Why does Bush support President Musharraf?

THE election on February 18th is being widely seen as a "People's Coup" in Pakistan. In October 1999, President Musharraf, as the army chief, engineered the military coup to replace the constitutionally elected government of Nawaz Sharif.
There are a total of 342 seats in the National Assembly. Of these, 272 are filled by direct elections. In addition, the Pakistani Constitution reserves 10 seats for religious minorities and 60 seats for women, to be filled by proportional representation among parties with more than 5% of the votes.
At the time of writing, the PPP has won 87 seats, PML-N 70, and ANP 10 seats in the election for 268 National Assembly seats. Two-thirds of 268 NA seats come to 179.
However, after adding seats reserved for women and minorities, and winning over some independents, the three-party coalition is expected to get a two-thirds majority in the 342-member house.
President Musharraf has now tasted the bitter fruit of revenge inflicted by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, whose party PML (N) is expected to form a power sharing government with Bhutto's PPP.
His popularity has plunged over the past year because of his attempts to hold on to power, which included purging the judiciary, including the independent-minded chief justice, and imposing six weeks of de-facto martial law under the guise of emergency rule on November 3rd.
Meanwhile, the economy has been suffering from inflation, high prices of basic commodities and power cuts. Ordinary people have lost confidence in Musharraf's administration. The man who came as "the saviour of Pakistan" in 1999 has been perceived as the "destroyer" of Pakistan's stability and integrity.
Last year was the bloodiest year in Pakistan's history. Extremists and militants attacked 60 times in the country, killing scores of people. They were able to hit the army headquarters in Rawalpindi.
The whole tribal area is up in arms, not in the religious sense but out of revenge for casualties inflicted on tribesmen. Pakistani soldiers were held hostages. The Musharraf government had to arrive at a truce with tribal leaders.
There have been expressions of concern in the United States that Pakistan has not been doing enough to assist in the war on terrorism. US intelligence has found out that the Musharraf government has diverted some of the US funds against India.

What does the US gain by supporting Musharraf?
President Musharraf knows his political life now depends on the US and the Pakistan army. If the US supports him, the Pakistan army would not go against him because there is a close connection between Pakistan army and the US.
Furthermore, if the US exerts political pressure on PPP, it may retain President Musharraf. In this connection, US officials reportedly met three times with PPP's co-chairman Zardari to work with Musharraf and moderate forces, meaning the pro-Musharraf PML (Q).
It is noted that before President Bush leaves the White House in January 2009, he wants to show to the American people that his administration has captured Osama Bin Laden who is believed to be hiding in the tribal areas of Pakistan.
Accordingly, the US wants expansion of its intelligence and covert military activities in the tribal areas in Pakistan. Against this background, President Musharraf, who has long refused to allow US soldiers to operate openly in the Federally Tribal Administered Areas, has reportedly agreed to do so.
With the agreement of President Musharraf, the US will set up its coordination centres on the Afghan side of the border where US, Afghan and Pakistan officials can share intelligence about Al-Quaeda and the Talebans.
Anew coordinating centre is being reportedly built on the Afghan side of the border near the Khyber Pass, and a second centre on the north of Torkham. Four more centres are being considered.
According to plans, about 15 Afghan, Pakistani and US officials will meet daily at each centre to share intelligence about the activities of militants on the both sides of the border
The Bush administration seeks to expand its influence in the tribal areas through a new economic support initiative that would initially focus on school and road construction projects. Officials recently asked the US Congress for $453 million dollars to initiate the effort -- the largest request for economic support funds for any country except Afghanistan.
This concession to the US by President Musharraf would evolve into a greater role for the US forces in the region over the years in future. Some analysts say that the sharing of intelligence may eventually evolve into a form of military cooperation.
It may be recalled that in August last year, a special meeting between Afghan President Karzai, Trbal leaders and President Musharraf paved the way for better cooperation.
The CIA is reportedly pushing to enhance its surveillance capabilities and intelligence cooperation with the Pakistani counter-parts at a covert location in the tribal areas.
For long, US forces have operated Predator drones capable of destroying terrorist targets inside the tribal areas, but complained about the location of wanted targets.

Musharraf in trouble?
A two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament (National Assembly and Senate) would enable the new government to impeach the president, and to deprive the presidency of its powers to sack a prime minister and dissolve the parliament, by restoring the Constitution to its pre-Oct 12, 1999 position.
Nawaz Sharif obviously takes a hard-line against Musharraf as he called him to quit, while the PPP does not because it was the president who declared amnesty for the corrupt politicians of PPP. If the Supreme Court judges are restored, the law of amnesty might be challenged and found to be untenable in law.
Furthermore, Nawaz Sharif believes that if the dismissed Supreme Court judges are restored, the apex judiciary will decide as to whether President Musharraf could be elected as the president while still in uniform.
If President Musharraf is able to bring discord between PPP and PML (N), he will win the political game in Pakistan and the US will support his strategy.

Conclusion
The question is whether such expanded cooperation with the US in the tribal areas will be palatable to the new power-sharing government of PPP-PML (N) at Islamabad. Furthermore, it is the support of the US for President Musharraf that irritates and rankles the majority of Pakistanis. They deem it as gross interference in domestic politics by the superpower when Musharraf was rejected by the majority of people of Pakistan. They question: Where does the credibility of the US in promoting democracy and freedom lie?

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a Former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.