Challenges to food self-sufficiency
WHILE addressing the nation over radio and television on January 6 on the occasion of her government completing one year in office, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina expressed her government's determination to make Bangladesh self-sufficient in food by 2012. This courageous statement of the prime minister has been welcomed by the people.
There are no two opinions about the need for attaining self-sufficiency in food. But, let us bear in mind that while food self-sufficiency is not unattainable, it is at the same time very challenging. This article, therefore, makes an attempt to discuss some of the challenges that stand in the way.
Population growth outpaces food growth: Statistics of the last ten years show that annual population growth rate is outpacing annual food grain growth rate in the country. This happens not only in the case of rice, but also for vegetables, pulses, meat and fish, milk, egg, edible oils and fruits. According to various studies, the population will double to 280 million at the current rate of growth by 2080 and reach about 180 million as early as 2020.
How much food will be needed for "active and healthy life" of the 180 million people in 2020? According to the Household Income & Expenditure Survey (HIES)-2005 (published in May, 2007), average per capita per day intake of food at national level stood at 947.7 grams, out of which cereals (rice and wheat), vegetables, pulses, milk and milk products, edible oils, meat and egg, and fish constituted 469.2, 157, 14.2, 32.4, 16.5, 20.8, 42.1 grams respectively.
According to experts, per capita per day intake of some of the above items is not enough for maintaining active and healthy life of our people. For instance, the average national intake of vegetables is 157 grams against the recommended requirement of 200 grams per person per day.
Due to shortfall in domestic production and dependence on import, the prices of lentil recently reached all time high, making it almost impossible for the common people to consume this poor man's protein. Due to mismatch in annual population growth rate and food growth rate, the gap between food requirement and availability of domestically produced food is widening.
Inconsistency in the growth rate of food grains: There is inconsistency in the growth rate of food grains, particularly rice, which is the staple food of Bangladesh and provides about 93 percent of the country's cereal intake and above 70 percent of calories in the Bangladesh diet, due to vagaries of nature and inadequate infrastructural facilities. Food grain (rice and wheat) production in 1971-72 was 100.46 lakh tonnes, which reached 160.80 lakh tonnes in 1985-86, 190.80 lakh tonnes in 1996-96. For the first time since independence, the country attained near self-sufficiency in food grain production in 2000-2001. The food grain production in 2000-2001 stood at 267.58 lakh tonnes. But the increasing trend in food grain production could not be sustained.
Food grain production in 2001-02, 2002-03, 2003-04,2004-05 and 2005-06 stood at 259.05 lakh tonnes, 266.94 lakh tonnes, 274.42 lakh tonnes, 261.33 lakh tonnes, and 275.90 lakh tonnes respectively. In 2007-08, the aman production suffered heavily due to two heavy floods and the cyclone Sidr. Due to a bumper harvest of boro in 2008-09, the food grain production in that year stood at 325 lakh tonnes.
It is yet to be ascertained whether food grain production target for 2009-2010 will be achieved. But indications are there that aman production target may not be achieved due to drought-like situation at the time of transplantation of aman in the country's northern region, known as the granary of Bangladesh. This may affect the total growth rate of food grains in 2009-2010.
Loss of agricultural land: Loss of agricultural land due to habitation for growing population, river bank erosion, industrialisation and other development activities continues to be a serious problem. The country is losing approximately 80 thousand hectares of agricultural land annually. What is more alarming is the scientific forecast of loss of land from sea-level rise due to global warming.
According to IPCC's forecast, just a one-metre rise in sea-level due to global warming might cause around 17 percent of Bangladesh's landmass to go under water, displacing some 20 million people in coastal areas.
Dropping ground water level to affect boro cultivation: Boro, an irrigated crop, is now the principal food crop of the country. Both surface and ground water are the sources of irrigation. A number of studies show that ground water-based irrigation system is experiencing difficulties in different parts of the country, as shallow aquifer level is getting out of reach due to fast depletion of water table.
Experts have attributed the falling of groundwater to decline in river flows and inadequate rain caused by climate change and heavy withdrawal for irrigation.
Loss of food grain due to improper harvests, processing and storage: At a workshop organised by the CIRDAP at its head office in the city on November 23, the speakers, including a senior official of the food and disaster management ministry, revealed that improper harvests, processing and storage led to a loss of nearly 15 percent of food grains produced in the country.
It was further revealed that, for fruits and vegetables, post-harvest losses ranged between 20 and 25 percent while losses for highly perishable fruits and vegetables might be as high as 40 percent.
The prime minister definitely kept these challenges in view while expressing her government's determination to attain self-sufficiency in food by 2012. Experts are of the opinion that Bangladesh has a huge potential to increase crop productivity, fisheries and livestock despite climate change effects if the right policies are followed. Bridging the yield gap, scaling up farmers' management practices and bringing fallow land under cultivation may help. Surface water will have to be made available for irrigation and reducing dependence on irrigation based on ground water. The people should be motivated to accept the proposed "one couple, one child" norm on voluntary basis and financial incentives be given, if necessary. Annual food growth rate must be higher than annual population growth rate.
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