Between Scylla and Charybdis

Much like Odysseus faced with the mythological sea monsters Scylla and Charybdis, Greeks voting on an international bailout Sunday were forced to choose between two potentially hazardous scenarios.

Homer's hero had to choose between losing a few sailors from his ship to a six-headed sea monster, or having his whole ship sucked into a whirlpool and destroyed.

For Greek voters the dangers are less certain, ranging from a possible fall of government to an exit from the euro.

Here are some ways the referendum results could play out:

THE 'YES' SCENARIO

For the radical left Syriza government, which called on Greeks to vote 'No', a 'Yes' victory would be a rejection of their mandate.

But would it cause the government to fall?

Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has said he would resign if the 'Yes' vote wins. However Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has not said clearly what he would do.

If the government falls, two possibilities exist. The first is to form a national unity government based on the current parliament. This would be difficult given the extreme differences between the conservative opposition and Syriza.

Failing that, an early election would have to be called.

By law it cannot be held sooner than 30 days and the outcome is anything but certain. "Tsipras could win again," said Henrik Enderlein, head of the Jacques Delors Institute in Berlin.

For Greece, which has imposed capital controls because banks are short of liquidity, any extended period of uncertainty would be extremely difficult to manage. Athens, which did not repay 1.5 billion euros ($1.7 billion) to the IMF last week, has a number of other payments to make before another 3.5 billion euros come due to the ECB on July 20.

"Even if the 'Yes' vote wins, Greece won't be in the clear," said Agnes Benassy-Quere of the Paris School of Economics.

The ECB has until now been propping up Greek banks with Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) loans. If Greece defaults on its payments, the ECB would find it difficult to continue providing them help, especially if no new bailout deal has been signed.

"It is an urgent situation, but politics works at a different pace than the economy," said Olivier Passet, an economist at the Xerfi consultancy.

He said getting final approval through the European parliaments that need to give their okay to any deal could take several weeks. The German Bundestag, which is now on summer recess, would need to be called back to give the government a negotiating mandate.

Passet said that "technical solutions need to be found in the interval" so the government can repay its debts and the economy kept afloat. He sees capital controls being lifted only in stages.

THE 'NO' SCENARIO

Many analysts believe that a 'No' victory would send Greece into uncharted waters. With the Greek economy at risk of an upheaval, much depends on the reactions of the country's creditors.

"In case of a 'No', the situation will be more complicated," said Passet. "Tsipras will be strengthened, and the political crisis in Greece aggravated."