Bangladesh to be a 'growth outperformer' in 2016-25

Bangladesh has been picked up as a growth outperformer for the next decade riding on low commodity prices, demographic dividend and expected measures aimed at improving the business environment.

London-based BMI Research has picked six countries -- Bangladesh, Ethiopia, India, Mexico, Pakistan and the Philippines -- that will be growth performers in 2016-2025.

The countries “will rapidly climb the GDP country rankings between now and 2025,” it said. 

The six countries are expected to gain an average of 6.5 places each in global GDP rankings by 2025, with Ethiopia (+12) and Bangladesh (+11) making the most gains, said BMI Research, which is owned by the Fitch Group.

Bangladesh is the 47th largest economy in the world in terms of gross domestic product, according to the World Bank's 2015 ranking.

The BMI analysis said three factors will be the key to growth.

“Economic growth will be strongest in net commodity importers that have positive demographic trends and economic reform momentum.”

With regards to commodities, net commodity importers will benefit from generally lower commodity prices over 2016-2025 compared to 2006-2011, particularly for oil.

Bangladesh relies heavily on imports for oil.

BMI Research said commodity exporters will underperform in the absence of other growth drivers, while reformers will outperform, helping set apart otherwise similarly structured emerging markets.

Developed markets will stagnate and generally lose ground to emerging markets in the GDP rankings, it said.

Economic growth in the developed markets will generally be capped by weak demographic trends and a lack of substantial economic reform. In terms of demographics, rapidly ageing populations, particularly in Western Europe and Japan, will result in weak labour force growth.

Turning to demographics, the research said countries with positive demographic trends will enjoy an endogenous boost to economic activity. Of Bangladesh's 16 crore population, 10.5 crore, which is more than 65 percent of the population, are aged between 15 and 64 years, said the United Nations Development Programme in April.

With more youth entering the working age population, Bangladesh is poised to benefit from a demographic dividend in the next 10 years, according to the World Bank. About reforms, BMI Research said countries that it expects to enact economic and political reforms, specifically measures to improve business environment and unlock economic productivity, will grow faster than those without such reform momentum.