Germany moves to the Right
THE election on September 27 in Germany gave Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany, a resounding victory for her dream Centre-Right coalition. She first became the Chancellor in 2005.
The first and most obvious change of the electorate has been the swing of the Left to the Right, which was enough for Merkel to abandon her hamstrung coalition with the Social Democrats and form a right-wing coalition with Free Democrats on November 9, the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Merkel's party and its allies have increased their combined vote from 45% at the last election to 48.4% at this election, enough to deliver a stable majority in the national parliament. The increase was because of the increase of popular votes for Free Democrats, although Merkel's party together with its sister party lost a few percentage points of votes at the election.
The three parties of the Left, Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Left Party and the Greens saw their combined votes slip from 51% to 45.6%.
The second shift is much more significant, according to the Left Party activists. The enormous swing has been from the Social Democratic Party to its more hardline colleagues, the extreme Left Party.
The SPD (the party of Chancellors Gerhard Schroeder, Willy Brandt, and Helmut Schmidt) saw its votes dive from 34.2% at the last election to just 23% at this election, while the Left Party secured (11.9%) and the Greens (10.7%).
It was thought that during the global economic crisis the popularity of the Social Democrats might increase. However, it seems that when the chips are down, voters seem to be turning to the Right because they understand business and markets. The Social Democrats have not been able to capitalise on the economic crisis, instead it is the Centre-Right that has been effective in responding to the crisis.
Merkel has now the great opportunity to undertake reforms in the country. She pledged tax cuts and labour market deregulation. She said: "We will do all in our power to have growth push up tax revenues."
Observers believe that Germany is heading for more dynamic, but also stormier, governance. The coalition with the Free Democrats will not be easy because Free Democrats have vowed to push their agenda -- free-market stance as top priority. Although the chancellor and the leader of Free Democrats Guido Westerwelle (expected to be foreign minister) agree on a broad direction, there are many potential flashpoints.
The Free Democrats want a simplified tax system and to cut the top rate from 50% to 35% and Merkel has promised to cut taxes, but many believe Germany cannot afford to begin the process before 2012. The chancellor would prefer to begin with more moderate tax write-offs for child-care.
The Free Democrats also want to unravel health reforms by opening up the market for private medical insurers and will be arguing against Merkel's plans to expand the powers of the domestic intelligence service. There is tension also over the Free Democrats' desire to wind back anti-terrorism surveillance.
Many Germans fear that this new government will bring in a neo-conservative revolution and turn Merkel into Thatcher. After the polls, Merkel tried to reassure the Germans: "I have not turned into a different person overnight."
Merkel, a PhD in Physics, is known to be a cautious and pragmatic person. She will not go for extreme measures because, her party and its allies lack a majority in the upper house.
Furthermore, the election has split the Germans -- between Right and Left. The combined Social Democrats and its Left allies have won 46% of the popular votes while the party of the chancellor and its allies won 48% of the vote. If the left-wing parties work together there is potential to destabilise the government.
In foreign policy, the new government is likely to be more assertive in the world. It will take a tough stance with Iran, and there is no pressure on the chancellor to pull Germany out from Afghanistan. The Free Democrats want the withdrawal of the US nuclear warheads stationed in Germany as a priority.
The new Berlin government is likely to see Nicholas Sarkozy, the French president, as its main friend in Europe. The main loser could well be Turkey. While the Social Democrats supported the Turkish entry into the European Union, Ankara may face opposition from the new government as it does from conservative governments in Paris and Rome.
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