Boro harvest may lower rice prices
Newly harvested boro paddy has started coming to markets amid speculation of a dip in the prices following a good output this year.
The behaviour of the rice market, however, will depend on the government's procurement prices and targeted procurement volume, traders said yesterday.
The government may announce its boro purchase price and the procurement volume for the current season by the end of the month or early May, said Ahmed Hossain Khan, director general of Directorate of Food.
Harvesting of the dry season crop began last week, mainly in the haor areas of the north-eastern districts where farmers usually harvest in advance to avoid crop losses due to flash floods occurring with the 'first showers'.
Last year, flash floods destroyed standing crops in the haor areas in Sunamganj and Netrokona. This year, farmers are yet to face any such natural disaster.
“There will be a very good harvest if no such calamity visits us in the next two weeks,” said Bappi Saha, a rice miller of Netrokona district, who buys paddy through agents from the farmers.
He said trading in freshly harvested paddies has just taken off. “It will gain momentum after a week amid intensive harvesting.”
According to traders, the market of the newly arrived boro paddy started slightly upbeat.
Fine paddy varieties, such as BR-28, sell at Tk 600-700 per maund (37.5 kg), depending on the moisture content, said Abdul Jalil, a paddy wholesaler at Ashuganj ghat, the main market of paddy of the local haor area.
The current price is a bit higher than the last year's opening prices, said Jalil, but predicted that prices might drop next week because of the anticipated increased supply.
His forecast about a possible fall in prices comes as millions of farmers, encouraged by high prices, planted paddy to pocket gains from another good harvest.
Officials and traders expect that the output would be good this year if crops are not lost to natural calamities or pest attacks through the remaining days.
“The fields look extremely bright and healthy. We expect a very good output if no hazard befalls in the next two weeks,” said Habibur Rahman, director general of Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), which says the planted acreage exceeded its target of 47.80 lakh hectares this year.
Nirod Boron Saha, president of Naogaon Dhanno Chal Aratdar O Babosayee Samity (an association for paddy and rice stockists and traders), a main foodgrains wholesale centre in the north, also expects a better harvest.
He said prices might drop a month later when harvest in the north will be complete
Jalil, a paddy stockist at Ashuganj Ghat, Brahmanbaria, said the government's purchase price and its procurement target would influence the staple market.
The government had set purchase price for paddy at Tk 17 for each kg and rice at Tk 25 last year with a target of buying 12 lakh tonnes of paddy and rice from the domestic market.
It had bought nearly 6 lakh tonnes initially but raised the purchase prices of rice later to fulfil its procurement target.
Khan of Directorate of Food said a meeting of Food Planning and Monitoring Committee will be held by the end of the current month or early next month in this regard.
“We will take necessary decisions based on the market prices at that time,” he said.
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