Watching the world go by
Sometime in November 2006: an alternate parallel universe. An East Asian city hosting a mega event for "Young Asian Leaders." Artists, businesspeople, activists, and politicians. All within a vaguely defined category of "young" Asians (an infinitely elastic category!).
The larger purpose was to rebrand the organisers as part of the "Asian century." Everyone wants to get in on the next big thing. And right now, Asia is smoking hot.
As a symbolic exercise, everyone represented perceptions and realities about their countries. Indians are getting asked about technology. Koreans about chaebols. Singaporeans about civil society. Japanese about harajuku style. Afghans about women's rights.
I was there to talk about a business opportunity. But being Bangladeshi, I was inevitably asked about politics. On internet screens, there was fratricide on Dhaka streets. Bloggers seemed shocked by the carnage: the logi-boitha, the dhawa-palta dhawa, the riot police, the rioters, the rent-a-mob. The sticks, the stones, breaking someone's bones. I kept remembering the last line from Bridge on the River Kwai: "Madness, it's madness."
So, tell us about the "situation in your country." I dutifully recited generic analysis and prediction, and then hastily added: "But I'm not a journalist." I was being polite -- I was flat bored with talking about the same thing, year after year. Hartal, hartal, hartal. How much longer?
Taking a break from being interrogated about incomprehensible political chaos, I was in the toilet when I overheard this conversation at the washroom sink:
"So you're from the Philippines?"
"Yes, representing a telecom company."
"Oh, are you anywhere else in Asia?"
"Yes, we're beginning expansion. You're from Singapore, yes? We're going there."
"Which sectors would you recommend investing in? I represent a fund that is looking for Asian economies on the cusp."
"Oh, I can sit down and give you a grid. There are several industries on the upswing."
"Well, let's talk more in the evening, do you have a business card?"
"Yes, of course, just hold on while I dry my hands!"
It's a tortured and flimsy analogue, but I found in this moment a snapshot for our national position: seeking refuge in the toilet, while two young men smoothly moved into deal-making stage in five minutes at the bathroom sink.
Fifteen years ago, after the fall of the Ershad regime, there was bubbling excitement about Bangladesh in the world. Newly democratic Asian nation, etc, etc ("populous Muslim democracy" had not yet entered the media vernacular). The then finance minister was invited to speak at Asia Society's swanky investment "breakfast." A room full of fund analysts, and a lonely Bangal in the cheap seat (someone from the society had invited me as a "representative Bangladeshi").
After the standard presentation, a Connecticut fund manager raised his hand. "Tell me, sir, what will you do to reassure investors about these harrttals?" A moment of puzzled silence in the room. It was only the first month of post-Ershad hartals under democracy, and many analysts did not (yet) know about this creature. The minister smoothly responded: "Oh, that is nothing. A small disturbance, they will soon stop. No relevance to the investment scenario."
And they were small. And they did soon stop. And yes, they had absolutely no impact on investment into Bangladesh
When the giant H&M superstores first opened in America, there was a pseudo nightclub feel as hordes of fashionistas lined up for cheap designer knockoffs. I went on a different mission -- I had heard that Bangladesh was a major supplier. Sure enough -- as hordes of Manhattan's stylish lot ran amok grabbing the shiny shirts, pencil skirts and strappy dresses, I smiled as I turned over labels and spotted, eight out of ten times: "Made In Bangladesh."
Five years ago, things started changing. Suddenly there were labels from Estonia and Sri Lanka. The Bangladesh share kept shrinking, until I could only find that golden label on the cheapest, generic T-shirts. I read Thomas Friedman's op-ed about Victoria's Secret factories in Sri Lanka and worried. How was war-torn Lanka getting this business, and not us? I'm sure some economist will show statistics that garments exports grew in that period. But I kept walking into H&M, seeing new countries on the rack, and feeling a gnawing unease. Is everyone speeding up, catching up and overtaking, while we stand still?
Columbia University Professor Sree Srinivasan recently compiled 80 major US magazine covers that featured South Asia. These are the big majors, and there are many omissions. But even accounting for gaps, Bangladesh shows up four times -- all for 1971. Pakistan shows up for wars with India. Tibet shows up for the Dalai Lama. Afghanistan shows up for the Taliban. India used to show up for Amritsar, Indira's death, riots, and License Raj. But ten years ago, it all changed dramatically. Tiger Burning Bright, India Inc., Will India Fly, The New Consumers, India Heats Up, Bollywood Rising, Pepsi chairman, McKinsey guru, software whiz kids, Hollywood wunderkind, silly supermodels, the list was endless. Yes, yes, US media is biased, and India has a heavy PR machine. But what's stopping us from doing the same? I look at India Rising, and it just reminds me of how far behind WE are.
Yes, the dark side of "Shining" India is abject poverty and farmer suicides. Yes, capitalism creates incredible chasms between rich and poor. Yes, in developing nations, it often creates a looter class. Yes, a "free" market that shreds safety nets, lays off workers, and privatises essential resources is a scary specter. But there must be, there has to be, another model. The only way to find our way to a path that brings equitable, just and sustainable development is to participate in the global system. On our terms, and with precautions and protection, but we must participate.
Amazingly, in spite of everything, there are signs of progress. Intel's CEO is visiting Bangladesh the next month -- the same Intel whose modest venture into Vietnam in 1997 has grown to a $1 billion investment and transformed the "sleeping dragon." I hope the latest violence won't make him cancel his trip (please let's not miss this chance as well, as we did with the submarine cable).
Goldman Sachs' 2006 report named Bangladesh as one of the N-11 ("next 11") -- countries likely to be as significant as the BRICs (Brazil, India, China -- estimated to have higher GDP than G6 by 2046). On that list was also Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, and Vietnam. But that report reminds us of wasted potential. In the 1960s, Korean delegations used to visit Adamjee Jute Mill to see "modern industrial setup." Jessore Airport was supposedly built even before Singapore's main commercial strip. What exactly went wrong?
Bengalis are proud people, it's one of our assets. But the dark side of pride is the hubristic notion that we can stumble on for decades in this manner, and then when we finally get our house in order, the world will rush in to do business with us. No, the world won't actually wait. Too many countries already have a head-start, and it will take superhuman, collective effort for us to get a place at the table. To get a share, any share, of global trade, business and investment.
Time to wake up, start running, and catch up.
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