Congress still appears ahead in the Indian elections

AS India goes to elections in mid-April, the Congress-led ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) appears ahead to be of its main rival, National Democratic Alliance (NDA), even though a close contest between the two alliances is on the cards.
A recently forged "Third Alliance," mainly comprising leftists and some regional secular parties, is also in the fray. This group is unlikely to make much dent in the Hindi heartland that accounts for most of the seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, but may emerge as a critically important factor in formation of the government in the event of a hung parliament, which is a clear possibility.
Neither of the two main alliances seems like securing absolute majority, and will have to rely on others for governance. As electioneering is gaining momentum, the two sides are getting locked in belligerent wordy duels. Several issues are coming in the campaign -- both domestic and foreign affairs -- as the key players in the fray are sparing no efforts in wooing the electorate and turning the table on the opponents.
The staggered voting, beginning on April 13, will take place in phases, and the outcome will be known from May 16. The interest and enthusiasm has generated enormous curiosity as a prelude to the national elections of a country of more than a billion people. All are keeping their fingers crossed as the UPA is confident of retaining power while the NDA is equally upbeat about wresting the South Bloc -- the seat of power -- from the opponents.
Will the ruling alliance be able to retain power and, if it wins, will Mrs. Sonia Gandhi become the prime minister? The BJP-led alliance is making a desperate bid to win because successive defeats may place the combine in a precarious condition. Will it emerge victorious? Who is going to be the next prime minister?
Polarisation in the electoral alignment is taking place, but to whose advantage? And finally, will the culture of coalition government in India produce surprises in terms of allies and adversaries in both pre and post polls scenarios? There are other issues as well centering the elections.
If the ruling alliance wins the elections, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will be the next prime minister. Sonia Gandhi herself in this regard set all speculations at rest when she said that Dr. Singh would continue. Sonia demonstrated great wisdom and extraordinary graciousness when she refused to become prime minister following the last elections, although she was the architect of Congress's somewhat unexpected victory. But Sonia gave the country its first Sikh prime minister, who is also an well-known economist.
The NDA has projected former chief of the BJP and ex-deputy prime minister L.K.Advani as their premier. Aging and physically weak, the charismatic A.B.Vajpayee is now playing a less important role in politics. Both Advani and Vajpayee are in the early eighties, but the former is more fit for electioneering and conduct of business of a government.
So, the future Indian prime minister is either Manmohan or Advani, barring unexpected developments like the relatively little known H.D.Deve Gowda of Karnataka once becoming prime minister of a united front government with Congress support. Sonia prefers a backstage role, but wields considerable power in decision making. Whether her son Rahul Gandhi seeks a more important role in the government in the coming days is another matter of interest for many.
The Congress-led alliance is secular while the NDA is largely non-secular, with BJP promoting Hindu nationalism and the Shiv Sena of Maharastra being rabidly anti-secular. The third front is also secular, hence any government by the Congress, its allies, or even the third front, will be secular in nature. The leftists, whose citadels are West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura, along with mostly regional parties may play a critical role in the absence of an absolute majority by either of the two major alliances.
However, the third front may either itself seek to form a government with Congress support or endorse a Congress government, depending on its strength in the new house. The leftists, who have a record 62 members in the out-going Lok Sabha, withdrew their support to the UPA government on the issue of agreement with the United States on civilian nuclear cooperation. In any case, the leftists and their "Third Front" partners will not support the NDA, which they see as communal and rightwing.
Interestingly, fissures can be witnessed in both UPA and NDA alliances in the pre-poll scene, with UPA's heavyweights Sharad Pawar of Nationalist Congress in Maharastra and Laloo Prasad Yadav of Rastriya Janata Dal in Bihar causing some problems in the alliance. The ruling combine has also lost some allies. Likewise, the NDA is not free from such problems, though to a lesser degree.
As the elections get nearer, those who have high stakes in the voting remain entrenched in the battle-front as the lines have been clearly drawn. Congress has a strong base in some northern states, barring Uttar Pradesh which has most members in the Lok Sabha. Here, only the traditional Rai Bairely for Sonia and nearby Amethi for Rahul are safe seats for the party.
BJP is strong in UP as well as Madhya Pradesh, and has also made inroads in the south where the Congress and the allies are formidable. The Congress lost some state assembly elections, including Gujarat, but also won some including the important Delhi state. The party has lost some popularity because of the incumbency factor. Nevertheless, it still appears ahead of the main rival NDA for a variety of reasons, highlighted by the fact that it could complete the term with a stable administraion.
However, the contest is expected to be close, and the last few days before close of the campaign can be crucial in luring the floating voters, whose number is quite big, in shaping the outcome. Till the outcome of the polls is available, it is a matter of guesses and analysis. Incidentally, the results of the last elections belied most media and other forecasts and, as such, the outcome of the coming polls broadly remains shrouded in uncertainty.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist and analyst of international affairs.