt, the largest Arab nation and bulwark of stability in the Middle East, has perceptibly moved away from the line which Hosni Mubarak strictly followed for thirty years. Several developments bear this drift.
The anti-Israel elements Egypt have been getting organised and have been infiltrating the Sinai region. Their first target was the gas pipeline that supplies Egyptian gas to Israel and Jordan. Since February, the pipeline has come under attack four times, the latest one being on July 3.
Palestinian group "Fatah" (controlling the West Bank) and Hamas (in Gaza) signed a reconciliation agreement on April 27 in Cairo, burying their long hostility.
Egypt opened the Rafah crossing with Gaza on May 25, easing the pressure on Palestinians living under Israeli blockade since Hamas took over the strip in 2007. Israel accuses Palestinians of smuggling arms and explosives through Rafah. Hamas fighters in Gaza launch Qssam and Katyusha rockets into Israel. Hosni Mubarak had kept a firm lid on this border point.
The Palestinian Authority has prepared to move a resolution at the UN General Assembly for statehood next September, though Washington and European capitals are opposed to this demarche.
Amr Moussa, former Secretary-General of the Arab League and a possible presidential candidate, condemned the attack on Egyptian soldiers and said that their blood would not go in vain. Another Presidential hopeful, Ayman Nour of the Ghad party and the "Muslim Brotherhood" came out with strongly worded warnings to Israel and criticising America.
Egyptians in general were deeply frustrated that Hosni Mubarak did everything to put Israeli and US interest in the region over those of Egyptians and Palestinians. Gas is sold to Israel at a price lower than its production cost. Israeli tourists were welcomed to Sharm El-Sheik and Taba without any restriction. The fact that former Israeli Defence Minister Ben Eliezer offered Mubarak political asylum in Israel during the Tahrir Square uprising incensed the demonstrators.
While Egypt continues to smart under the weight of its unfinished revolution, Benjamin Netanyahu's Israel recently has been going through another kind of upheaval in Tel Aviv -- the "tent-city demonstrations."
Israelis feel that they are working harder, earning less, and paying more. Since mid-July, hundreds of young Israelis set up igloo-shaped tents in posh boulevards of Tel Aviv demanding affordable housing and a tolerable cost of living. Soon, the number of demonstrators rose to thousands and pressured Netanyahu to improve social services, threatening his right-wing government.
Thus, for Netanyahu the border incident could not have come at a more convenient time. It actually diverted the attention of Israelis from "social" issues to "security" issues. On the diplomatic front Netanyahu is gleeful that the killing of Israeli soldiers and civilians by Palestinians will effectively put the Palestinian initiative for statehood in jeopardy. Israel can now tell the world once again that the Palestinians are terrorists and do not deserve a state, at least not now.
As Egypt moves towards a democratic system of government it will be difficult for any leader to ignore the popular sentiments of its people. Autocratic rulers (like Mubarak) with outside (US & Europe) help could afford to go alone for some time disregarding people's mood -- but not for long.
With Gaddafi overthrown in Libya and Syria's Bashar Assad in the corner the situation in the Middle East is getting more and more fluid. No wonder President Barack Obama pointed out last May that the longer it takes for Israel to agree to the two-state solution for the Palestinians, the more difficult it will be to defend Israel.
The recent incident may well have been contained, but it certainly has chilled the relations between Cairo and Tel Aviv. The Palestinian issue will dominate and define Egypt-Israeli relations in the coming days. As Egypt moves towards a truly democratic polity the Camp David Accords may become tenuous because of popular demands.
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