Pakistan scene: What is in store?

IT is a fast developing situation in Pakistan. The country clearly appears convulsed by a political crisis, which may drastically change the present power structure in a nation that is struggling for a stable government. Democracy could hardly flourish in Pakistan because of a myriad of problems and, consequently, a representative government could seldom spread its wings.
Problems broadly emanated from two sources -- unconstitutional interventions in the system and the wrongdoings of politicians that effectively facilitated such interventions.
Indeed, it is a sordid spectacle since the second largest nation in this south Asian region, in terms of size and population, remains mostly unstable either because of lack of democratic values or undesirable situations created by the politicians. The current condition also falls in the same broad parameter even though it has its own dimensions and character, which, however, is not unfamiliar in the political milieu of that country.
President Asif Ali Zardari is now at the centre of a crisis triggered by a momentous verdict of the Supreme Court, which has invalidated the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) that had given reprieve to a number of politicians and others from corruption cases before the last general elections.
Former president Gen (retd) Pervez Musharraf had promulgated the ordinance, wooing the politicians and thereby making the polls meaningful through their participation. It was also seen as a part of an understanding between him and the PPP, since the politicians most benefited by the ordinance were late former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, President Asif Ali Zardari and influential ministers Ahmed Mukthar and Rehman Malik.
The ordinance had smoothened their participation in politics and elections, which took place in February 2008, and PPP went on to win. Benazir was assassinated during electioneering, but PPP emerged victorious as sympathy caused by her death also contributed to the win. Yousuf Raza Jilani became the premier and Zardari became president after Musharraf was somewhat forced to resign.
Pakistan's judiciary, which is often at loggerheads with the executive, was in the news when the Supreme Court declared the NRO "unconstitutional" and paved the way for revival of the annulled corruption cases against those leaders. Not surprisingly, this gave a jolt to the ruling establishment since many key figures, including President Zardari, may now have to face the corruption cases.
The main opposition, Pakistan Muslim league (Nawaz), lost no time in asking Mr. Zardari and some ministers, including those of defence and interior, to resign on moral grounds. Expectedly, they all spurned such demands and vowed to stay in office, regardless of the Supreme Court verdict, saying that they were not affected.
The president is protected by a constitutional provision that bars any proceedings against him while in the highest office. But his critics say he should quit on moral grounds since the constitution also stipulates that the president has to be pious and honest.
Zardari is trying to ward off the crisis, citing the provision of immunity, but the opposition have kept up the pressure for his resignation. The president even said that he would not resign, and such a development could take place over his dead body. The small party of cricket star-turned politician Imran Khan has called for immediate midterm polls to overcome the situation.
But more confusion and suspense were created when Defence Minister Ahmed Mukthar was barred from going to China on an official visit and an arrest warrant was issued against the home minister in the aftermath of the court verdict. This sparked off speculations and rumours -- one being that the army may be calling the shots and the country is once again on the verge of a military take-over.
However, both the government and the military scotched such rumours, saying that both were working together. But, speculation about whether the army is coming to the scene again or whether there will be other developments as a sequel of the current political tensions is now making the rounds in the political circles of Pakistan and beyond.
Several aspects have come to fore in the backdrop of the present situation. First, whether the promulgation of the NRO itself was the right decision when it dealt essentially with corruption related matters. Certainly, it was done for political expediency, but there is no iota of doubt that it was devoid of morality. The powerful has judiciary struck it down, which is seen as a landmark decision by the people.
Secondly, many Pakistan politicians turn a blind eye to good governance when in power and seem busy in making their fortunes. Sadly, late Benazir and Nawaz Sharif, and some of their relatives, are facing such allegations. Benazir's husband Zardari, during her two- terms as premier, was known as "Mr. Ten percent" because of his involvement in major deals in different areas. Press reports say he has many properties in London and Dubai, and a moderate estimate indicated that these were worth $1.2 billion. Nawaz Sharif was also prime minister for two stints and he too could not complete his tenure on either occasion. He has properties abroad, which runs into millions of pounds in London alone.
It is a game between the two main parties, PPP and PML (Nawaz), as the latter is eyeing a return to power as Zardari's popularity had touched its lowest ebb even before the verdict. But Nawaz, demonstrating his wisdom, opposes any unconstitutional action against Zardari or the government. He is keen to force Zardari to quit on moral grounds while upholding the constitutional process. He knows that if the process is thwarted, his chances of coming to power in the immediate future may become bleak.
He also expresses his allegiance to the "Charter for Democracy" reached between him and late Benazir in London during the heyday of Pervez Musharraf, whom both the ex-premiers had called "autocrat" despite protestations from the president to the contrary. But both also took swipes against each other, mainly on the issue of corruption. Nawaz's party obliquely accused the president of corruption, while Zardari's men turned the table on Nawaz by citing financial misdeeds by him and his brother, Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif. Relations between the two parties are clearly acrimonious at present.
The army has intervened in Pakistan many a time, and the present situation provides the opportunity for them to again step forward as "saviours" if things continue to worsen.
But the army will definitely weigh the pros and cons before taking a decision, which will obviously invite serious criticism both at home and abroad. They may do so if they are convinced that the people will welcome the development regardless of character of the authority, like what happened when army chief Pervez Musharraf seized power from the unpopular government of Nawaz Sharif in 1998. But the bottom line is that the democratic process must not be subverted because the wind of representative government has touched the south Asian region in recent times.
Any development against the democratic government -- even if it cannot fully exercise its authority or is weak and unstable -- will draw flak internationally. The current crisis has to be resolved through constitutional means. President Zardari is on slippery ground because of his own record and weak administration. He has not initiated any move to curtail the power of the presidency, which can dismiss the government and parliament -- a power that contradicts the Westminster system of democracy.
In Pakistan, the president is very powerful, but he is indirectly elected while the prime minister is chosen directly by the people. Power sharing has been a matter of discord even between two PPP stalwarts, Zardari and Jilani.
The Pakistan scene is unpredictable, but there is hardly any doubt that the country is facing a political crisis along with other serious problems like the challenge of crushing the extreme religious groups. Political and other quarters in the country will be well advised to refrain from anything that may jeopardise whatever is left in the name of democracy.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist and analyst on international affairs.