Can Koirala make peace bloom in Nepal?

People's power has triumphed over Royal power in the Himalayan kingdom. King Gyanendra, in the face of determined and non-violent movement of his people, as well as pressure from outside, has restored the National Parliament which he had dissolved in 2002.

The Grand Old Man of Nepali politics and three-time Prime Minister, Girija Prasad Koirala, has been called out of semi-retirement and installed as the Prime Minister again. Peace and normalcy have returned to the Himalayan capital, but the bigger challenge lies ahead.

The crucial transition from monarchy to democracy has just begun. The coming months will demonstrate whether the historic April revolution will firmly establish democracy in Nepal, or, like the previous occasion, the movement will lose its track due to political in-fighting or palace intrigue. The Nepali people, however, have indicated that they will be more vigilant this time.

The King, since the dismissal of the last Prime Minister in February 2005, had sought to establish absolute monarchy in the country. In the process, he has jeopardized the future of the monarchy that has ruled Nepal since 1769. The Nepali people, who in the past treated their King as a direct descendent of God Vishnu, are now openly asking for the end of monarchy.

In the past, the three major players in Nepali politic -- monarchy, political parties, and the Maoist rebels -- have tried to corner each other. The Kings, taking advantage of the division within the political parties, used the "divide and rule policy." They dismissed the governments one after another on grounds like "corruption" or "their failure to curb the Maoist insurgency."

The Nepali people had thought that after the democratic revolution of 1990 their elected representatives would be more responsive to their legitimate demands and basic needs. Unfortunately, the politicians proved to be self-seekers and made hardly any move to improve the living conditions of the teeming millions.

Absolute monarchy, rampant corruption by the politicians, and the total lack of concern for the common people created necessary grounds for the emergence of Maoist rebels in the mid-90s. The Maoists, who understood the plight of the poor villagers, took a number of steps to alleviate their sufferings. This helped them earn popularity and support of the rural people.

The Nepali government has virtually lost control over most of the countryside to the rebels. So far, 13,000 people have died due to military offensives against the Maoists. The Maoists' steadfast opposition against the monarchy, and the heavy price that they have paid, especially during the direct rule of Gyanendra, have made them a force to reckon with.

In a rare show of unity, seven parties formed a loose alliance (SPA) and got their act together. The Maoists rebels surfaced publicly for the first time and they too joined them. This unexpected unity completely upset the Palace plan and the King had to concede.

The Maoists would like to bring an immediate end to monarchy and transition to a republic. The mainstream political parties, however, believe that it would be prudent to keep "ceremonial monarchy" but to take away the control of army from the King. This issue will be determined by the next constituent assembly and one of the principal tasks of the Koirala government will be to hold fresh elections as soon as possible.

The politicians must maintain the existing unity and take advantage of the current momentum to bring in lasting changes in Nepal. Although Koirala was chosen as the Prime Minister unanimously, the parties squabbled among themselves when it came to naming the ministers.

After a week of bitter haggling, the parties finally reached a compromise last week and a new cabinet has been formed. The new cabinet represents a fine balance among the main political parties. The two minor parties, however, have decided not to join the government but support it from outside. The students, who played a crucial role in the mass agitation, took note of the squabbling and warned the ministers not to forget the people's aspirations.

The bigger challenge, however, is to persuade the Maoists to give up arms and become involved in mainstream politics. So far, the progress has been good. Following Koirala's telephonic conversations with the Maoist supremo Prachanda, the Maoists suspended the three-week long blockade and announced a three-month unilateral truce. Whether they will agree to play by the rules of parliamentary democracy, or make ideological concessions for the sake of wielding power in the "bourgeois democracy," is not yet clear. Equally unclear is the question whether they will be able to control their overzealous militants.

The Maoists may not give up arms at this stage but they have indicated that they will be agreeable to isolate their troops under international supervision, if the Royal Nepalese Army does the same. Eventually, they want their forces, the People's liberation army, to become a part of a new national military.

The Maoists are aware that in the final analysis they have to accept a political settlement and they do recognize that the current movement has given them a historic opportunity to become a respectable partner in the democratic process. Premier Koirala's most recent assurances to drop all terrorist related charges against the Maoist militants and the government's decision not to designate them as a "terrorist group" have created favourable ground for the resumption of peace talks.

Nepal is lucky as there was no overt outside meddling in their internal power struggle. Fortunately, interests of her two major neighbours, India and China, as well as that of the United States, had converged, and they had acted in concert to put pressure on King Gyanendra to restore democratic rule and end confrontation. Experts believe that the outside powers were apprehensive that further continuation of confrontation would edge the Maoists closer to power as it was an opportunity for them to fully exploit the crisis to expand their insurgency.

Interestingly, China did not support the Maoists. Until recently, they were staunchly supporting the King, but as his unpopularity grew, China shifted its stance in favour of the democratic movement. Now that the crisis is over, US, China, and India have sent high-level delegations expressing their desire to offer generous economic assistance and resume military supplies to Katmandu. India has always played a leading role in this Himalayan kingdom: how far they will allow other powers to involve themselves in Nepali affairs remains to be seen.

The author is a former Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh.