No end in sight
Thailand's government is prepared to confront mass protests as the Supreme Court on 26th found fugitive ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra guilty of abusing his authority to benefit his family telecom company Shin Corp and seized a $1.5 billion chunk of his fortune.
In a judgment expected to influence Thai politics for years to come, the highest Court said the former leader had hidden his assets and abused his power to benefit his companies and had, therefore, damaged the public interest.
The Court ruled on whether Thaksin's $2.4 billion in assets frozen during the 2006 military coup were corruptly gained by the tycoon.
The Court said that Thaksin a hero to the country's rural poor now living in Dubai had concealed ownerships of telecoms shares, in the dispute over whether he had become "unusually rich" during his tenure.
The nine judges agreed unanimously that the ousted prime minister and his ex-wife Pojaman Pombejra held more than a billion Shin Corp shares during Thaksin's period in office. This contradicted the Thaksin couple's claims that they had sold the shares in the then-family owned company to their children and Mrs Thaksin's brother. However, the Court questioned the substance of the prosecution's case saying it was unclear.
Fearing an angry reaction and riot from Thaksin's red-shirt wearing grassroots supporters, Prime Minister Ahbisit Vejjajiva ordered tens of thousands of troops to keep the peace across Thailand.
The depth of dissatisfaction can be judged when a businessman in a red- shirt, Sit Kitanon said: "We will not do anything today. Today is not our day. But our day will come. If the court destroys Thaksin, the court is destroying democracy. I am not here for Thaksin, but I care about justice."
As coup rumours were denied, 6000 soldiers were on duty spread out in Bangkok.
The government, which depends on the fragile support of the military for its future, said it wanted at all costs to avoid a repetition of the street fighting between Red Shirts and security forces last April.
The capital was on high alert with schools, offices and some businesses around the Supreme Court and across the city closed ahead of the verdict.
A skilful user of social media, Thaksin said on Twitter that his wealth was not the fruit of corruption, but of "hard work, brains and sweat". He faces two years in jail on corruption charges if he returns to Thailand.
Backers of the Red Shirts, known as the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) were urged by their own leadership to keep official "judgment day" demonstrations to a minimum along with the vehicle of Thaksin's political machine, the Puea Thai Party.
The UDD said it did not want to be held responsible for any violence after the ruling and was calling on a million supporters from around Thailand to descend on Bangkok on March 12.
The Red Shirts' movement was now an "organic" force spread across the country with strong grass-roots rural support that went beyond even the popularity of Thaksin.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, the director of the Institute for Security and International Studies at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, reportedly said the Red shirts would stage large demonstrations, even if the initial reaction to the verdict was relatively muted. He said: "This is a long drawn-out process. Today was a big step but it is not the final step. The Red Shirts will protest. We have to look at the example of last April. They have had some coalition problems but they have a lot of foot soldiers especially outside Bangkok."
Atiya Achakulwisut, editorial pages editor at the Bangkok Post, said that for many people, the issue has gone beyond Thaksin and his wealth. "It is now about how the national wealth has been unevenly distributed, how power has been used unjustly and how a system of privileges has been established and allowed to go on …the fight will continue long into the future, long after the last word on the verdict is read."
Some analysts say that the case has pitted the poor against the ruling class. The paradox of Thaksin's political movement has inspired large swaths of poor and disaffected voters. It seems that Thailand's acrimonious divide will not be resolved easily or perhaps even peacefully because compromise between the two sides seems to be difficult.
The author is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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