Since the Awami League's fourth consecutive victory in what appeared to be an essentially one-sided election, much of the discussion has centred on the future trajectory of politics and the potential impact on business and the economy. A crucial institution—the Election Commission (EC)—should not skip a closer scrutiny of its role in staging the election, which allowed the ruling party to manipulate the system adeptly and walk away unchallenged. During an event on January 18, Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Kazi Habibul Awal, without taking any responsibility, finally acknowledged that people's confidence in the electoral system has declined.

The CEC's realisations that the election was not sufficiently participatory and that "the crisis still remains as the polls (have) not been acceptable to some parties" make us wonder how he could still claim that "the nation could overcome a crisis through this election"? His remarks at the thanks-giving event at the commission indicate that they are struggling to reconcile with the facts that the election they conducted fell far short of the threshold of a democratic exercise. Putting together his admission of "not participatory enough" with his previous assertion that if one percent vote was cast, the polls would get legality but not legitimacy, one can easily deduce that this election's legitimacy is in question.

The EC's attempts to portray the election as participatory and fair seem to have been more focused on appearance than on genuine efforts to achieve these goals. For instance, sending an invitation letter to the deserted and locked BNP office—instead of ensuring an enabling environment—appeared to be a mere public relations stunt. The cancellation of one sitting MP's candidature for violating electoral code served as a diversion from the EC's inaction in numerous other violations.

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‘A setback for US-Bangladesh relations’

The Transparency International Bangladesh's (TIB) 12th National Parliament Election Process Tracking report, published last week, sheds light on the EC's failures. One of the most crucial observations by TIB is, "The Election Commission, sometimes by compulsion in the name of Constitutional and legal compulsion and on occasions by design, played the role of a key catalyst for the realization of the agenda of the one-sided election. Other state institutions, especially law enforcement agencies and administration were also used to play, or played the same role in similar ways." The report outlines the EC's failures throughout the pre-election phase, the campaign phase, and the actual election period. The pre-election phase included voter registration, redrawing of constituencies, registration of new political parties, making changes in the Representation of the People Order (RPO), holding dialogue as part of its confidence-building exercise, registrations of local and foreign observers, role of political parties, schedule announcement, and submission of nominations and scrutinisation of their validity. Unfortunately, each of those acts stoked new controversies and raised questions about the EC's mandated neutrality and independence. Its handling of observers—international observers, in particular—is a pretty shocking example of its complicity with the government. It has allowed fake foreign observers despite our earlier warnings about it and reminders of instances during the 2018 election.

Though ministers have lambasted TIB by comparing it as a front of the opposition BNP, its research on 50 constituencies, spread throughout eight divisions and 41 districts, is quite extensive and covers all kinds of irregularities and violations of electoral rules and code of conduct. The findings, which align with reports from national and international media, challenge the credibility of the election.

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The guilt that comes with voting at a farcical election

It's not only the mainstream media. Social media platforms, too, are awash with videos exposing irregularities, including ballot stuffing, children casting votes, creation of fake queues in the presence of foreign media and observers, and polling agents being forced out. This evidence further underscores the need for a thorough examination of the EC's role. Had the EC installed CCTV cameras at the polling stations instead of spending so much energy on its electronic voting machine (EVM) project, which was eventually abandoned due to a lack of funding, it could have managed the polls a little better. As statements made by losing nominees of the ruling Awami League and its allies, including some top politicians, also supplemented TIBs findings, one might wonder whether Obaidul Quader would call them BNP spokespersons as well.

In the absence of real competition and given the opposition's boycott, both the ruling party and the EC focused their attention on ensuring at least 50 percent voter turnout. The sudden and mysterious rise of turnout figures in the last hour of election day, which otherwise seems improbable, raised strong suspicion that it was yet another act by the EC to assist the ruling party to make the election appear reasonably participatory.

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A review of the 2024 electoral drama

With election expert groups from the European Union and the IRI-NDI of the United States seeking access to detailed data on voter turnout, questions surrounding the credibility of the election persist. Despite its promise to give a turnout figure every two hours on the polling day through its Smart Election Management app, which had cost a staggering Tk 21 crore, the EC failed miserably. Later, CEC Awal was quoted by some media saying that he heard the app had been hacked. It sounds like a very convenient coincidence that further complicates the mystery of a sudden spike in voting figures.

The Election Commission is reportedly taking an initiative to have an upazila election in March. When the chief of this constitutional body admits that people's confidence in the country's electoral process has decreased, moving ahead with another nationwide election without addressing the deep-rooted issues with the last would invite more questions. Without a national dialogue to establish an acceptable election management mechanism, these elections may only strengthen the ruling party's grip over the local government structure.

Kamal Ahmed is an independent journalist. His X handle is @ahmedka1

Views expressed in this article are the author's own.

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BNP today announced nationwide black flag processions on January 26 and 27 to press home its demands.

"The party will organise the black flag processions in all district towns on January 26 and in metropolitan cities on January 27," said BNP Senior Joint Secretary General Ruhul Kabir Rizvi at a press conference held at the party's Nayapaltan office in the capital.

Rizvi said the black flag procession will be held to demand release of all leaders including party Chairperson Khaleda Zia, withdrawal of all fabricated cases, dissolution of parliament, and to protest higher commodity prices.

Rizvi alleged that the current Awami League government has failed to control the spike in prices of essential commodities.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina today said BNP and its allies want restoration of the caretaker government system not for the election, but to push the country back to darkness again.

"No one will be able to push the country back to the era of darkness," she declared.

Hasina, president of the ruling Awami League, was addressing a discussion marking the 104th birth anniversary of Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman at its Dhaka district unit office in Tejgaon.

She said Bangladesh is the country of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib who was born to change the fate of the common people.

"And we will bring about that change following his ideals," she said.

The prime minister questioned the logic behind BNP's demand that the repealed caretaker government system is restored to oversee national elections.

"Why do they want that? What's their expectation? In 2008 election there was a caretaker government. In that election they got only 30 seats while Awami League bagged 233 seats," she recalled.

The prime minister said BNP should remember that.

She said while Awami League remains in power the poor get food and shelter.

In the country of Bangabanrhu, no one will remain without a home, address, and land, she said.

The government is implementing programmes to reach this goal, said the PM.

"And that is the thing they [BNP] cannot tolerate. They do not like that the common and poor people live a good life," she said.

The BNP will not participate in the upcoming upazila polls as per its previous decision, but it has two different thoughts on the elections.

The party's first thought is to boycott the polls to make sure the turnout of voters remains low like it happened in the January 7 national polls. The BNP also mulls over not being harsh on the party leaders who would participate in the local government polls, said party sources.

They said the party high-ups will observe the situation for a few days. If the grassroots leaders want to run in the polls as independents, they will not be stopped or expelled.

The ruling Awami League on Monday decided that it would not allow its leaders to use its electoral symbol "boat" in the upazila elections.

After the announcement, The Daily Star talked with some central and upazila-level BNP leaders to know their views on the upazila election.

The BNP has been staying away from all polls since 2019 and it expelled the leaders who contested elections going against the party's decision.

Many party leaders are in favour of contesting the upazila polls. They believe as senior party leaders, including Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, may walk out of jail on bail before the announcement of the polls schedule, the issue may be discussed seriously then.

"What will be our achievement through boycotting the polls if we cannot ensure a poor turnout?"

— An upazila-level BNP leader

The upazila polls issue was discussed recently in the party's standing committee meeting, but no decision was made, said party insiders, adding that the opinion of the grassroots leaders will also be taken into consideration.

"We are yet to discuss the issue in the party forum [after the Awami League's decision], but one thing is certain: people have no confidence in any election held under a partisan government," Goyeshwar Chandra Roy, a standing committee member of the BNP, told The Daily Star yesterday.

Another standing committee member said people boycotted the parliamentary polls in response to the BNP's call and that's why the party cannot run in the upazila election.

"If the BNP contests the polls, it may send a wrong message to the people as well. Many of the party men are still behind bars. If the party announces that it will run, fresh arrests may be made," said BNP leader Anwarul Huq, also a former chairman of Noakhali's Sonaimuri upazila.

Another senior BNP leader said the AL may adopt the strategy of fielding "dummy candidates" like it did in the national polls to ensure a festive polls atmosphere.

"If the party grassroots don't show any interest in contesting the upazila elections, then the party may call upon the people to boycott the polls," he told this correspondent wishing anonymity.

Party leaders said the upazila chairmen and vice chairmen candidates usually maintain close communication with the local people and that's why turnouts in the local government elections always remain high.

Besides, people also consider many local issues in the local government polls for which the BNP will find it difficult to keep the turnout low, they observed.

"What will be our achievement through boycotting the polls if we cannot ensure a poor turnout?" said an upazila-level BNP leader.

He argued if the BNP joins the elections, the party candidates would come under attacks, which in turn could expose the government's intention and justify the BNP's decision of boycotting the parliamentary elections.

BNP Senior Joint Secretary General Ruhul Kabir Rizvi yesterday at a press briefing at the party's Nayapaltan central office said no election under Sheikh Hasina will be fair, credible, and peaceful.

"So, the BNP had decided not to participate in any elections under Sheikh Hasina. The party still stands by that decision," he added.

BNP standing committee members think the party should not yet get involved in the ongoing campaign for boycotting Indian products.

They said although there is pressure from within for supporting the campaign, the party is yet to finalise its stance regarding the matter.

The top leaders believe that some people, including online activists, called for the campaign in late January out of their grievances against India over the January 7 national polls.

"BNP has nothing to do with the campaign. But if the party joins the campaign, it will be given a political colour, which may in the end backfire," said a BNP standing committee member who attended a virtual meeting of the committee on Monday night.

He said there is no doubt that the anti-Indian sentiment is running high among the party's rank and file, especially after the national election. The issue was discussed in detail at the meeting.

Another standing committee member suggested assessing the overall situation regarding the campaign and drawing up a strategy on dealing with the issue.

"The issue will be discussed at upcoming meetings, and then the party will make its position clear," he said.

Yesterday, The Daily Star approached at least three BNP standing committee members for comments, but none of them wanted to be named considering the sensitivity of the issue.

The issue came up for discussion at the BNP standing committee meeting as the party's Senior Joint Secretary General Ruhul Kabir Rizvi at a press conference on March 20 expressed solidarity with the movement. He threw his Indian shawl on the road in front of the party's Nayapaltan central office.

Later, some other BNP leaders also talked about the campaign for boycotting Indian products.

At Monday's meeting, none of the BNP standing committee members contradicted the statement by Rizvi. But a member told the meeting that the way Rizvi threw his shawl was not decent.

At this stage, another standing committee member said Rizvi later informed the media that he personally threw his shawl, not as a BNP leader.

Another committee member told the meeting that BNP must criticise Indian's measures (regarding Bangladesh) but that criticism should be well thought out.

Another BNP leader said that the party has nothing to do if people start boycotting Indian products and that the party will not be able to ignore the public demand at some point.

"But supporting the campaign of boycotting Indian products will not be wise for the party," he told the standing committee meeting.

The BNP is yet to decide on participating in the upcoming upazila elections. All the standing committee members observed that the party should stay away from the polls.

Some BNP leaders, however, said the party should not bar any individual from running.