The eternal triangle

In her book, published coincidentally about the time Nawaz Sharif was attempting his failed civilian coup in 1999 against the COAS Pakistan Army, Liz Greene says that "relationship triangles are an archetypal dimension of human life. We do not ever escape them, in one form or another. We also tend to handle them rather badly when they enter our lives. We may have to cope with feelings of jealously, humiliation, and betrayal. Or may have to cope with the sense of being a betrayer -- of being dishonest, of injuring someone."
The Eternal Triangle can involve two women and a man or conversely, two men and a woman. Today's politics in Pakistan has such a triangle, involving Musharraf, Benazir Bhutto and Mian Nawaz Sharif. Given the reactions in the last six weeks since the Musharraf-Bhutto meeting in Abu Dhabi and Sharif's reaction to it, is it a wonder, to quote Liz Greene, "that the emotions that are involved in triangular relationships are often agonizing, and cut away at self-esteem? Because triangles confront us with very difficult emotions, we will either try to blame ourselves or we blame one of the other two lives."
Liz Greene is well known throughout the world for her instrumental role in shaping modern psychological astrology. She holds a doctorate in psychology and is a qualified Jungian analyst. Mian Nawaz Sharif needs to see her in London as soon as possible, as it is, given the recent Saudi announcement about his commitment to them, he has a severe credibility problem.
Pakistan's murky politics tends to get murkier by the day, even Liz Greene would have given up attempts at objective analysis. Once he became Lt Gen and Corps Commander, Mangla, Musharraf very deliberately gave the ruling PML the impression of being the least powerful among the contenders for COAS, quite different from his actual personality.
Being a Mohajir and, therefore, taken wrongly to be someone without a "constituency" in the army added to his profile as the most suitable COAS in Nawaz Sharif's eyes. In Lahore every other weekend, having a good time, Musharraf seemed least likely to buck the PM's authority.
With Ch Nisar daggers drawn against Lt Gen Ali Kuli Khan, and given Ch Nisar's closeness to the brothers Sharif, the COAS post for Musharraf became a done thing! Within hours of Nawaz Sharif appointing him as COAS in Oct 1998 Musharraf reverted to his real personality, decisively making wide-ranging changes in the Army meant to essentially cook Nawaz Sharif's goose, sooner or later.
Musharraf's good qualities are that he is cerebral and visionary, not normal attributes in any senior military hierarchy, and also quite tolerant unless someone does something personal. Musharraf's outstanding asset, his spouse Sehba, maintains a low profile, very much appreciated in a society fed up of overbearing wives and mistresses.
He never abandons his friends, going out of his way to help them.
This benign benevolence has been grossly misused by both his old friends as well as those new found "friends" who tend to coalesce around every ruler; this is going to hurt Musharraf afterwards whenever an accountability of his era is done. His finest initiative was accountability of those who had looted the nation, his worst failure lies in compromising that accountability to ensure his own continuity.
Benazir Bhutto grew up as the daughter of one of the geniuses of politics in the world, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Benazir's plus points are that she is well read, extremely articulate and, with two stints as PM, has loads of administrative experience. She has tremendous charisma, both at home and abroad, and uses it well to her great advantage.
Sensitive to the moods of the electorate, she is an astute politician. Ms. Benazir Bhutto is also a pragmatist who well understands that the army has a place in the Pakistani political sun. Her father suffered grievously because of this and she, not so grievously, twice; it has turned her into a realist.
Negotiations with Musharraf is not a one-night stand, it is a well thought-out and calculated political risk, balancing the ground realities of Pakistan with the geo-political complications thereof. Benazir's Achille's heel is her husband Asif Zardari.
For better or for worse, Zardari's name is synonymous with corruption but, in all fairness, it has been equaled if not exceeded by many in both Mian Nawaz Sharif's and Musharraf's tenures. If Asif Zardari decides to stay put in New York and enjoy his millions, he would do himself, Ms. Benazir, and the country a favour.
Mian Nawaz Sharif is a very likable human being and, like Musharraf, also very loyal and generous to his friends. A product of army patronage (as was Zulfikar Ali Bhutto), but neither from the landed gentry nor with a background of politics (unlike Bhutto), he has done exceedingly well in becoming very popular in the Punjab, but he has very little support in the other provinces.
A scion of a major business family, Nawaz Sharif Suri's economic-oriented vision envisaged rapid development of the socio-economic infrastructure, symbolized by the Islamabad-Lahore Motorway. He could not quite reconcile with his businessmen colleagues paying the due taxes that make up the revenues that run any country.
Late Moinuddin Khan, who left a seven-figure salary to come back and become Chairman CBR, died of a broken heart at this rank duplicity. Nonetheless, most of Musharraf's economic reforms were actually Nawaz Sharif initiatives, Sharif failing to implement them because of political and personal compulsions. The nuclear bomb explosion was a historic tonic for Pakistan (and for the Muslim world). This decision to bring a Muslim country out of the nuclear closet, inspite of the personal risk, goes to his undying credit.
His major problem is that when in power he forgets the promises he makes when he is out of power, his memory being conveniently self-serving as seen in his commitment to the Saudis. If he can come to terms with the fact that his former uniformed mentors have a role to play in Pakistani politics, he could well become PM again.
Some individuals and forces outside "the eternal triangle" that can influence the end result in Pakistan need mentioning. The Honourable CJP Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry is now far more judicially (and by default politically) active than ever. The legalities aside, it will be interesting to see how he reacts to condoning of corruption in both the political and military regimes?
Do not forget wily politician Ch Shujaat Hussain, some people tend to under-estimate the reserves of goodwill he has built up, as well as his inherent knack for effective political manipulation. This man is not about to become a sacrificial lamb!
The US government remains a major factor, vying for continuity of support of their policies vis-à-vis the "war against terrorism" and in Afghanistan. Moreover, 2008 is US election year, and the Bush administration would not like Pakistan to become another hot topic of the presidential debates. Many other factors merit mention in dispatches, but space becomes a constraint.
Notwithstanding the agreement in Abu Dhabi, it all comes down to when one person will doff the uniform. Sooner rather than later?

Ikram Sehgal, is an eminent Pakistani political analyst and columnist.