Netanyahu tests Obama in ME policy speech

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is testing US President Barack Obama's terms for peace talks with the Arabs by nodding to some of the demands, analysts said.
In his speech Sunday from Ramat Gan, they said, Netanyahu yielded somewhat to Obama's call for a two-state solution by proposing a demilitarised Palestinian state but he ignored his appeal for a total freeze on settlements.
Meanwhile, during a visit to the region, former US president Jimmy Carter warned that the US and Israeli governments would be on a "collision course" if Israeli settlement activity continues in the Palestinian West Bank.
Analysts agreed such a confrontation is still possible.
For Aaron David Miller, a former adviser in both past Democratic and Republican administrations, Netanyahu tried to "strike a balance" between responding to political pressures in Israel and in Washington.
He said he succeeded, at least in part, by calling for a Palestinian state that is demilitarised while demanding that the Palestinians establish law and order, recognise Israel as a Jewish state and solve their own refugee problem.
The White House later issued an upbeat initial assessment.
Obama "welcomes the important step forward in Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said in a statement.
Obama "believes this solution can and must ensure both Israel's security and the fulfilment of the Palestinians' legitimate aspirations for a viable state, and he welcomes Prime Minister Netanyahu's endorsement of that goal," it said.
However, Miller, a public policy fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Centre think tank in Washington, said it is not clear how the Obama administration will respond to Netanyahu's refusal to stop all settlement activity.
He left open the possibility of a settlement deal struck between the two leaders in private.
If the Obama team ends up pursuing its firm line, he said, it risks a fight with Israel without achieving much in the absence of prospects for reviving Palestinian-Israeli talks -- partly hobbled by massive Palestinian divisions.
"They're all dressed up and there's nowhere to go without Israel's cooperation," Miller told AFP.
Tamara Cofman Wittes, an analyst at the Brookings Institute, said the speech was as much aimed at Netanyahu's domestic audience as at the Palestinians, Arabs, and the United States.
However, there are implications for the new administration.
Wittes said Netanyahu "went a step or two in the direction the Obama administration wanted him to go," without making substantive progress.

For example, the Obama administration has been trying hard to recruit broader Arab support for establishing normal ties with Israel in exchange for a settlement freeze.
With Netanyahu's comments on settlements, she said, "it looks like we're stuck at square one."
Asked if this would put the two governments on a collision course, Wittes replied: "Maybe so."
She recalled Israel in the past agreed to a settlement freeze as stipulated by the roadmap unveiled in 2003 by the diplomatic quartet of the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and Russia.
But she said Netanyahu's speech seems to be diverting attention away from the roadmap and it's not clear what Washington will do to make Israel abide by its obligations.
The White House statement said Obama will work with all sides to see that they "fulfil their obligations and responsibilities" needed to achieve a two-state solution and a comprehensive regional peace.
"Ever since Netanyahu came to Washington (last month) there has been on the Israeli side an interest in testing how serious the Obama administration is" on settlements and a Palestinian state, Wittes said.
The speech, she concluded, should be viewed not as a "definitive statement about how far Israel is willing to go, but in a way as another early bid in what is going to be a long poker game."