Sheikh Hasina's New Delhi visit
PRIME minister Sheikh Hasina is embarking on a much-talked about and much-awaited visit to India from January. Undeniably, the visit has generated enormous interest and curiosity in all circles in both the countries. The significance and importance of Sheikh Hasina's talks with her Indian counterpart Dr. Manmohan Singh need to be seen against the backdrop of the past and current political conditions in both Bangladesh and India; regional and larger international situations are also relevant in many ways influencing the summit-level parleys.
Indo-Bangladesh ties have a particular character dating from 1971, but they also vary depending on which governments are in the seat of power in New Delhi and in Dhaka. The Awami League had taken over in Bangladesh at the beginning of 2009 after a massive mandate. Only after a few months, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government returned to power this time with a bigger majority and influence.
It is no exaggeration to say that an Awami league government in Dhaka feels comfortable with a Congress authority in India and vice-versa. This is mainly because of the relations and rapport developed during the Liberation War when the Congress led by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was in power in India. As such, the governments of Dr. Manmohan Singh and Sheikh Hasina, with Indira's daughter-in-law Sonia and her son Rahul being at the helm provides the best chance of bilateral ties both at government and party levels. Against this background, Indo-Bangladesh ties assume special significance with outstanding bilateral matters receiving importance for the sake of better ambience that both the government are likely to relish, notwithstanding their limitations on many issues. But there is hardly any denying that political will in such matters plays vital role, and it remains to be seen how the Bangladesh prime minister's trip to India goes off in bettering the ties.
Rather coincidentally, the overall political climate in South Asia at the moment is different from the past as all the governments here are democratic and believe in secular politics. This somewhat unique situation also provides an encouragement to authorities in Dhaka and New Delhi to remove misunderstandings. Even Bhutan is moving towards democracy as the King himself is voluntarily slackening his grip and showing increasing willingness in involving people in the governance of the country.
Without going into detail of the host of issues including those contentious in nature one can safely say that the summit discussions in New Delhi will definitely cover all the major subjects that are often raised in the bilateral arena. From Bangladesh side, sharing of the waters of the common rivers, removal of the trade imbalance that is hugely against Dhaka, security along the common borders, transit to Nepal through India, the "Tipaimukh" issue, demarcation of the land and maritime boundaries, and import of power are some of the issues that are expected to be taken up with all seriousness during the talks.
On the water issue, it was during the last tenure of the Awami league government in 1996 that a water treaty was concluded with the United Front government in India under the premiership of H.D. Deve Gowda when the sharing of the Ganges waters was addressed. Dhaka wants specific accord on sharing the waters of river Teesta - a bone of contention - and also protection of Bangladesh's interest on the "Tipaimukh" issue.
The two sides have held talks in Dhaka on the Teesta issue ahead of the summit at the secretary level and both sides appeared upbeat about the progress in the complex issue. Now we know that there will be no deal on the Teesta during the PM's trip but the matter will be on the agenda and one would hope that something will come about soon at ministerial level JRC meeting. Some other issues may also witness progress and of course several agreements, a variety of security related matter, are expected to be signed.
From India's point of view, transit in various forms and curbing of anti-Indian activities from Bangladeshi soil would certainly figure prominently. There are some other matters as well, but New Delhi is already satisfied that Hasina's government is not willing to allow ULFA or other such outfits that have found Bangladesh as a sanctuary for their "independence" or secessionist activities.
But what is important here is that Hasina has to take into account the electorate and not just the ruling Awami League supporters while giving concessions to India lest her government is branded "Pro-Indian". Former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia is prepared to fire the salvo against the government should it find the ground rife on the outcome of the visit. Her party has already cautioned that any "sell-out" to India will not be acceptable. And not all the partners of the ruling coalition may see eye to eye on matters relating to India.
New Delhi will not relish a situation that creates undue pressure on a government in Bangladesh which is seen as friendly towards it. It has to be remembered that Dhaka finds it somewhat difficult to convince people that transit facilities will bring enormous economic benefits to Bangladesh since some quarters are against the idea even though many see the issue as an economic gain for the country. No country these days can afford to remain isolated. Doors cannot remain closed for the sake of connectivity even though it is also imperative that national interest is protected.
Apart from the major issues, some areas can be improved for the sake of the interest of the common people of both countries. For instance, the introduction of the "Maitree train" between Dhaka and Kolkata has been a leap forward in the bilateral ties. However, the hassles and the time being taken for immigration on both sides can be simplified more.
In Dhaka, everyday a large number of citizens seek Indian visa, and most of them are common people. The recently introduced system through internet is definitely good and probably also needed for security and technical reasons. But in a way this has increased trouble as only a small number of common people have internet access. The new procedure also requires several days causing problems for those who need urgent visa for medical and other purposes; this needs to be seen as a priority.
Not unexpectedly, discussions continue to revolve around the coming Hasina-Manmohan talks and this has become a kind of cynosure of all eyes, particularly in Bangladesh. It is being discussed whether the outcome will be a "win-win" situation for the two nations as both have major stakes. India, being a big country and an emerging economic power, should demonstrate what she can do for a smaller friendly neighbour. After all, proximity and historic friendship are expected to be judged by approach and deeds.
The author is a senior journalist and international affairs analyst .
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