A Precipitate Outcome
NO one expected that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's state visit to India would resolve all outstanding issues. It was a goodwill visit. It was to set the climate for negotiations and lay down a base for communications.
Despite all the euphoria over the visit it has been repeatedly underscored that relations between Bangladesh and India are motivated neither by good intentions nor by good neighbourly relations but by the logic of "realpolitik."
The key characteristics are caution, circumspection, pragmatism and hardball negotiations. It must be remembered that India never concedes an inch. Leader of the Opposition Begum Khaleda Zia categorically stated that Bangladesh was not anti-Indian. It was simply not oriented to making it easy for India.
The purpose of the visit was thus to lay down an agenda that would lay a foundation for follow-up over time -- a framework as it were, for discussion, agreement and subsequent implementation. Fundamental concerns of each side were to be spelt out and a network of existing mechanisms and institutions were to be energised and reactivated.
Bangladesh's Fundamental Concerns
Water Sharing: 54 rivers cross into Bangladesh from India. In the last 38 years, a sharing agreement has been concluded on only one of them. Many, in Bangladesh believe that the 30 Years Ganges Water Treaty is seriously flawed. It was concluded in haste and abandoned the major planks of Bangladesh's claims for a reasonable and equitable share. Furthermore, Bangladesh has no protection in seasons when there is a drastic fall in the flow of waters. The impact of this agreement has had disastrous adverse consequences for Bangladesh. The river-linking project embracing 30 rivers hangs over Bangladesh's head like a Damocles sword. The project is still on the books despite strong protest in India itself. It remains an incalculable threat to Bangladesh.
Environment: The issue of water sharing is compounded by larger economic, ecological and environmental hazards which call for much greater cooperation especially with regard to watershed and catchment area management and control of pollution, etc. Environmental hazards wreak annual havoc to the tune of billions of dollars downstream. "No harm" assurances have never been realised.
Land Boundary Issues: Non-ratification by India 36 years after signing the 1974 Land Boundary Agreement has exacerbated tensions all along the 4096 km Indo-Bangladesh border. 6.5 km remain to be demarcated, constituting the core of the most disputed issues. Exchange of territories in adverse possession and enclaves in each others territory have now unnecessarily become hot spots of tension. Willful disregard of border ground rules and shoot to kill orders have seen mounting toll of innocent civilians killed. Movements of people across the border, trafficking in humans and drugs, border smuggling, etc remain constant pin-pricks. Two elements in particular contain huge potential for conflict: (i) exaggerated claims of large scale illegal immigration, and (ii) the building of a fence to deter such illegal immigration, check smuggling and prevent infiltration by Indian insurgent groups. The fence has at points arbitrarily encroached within 150 yards against agreed border ground rules. India is now justifying that the fence does not constitute a defense mechanism.
Maritime Boundary: Demarcation of the maritime boundary between adjacent states carries significant potential for competition and conflict over living and non-living resources. Both India and Myanmar have adopted an unvarying stand on demarcation on the basis of the most rigid application of the equidistant line. A joint stand of India and Myanmar could cut-off Bangladesh's access to the limits of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and Continental Shelf and deprive it of its legitimate rights over resources of the sea, sea-bed and sub-soil thereof. Bangladesh's case is based on equity. Government has precipitately embarked on arbitration with the international sea-bed tribunal. It appears to have now reverted to pursuing both options, i.e. arbitration and bilateral negotiations. The fact is that it has not yet firmed up its position in determining the equities of its case. One of the key elements is establishing Bangladesh claim for an extended continental margin up to 350 nautical miles.
For the full version of this article please read this month's Forum, available free with The Daily Star on February 8.
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