Current status of Indo-US nuclear deal
India's trillion-dollar economy is growing at a breakneck speed of 9 % per cent a year. Measured by parity purchasing power, India is already the world's fourth largest economy.
India's crave for energy is also increasing rapidly to meet its growing demands. Nuclear energy is one of the many options India has adopted to meet the growing demand of energy and having a secure energy source is now vital for India.
Recently India has signed with Russia to build four new reactors for development of energy. India is also planning to get gas through pipeline from Iran through Pakistan.
While it pursues its energy policy, India's centerpiece of energy policy has been the US-India nuclear deal. The deal was announced jointly by President Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh last year and later approved this year by the Congress.
It is inconceivable that the Bush administration would do for anyone else the nuclear deal it has clinched with India, a deal in which the entire global nuclear governance is described as unique. It is unique because although India is not a party to the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Bush administration has agreed to provide nuclear fuel and advanced nuclear technology to India.
Political Hiccups in India
In recent times, in India the deal is going through some political hiccups as it has been involved in domestic politics.
The left- wing parties, especially the Communist party, CPI (M), which provide support to the coalition government of Dr. Manmohan Singh opposed the deal as it would take away India's sovereignty in dealing with nuclear development including the right to conduct nuclear tests. They also threatened that they would bolt out of the coalition government if the government proceeds with the follow up actions of the deal.
The right-wing opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) continues to oppose the nuclear deal with the US. The government first considered calling a new general election on the issue to force CPI (M) not to oppose the deal but on October 12 decided not to do so. The coalition government is scheduled to run until 2009 and they do not want to take risk of losing power in an early general election.
Against the background, Prime Minister Singh decided to postpone the implementation of the nuclear deal. However, on 30th October, he diplomatically stated that the deal, though delayed, was not dead. He reportedly said, "We have not reached the end of the road".
The US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, visiting India, took it lightly when asked about the latest snag and on 29th October, said in Mumbai "Obviously India needs to sort this out and come to its conclusions." US officials suggest that it could cost India not only a generous nuclear accord (US provides such deal with only European countries and India is the first developing country to get such a deal for strategic reasons) but also make future dealings more difficult. The Bush administration is severely disappointed that India has suspended its follow-up action to clinch the deal.
While the White House has been careful not to exert pressure publicly, privately they are dissatisfied that India cannot keep a commitment made by the Prime Minister. Further it goes to the question of credibility of India as being an unreliable partner to an agreement.
The follow-up actions of the deal require:
(a) India to have an agreement with IAEA and
(b) To get the approval of 45-member Nuclear Supplies Group that implements the guidelines for control of nuclear and nuclear related exports. Members pursue the aims of NSG through exchange of information on developments of nuclear proliferation concern. All decisions within the NSG are adopted by consensus.
The White House maintains that the deal needs a final vote of the Congress after India goes through the process of follow-up actions, namely, getting approval of the IAEA and of 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). The 45 members of the NSG include China.
If the process of follow-up is delayed by India, the White House believes that it will be difficult to get the nuclear deal past an increasingly polarized US Congress as the American election approaches.
Strove Talbott, a former Deputy Secretary of State in the Clinton administration, reportedly said India's chances of getting a deal through Congress would diminish over time and make it difficult to negotiate a similar deal with a future US administration.
Change of heart of India's Left-Wing Parties
Many experts say that CPI (M) is losing popularity because of its harsh actions against peasants in Nandigram in West Bengal. They now realize that if election is held they would lose heavily. Also the Congress-led government impressed upon them that if India has to reduce its poverty, it needs energy not only in urban areas but also in the countryside. During election campaign, the stance against nuclear energy could be a political liability for them.
At this point, there is a change of heart in recent times of the left-wing parties in India, especially that of CPI (M). They now agree that the Indian government may proceed to get the deal approved by the Vienna-based IAEA on condition that the draft agreement between India and IAEA has to be presented before and approved by CPI (M).
The green signal of the CPI (M) provides the Manmohan Singh government a window of opportunity to go through the first stage of the follow-up action. Once it is done, India has to get the approval of NSG of which China is a member. It is not known what conditions NSG would lay down for India to get the nuclear fuel and technology from the US.
Challenges
Two challenges remain for India to get the nuclear deal through with the US. First is whether Prime Minister Singh can assuage its critics from the political left and right in time for the Bush administration to get it past the Congress. Time seems to be running out for both the Dr. Singh government and the Bush administration. Second, whether the deal clinched between US-India gets its approval from the 45-member of Nuclear Supplies Group including China. China may fear that the reprocessed fuel could be used by India for a new genre of nuclear weapons (plutonium based).
Once these two challenges are resolved, India will be able to buy nuclear technology and fuel from the US. US companies are also pushing the deal because a lot of money is involved in their lucrative nuclear plant business in India.
Both India and the US need each other because of global strategic interests. Therefore both President Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are eager to salvage the deal with honour.
The author is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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