The Green Movement of Iran

Under siege.Photo: AFP

THE controversial presidential election of Iran in June 2009 provoked what is now known as the "Green Movement." The disputed election produced a second term for Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. As the controversy raged, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei decreed that the election result was valid. Ahmedinejad was thus sworn-in in August. However, the election split the Iranian polity deeply.
The three defeated candidates -- Mir Hossein Mousavi a former prime minster, former speaker and an influential cleric Mehdi Karroubi, and former president Mohammad Khatami, nicknamed as the "troika" -- have emerged as staunch detractors of President Admedinejad. Immediately after the election Mousavi said that the election was rigged and rejected the results, demanding a fresh election. Millions of people staged violent street protests, which continued for several days. The protestors used green coloured banners and flags, demanding Ahmedinejad's resignation and introduction of reforms. Mousavi used the green colour for his campaign. Thus the "Green Movement" was born.
Ever since the election, street protests have continued intermittently in Tehran. The Movement has been demanding massive reforms and removal of Ahmedinejad. The president has so far succeeded in quelling the protests in Tehran, but it has now spread to other major cities of Iran. So far, according to unofficial estimates, nearly 100 protestors have died in clashes with the pro-government militias known as the Baseej. Thousands have been arrested. For the protestors in Tehran facing police brutality and intimidation has become the norm. Anti-government newspapers have been banned and websites blocked.
The "troika" has not been directly involved in instigating the street protests. Instead they have used the officially sanctioned religious and political calendar -- when public demonstrations are allowed -- to turn them into opposition showdowns.
On Al Quds Day (September 18), young demonstrators clashed with government forces. During the protest march government supporters tried to attack former president Mohammad Khatami. On the 30th anniversary (November 4) of the seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran, thousands of protestors poured on to the streets of Tehran wearing green wristbands, ribbons and scarves and fought battles with troops.
On December 7, National Students Day, university students and non-students carrying green flags descended on to the streets of Tehran and chanted anti-Ahmedinejad and anti-Ayatollah Ali Khamenei slogans. They also defiled and burned portraits of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The latest violence took place on December 27, 2009, on Ashura, when eight protestors -- including Seyed Ali Mousavi, nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi -- were killed in clashes with the feared Baseej. Hundreds of demonstrators were arrested.
In a desperate bid, Ahmedinejad supporters also organised a big rally in Tehran on December 30, chanting "death to opponents." But the show of strength did not succeed in scaring the Green activists.
Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the clerics have ruled Iran with a firm hand. It is interesting to note that there is now an ever-widening rift among the top clerics of Iran. The aristocratic group of clerics seems to have split into two distinct groups --"conservatives" and "liberals." The "troika," however, proclaim their allegiance to the "guardianship of the Jurist" and consider themselves as "loyal opposition."
The supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds massive administrative powers and religious sway over Shia Iran, has so far supported conservative Ahmedinejad. Khamenei appoints the commanders of the armed forces and the Revolutionary Guards, who are still loyal to him. As president, Ahmedinejad derives his legitimacy from the powerful Guardian Council and administrative authority from the omnipresent Revolutionary Guards.
The reasons for the discontent and anger among Iranians can be found surrounding two issues -- lack of human rights and freedom, and alleged deviation from Islamic values and principles. While the people in general crave for basic freedom a group of senior clergy have accused Ahmedinejad's regime of grossly violating the principles of the Republic on which the Islamic Revolution stands.
Grand Ayatollah Hoseyn Ali Montazeri, one of the most respected liberal clergy of Iran, has condemned Ahmedinejad's regime and warned that unless his government was "in step with the people" and told them about their rights, the religious authorities would "become weaker and shakier." Ayatollah Montazeri (87) died on December 19, which is seen as a great loss to the Green Movement. At his funeral there were violent clashes between the green activists and the security forces.
Internally, the Green Movement has put Ahmedinejad's regime under serious strain. On the external front, Ahmedinejad is staring in the face of tough US-led economic sanctions over Iran's nuclear program. For the West the current instability in Iran is a welcome development as the Movement is weakening the government. The West, however, is in a dilemma about whether to fully support the Green Movement or to deal with the recalcitrant Ahmedinejad. Supporting the Greens may backfire, as they too want to develop nuclear fuel.
On the nuclear issue, the opposition supports the government's policy. They are, however, wary of the sanctions. The Movement has been in contact with the Obama administration through private and public channels. It favours calibrated sanctions against members of the regime and not economic sanctions that affect the people. Ahmedinejad has been accusing the US and UK of interference and encouraging the Greens.
The Green Movement seems to have gathered steam after the confrontation on Ashura. The demand for reforms has surpassed the demand for Ahmedinejad's ouster, and has gathered strength. Arresting the "troika" will push the Movement in only one direction -- ouster of Ahmedinejad.
On 1 January, Mousavi gave five proposals for ending the current unrest. These include accountability of the administration, transparent election laws, release of all political prisoners, freedom of press and recognition of people's rights. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his protégé Ahmedinejad will have to accommodate the demands of the protestors if the current regime has to survive. If the Movement continues and hardens Khamenei may have to abandon Ahmedinejad for the sake of the Islamic Revolution.
The exasperated Iranians want freedom. Over the past three decades the Ayatollahs, instead of relaxing their grip, have systematically gnawed at the freedom of people. People in all ages have fought for freedom and liberty. Iranians are no different. It is probably time for Iranians to break the shackles and usher in reforms for freedom.

Mahmood Hasan is a former Ambassador and Secretary, and Policy Adviser, Center for Foreign Affairs Studies.