Realities that Bangladesh faces in the aftermath

ELECTIONS were held yesterday with moral defeat for a party with a long history of struggle for democracy and the distinction of providing political leadership in the country's war of independence -- the Awami League. Failure to field a credible opposition in an election where the AL and its allies were pre-scheduled to come out as 'winner' with more than 50% seats won unopposed is inconsistent with the image of a party that perceives itself as the champion of democracy.   
Presence of politically insignificant parties like JSD or the Workers Party carried little weight among the voters. The JSD failed to win a single seat in 1991, 1996, and 2001 elections and the Workers Party won only one seat in 1991 and not a single seat in 1996 and 2001. In 2008 election, with AL backing these two parties together won 5 seats. After much arm twisting, a breakaway part of Jatiyo Party agreed to play the part of opposition. Quarantining Ershad in a hospital did not draw any accolade nor did prevention of Khaleda Zia from joining the 'March for Democracy' have any merit. Most importantly, these stage managed shows and acts of coercion could not either fool or convince the public.
In Bangladesh, people celebrate their democratic rights by casting votes in a festive mood. This time the mood was characterised by fear, anxiety, indifference, and apathy. The strong arm tactics of the government and violence unleashed by the opposition have created an environment of fear. In the last one year, violent agitation by the BNP- led opposition and aggressive response by the law enforcers have resulted in more than 400 people killed, many more injured, and public and private property worth millions damaged.
The AL's justification of elections to meet “constitutional deadline” and dogged determination to hold the polls is largely untenable. The 2011 Supreme Court verdict provided for two more elections under the caretaker system. The constitutional amendment passed by the government the same year was so rushed that it hardly allowed room for any inclusive stakeholder consultation. The constitution is the people's charter and not a means to serve narrow partisan interests that undermine the greater wellbeing of the people whose interest it is supposed to preserve and protect. Under the same pretext of “upholding the constitution,” BNP held the farcical February 15, 1996 elections boycotted by AL and other parties, and which attached a stigma to BNP's name. By holding the January 5, 2014 elections, AL now gets even with BNP, again unfortunately for wrong reasons.
The International Community including the US, EU, China, UN, have repeatedly tried to facilitate dialogue and consensus between AL and BNP without any success. The EU, US, UN did not send election observer missions. While India is perceived to be single-handedly backing the AL, it rather reinforces, rightly or wrongly, the stereotype of AL being a pro-India party or India being a pro-AL country. How this would impact Indo-Bangladesh relations in the coming days as well as AL itself remains to be seen. Meanwhile, India is heading towards elections before May 2014, where the BJP candidate Narendra Modi looks strong and policymakers in India may rethink their stance in relation to Bangladesh. The Hindu -- one of the most influential Indian daily newspapers -- wrote on January 1, 2014: “The crisis poses a serious challenge for India's policy on Bangladesh… India could have helped at least by counseling Prime Minister Hasina to take less reckless positions against her opponents, but it is too late for that now. Post-election, Bangladesh appears headed for more volatility, and New Delhi's relations with a government that comes to power through a problematic process will only get more complicated.”
Given the above background, the international community will view the new government as the outcome of an election lacking legitimacy. Their response to the government is likely to be gradual. They would encourage early timing of fresh election with all sides involved. If their urging is still snubbed, sanctions and punitive measures may eventually follow -- although it is too early to spell out what those might be.
The opposition would now push to hasten fresh, i.e. 11th, national election. Yet, it would be a heavy burden on the already imperiled economy, which will continue to stagnate until a political solution with buy-in from the two major political camps can be reached. The months of blockades and shutdowns prevent retailers, transport businesses, farmers, and exporters from carrying out regular business activities. Investors will hold back or shift their investments.
In the RMG sector, 40% orders were cancelled in December 2013. India -- the tough competitor -- is working to ink Free Trade Agreement with EU, which might affect the RMG of Bangladesh. Vietnam and Pakistan are coming up as close rivals. The footloose RMG orders -- once shifted elsewhere -- do not come back. Many of the losing businesses would default on loans, while banks fret over diminishing credit appetite among clients. Already, the international institutions and the central bank have revised growth outlook downwards for the coming year -- which is now less than 6%. If the political stalemate is not resolved early, more downward revisions will follow -- spelling doom for the lives and livelihood of millions of ordinary citizens of the country.
The AL has often bemoaned the criticism it faces despite all the development successes and achievements it made in its five year tenure. Yet, the persecution of Dr. Muhammad Yunus, the Padma Bridge fiasco, the Share Market scam, and the one-sided election have laid ground for criticism for which AL cannot fault others. The irony is that both the parties have undermined the country and its people in the name of democracy and constitution.
After 42 years of independence and two decades of democracy, Bangladesh cannot afford to go back to square one. Unless this vicious cycle of acrimony and confrontation ends and we move to a democracy that is stable, matured, and functional, the outcome is continued slide to political bankruptcy and economic collapse. We are not a failed state but as a state we are failing on things that matter most. Are our leaders listening or do they care? We all know the answer.  

The writer is a Professor at the IBA, University of Dhaka.