Terrorism, non-state actors and South Asia
IT is as if by coincidence that perhaps the most topical issue at this time -- terrorism -- was the common focal theme of several seminars both in Bangladesh and India very recently. That countering terrorism, and a corollary issue of small arms, was the subject of seminars and colloquium involving government agencies and think tanks at the regional level, is ample evidence of the enormous importance of the subject to Bangladesh as well as South Asia. The emphasis was one and the same -- the imperative of cooperation to combat terrorism at the regional level.
And it just so happened that the prospect of a common regional approach to combat terrorism was one of the sub-themes of a seminar on "South Asia 2020: Moving towards Cooperation or Conflict" organised by the IDSA in New Delhi last week.
While one is not yet fully informed of the details of the deliberations of the regional workshop held in Dhaka on "Effectively Countering Terrorism" held in collaboration with the UN Counterterrorism Committee and some of our development partners, the very quintessential aspect of the matter was touched upon by the home minister and other speakers at the opening session which was, devising means to put up a joint effort to combat the menace of terrorism in South Asia.
No region in recent times has been as badly affected by terrorism as South Asia. Each one of the countries of the region has had to deal or is still grappling with it in some form or the other.
The very recent attacks in Pakistan, including on the AHQ, one of the most highly secured establishments, and the terrorist attacks in Bombay barely a year ago, and the experience of Bangladesh in Aug 2004 and 2005, should leave no one in doubt that terrorism has established its footprints globally; certainly it has acquired a regional dimension.
The so-called US war on terror has brought the lone superpower at the doorsteps of the region. It means that the countries of the region will not only have to deal with indigenous terror at home, they will have to also deal with the inevitable fallout of the war, like it has had to the fallout of the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan, on South Asia.
The approach of the South Asian countries on the issue has been well reflected in the many instruments and protocols formulated under the aegis of Saarc dealing with terrorism which predate 9/11. The most recent initiative in this regard was taken at the 31st Session of the Saarc Council of Ministers in February 2009. Regrettably, the Saarc countries have not been able to utilise the provisions of the relevant protocols in spite of the compelling reasons that command to the contrary. And this begs the question.
Pakistan is in such a dire state that observers are wondering whether it is at the throes of breakup, and no one can exult at such a prospect. Some Pakistani scholars opine that a disintegration of the country would not mean its breakup but emergence of a Somalia like situation where the regions of what is now Pakistan would be controlled by warlords and their bands.
And notice what the terrorists are saying. Once they are done with Pakistan it will be time for them to train their energy and their guns on others in the region. That being so can we afford the luxury of inaction?
There is growing networking of terrorists. Recent arrests of Indian militants in Bangladesh have revealed their transnational links. Alleged links have also been revealed by Ulfa terrorists recently captured in Dhaka admitting their links to some religious extremist groups in Bangladesh. An equally significant link, established almost a decade ago, is that of the Maoists in India led by the Maoist Communist Centre and involving leftists groups in India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
And experts opine that given the combination of political fragility, development challenges, and violent religious extremism, the threat of terrorism in South Asia is not likely to subside in the immediate future, making the implementation of a long-term, balanced strategy of paramount importance.
To the threat of terrorists has been added the potential damaging capability, to our developments efforts, of armed non-state actors (NSA) in the region. We shall deal with the issue of NSA in greater details subsequently, but for now it is enough to say that there is an urgent need to build up a dynamic regional framework to deal with the anti-state activities of the NSA which, "include but are not confined to acts of terror within and across the national frontiers of South Asian countries."
The US has discovered, much to its embarrassment, that no war, much less a complex issue as terrorism can be conducted alone and in isolation; although the declaration of war can be made unilaterally it needs the joint effort of the stakeholders to pursue it, and even then there is no guarantee of success. The South Asian countries would do well to recognise this reality.
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