How are the Omens for South Asia in the New Era?

As all look forward to a better political, economic and social climate across the world in the new century, we in South Asian region too are longing for a better future for understandable reasons. Here, "century" and "new year" are more pronounced than "millennium" since a controversy does yet exist whether the new millennium begins this year or next year. Despite the euphoria all over about the "New millennium", fact remains that many authoritative quarters have claimed that the new millennium does not exactly begin this year, but next year. Without going into the controversy, one can conclude that millennium is an occasion that comes once after 1000 years, so celebrations surrounding it can still be justified a year before even if it starts next year. Anyway, the point I am seeking to drive home is that all eagerly feel and hope that the new year, new century and for that matter the new millennium will witness lesser hostility, belligerence and acrimony in the world.

But, while a happy and healthy society devoid of all these dangerous elements that are presently afflicting peace and stability is certainly the most desirable thing, it will be height of folly to expect that such a happy situation will surely emerge. Political philosopher Plato's "Ideal State" remains a utopia but there is no denying that a nearest substitute of this can definitely be achieved provided wisdom, sanity and judgement for the good prevail replacing the conditions that batter the pitch of tranquillity and stability.

The pious hopes notwithstanding, the new phase that has begun with the first day of the current year does not seem to augur well for many parts of the world. Despite the hopes for a better future being expressed on this occasion by personalities ranging from Bill Clinton, president of the most powerful nation on world to the leaders of tiny nations, some of the indications that synchoronised with the advent of the new year appear to bode ill as well. It seems particularly applicable for the South Asian region where the hopes for a better environment is craved for more than anywhere else. For, the political and even the social conditions here are certainly showing distressing metamorphosis while economically most of the people are mired in abject poverty.

The island state of Sri Lanka, reeling under a prolonged civil war on the issue of the demand by minority Tamils for an independent state, witnessed another attack by a suicide bomber in the first week of the new year claiming 13 lives. Coming close on the heels of a similar attack on president Chandrika Kumaratunga on December 18 in which she narrowly escaped but many others were killed, this attack was aimed at probably prime minister Mrs Srimavo Bandarnaike, mother of the president, and other ministers. This time also the main target seems to have been missed out but the woman suicide bomber killed security personnel and others when challenged before the prime minister's residence and blew herself off. Certainly, the civil war in Sri Lanka is one of the main trouble spots in the world and hopes for a solution of this seemingly intractable imbroglio in the coming days, following the recent presidential elections, are unlikely to bear any fruit since the separatists have sent a clear signal through the latest attack about their thoughts. Barring a near-miraculous positive development, the island state appears destined to experience more and more bloodshed as the settlement of the Government-Tamil confrontation remains a distant goal with both sides hardening their stances.

The fall-out of the hijacking episode of an Indian Airlines passenger flight is likely to further sour the relationship between two powerful neighbours in South Asia- India and Pakistan. After seven agonising days, all passengers, except one killed earlier, were released by five hijackers but not before extracting their main demand - release of three Kashmiri militant leaders from jails in India. This issue has further worsened the hostile relationship between the two neighbours. Indian prime minister A B Vajpayee called upon different nations to consider and declare Pakistan as a "terrorist state" while Pakistan's military ruler General Pervez Musharraf rejected charges that his country had encouraged the hijacking. Islamabad has also stiffened its position on "Kashmir" and says no improvement of the ties is possible without addressing the crux of the problem which is "Kashmir". This is a kind of departure from the policy followed by dismissed elected government of Nawaz Sharif which believed that overall relations can be improved and various forms of cooperation between New Delhi and Islamabad can continue while efforts would continue to solve the main "Kashmir" problem. Obviously, the hijacking drama has come as a bad omen in their already belligerent ties and it can be said with a large degree of certainty that new year bodes no encouraging signs for peace and friendship for the two.

It goes without saying that tensions in the region stem from Indo-Pakistan ties and this tendency has exacerbated since both countries detonated nuclear devices in May, 1998. When there is little likelihood of a thaw in their apparently bitter relations and, on the contrary, indications are discernible for bigger animosity.

We in Bangladesh are evidently bracing for political unrest in the face of opposition demand of early elections and government's refusal to give in and willingness to stay in power till the term is over. Political turmoil which means more strikes, violence, loss of lives etc. are on the cards. But what is alarming is the break-down in the social security. The incident of molestation of a young woman at the Dhaka university campus area in the midst of the celebrations of the new Millennium is the tip of the iceberg. Such incidents have not occurred anywhere in the region and not even in many advanced countries where wild festivities usually do take place. The much-talked about incident has only signalled the deterioration of social values. An alert home minister Mohammad Nasim has assured that the culprits will be brought to book. But the question is where are we really heading for? How can we respond to the challenges of a new era and identify ourselves as a dignified nation coming through a bloody liberation war nearly three decades ago, if the mental make-up comes down to such lowest ebb!

As we have stepped into a new century, four major countries of South Asian region are in news in negative perspective. The dealing of the hijacking by the Vajpayee government has sparked off a debate in India itself. Some Kashmiri militant organisations may seek to draw sustenance from the release of their three leaders. Islamabad and New Delhi are expected to exchange even harsher words and consequently the relations may further nose dive. Sri Lanka is in the despair of an never-ending war. We in Bangladesh are gripped in despondency while also trying to see the light at the end of the tunnel which, however, is not noticeable as such except one being philosophically optimist about the future. South Asia has entered the new year, new century or the "new millennium" with more bad omens than good around it. Let us still try to hope that things may change for the good!