Democratic elite complicit in a potential Donald Trump victory

The 2020 US elections will have a huge impact on global affairs. As one of the most powerful countries in the world, USA has an important role to play if we are to survive the two biggest threats to existence—risk of thermo-nuclear war and climate change. The necessity of a steady and capable leader—who grasps the gravity of these challenges—to lead USA, and by extension, the world, cannot be overstated. The Democratic presidential primary race was till now down to Joe Biden (the centrist) versus Bernie Sanders (the progressive), with the winner competing against Republican President Donald Trump in the general elections. The Democratic establishment had left no stone unturned to hand the nomination to Biden and given Sanders' recent withdrawal from the race, they have succeeded. The concern is—on top of Biden's history of being on the wrong side of most major political issues, he continues to show signs of serious cognitive decline. Trump has already brought this up multiple times and will continue to religiously dwell on it till the cows come home. By running such a frail candidate against an incumbent President with a very enthusiastic voter base, the Democrats were essentially willing to risk a Trump victory in order to avoid a Sanders one.

In a decadent US society where unfettered capitalism has become the feature and not the bug, short term profits of large corporations—from fossil fuel companies to defence contractors—supersede the prospect of organised human life. As renowned public intellectual Noam Chomsky points out, "In the US, there is basically one party—the business party. It has two factions, called Democrats and Republicans, which are somewhat different but carry out variations on the same policies."

But in 2016, Bernie Sanders started a political movement without any support from large corporations, wealthy individuals or the media—breaking with a century of American political history. As a Sanders presidency presented a genuine threat to the status quo that the power establishment thrives in, he needed to be stopped at any cost. In all likelihood, that has been achieved; at this point, only a cataclysmic event can prevent Biden from being the nominee and even in that scenario, party leaders will not nominate Sanders.

Even with the ceaseless ridicule and rebuke of Sanders, his supporters and his policies by the corporate media, and the party establishment shenanigans in Iowa (the first primary state), the 2020 Democratic primary started off almost like a fairytale for the Sanders camp. With the moderate vote being split among centrist candidates, Sanders looked to be on the same path to victory as Trump's in the 2016 Republican primary. But after Joe Biden's remarkable South Carolina win, the entire Democratic establishment coalesced around him with astounding velocity and unprecedented coordination on the eve of Super Tuesday, when the greatest number of states held primary elections and caucuses. Biden's fellow moderates in the race—Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar—immediately dropped out and endorsed him, with Obama reportedly playing a hand behind the scenes. Having initially written Biden off, the national corporate media came around instantly to play their dutiful part and fall in line, providing USD 72 million in largely favourable earned news coverage.

But despite Biden's wondrous turn of fortunes, all major left-wing progressive outlets in USA are warning that he is essentially Hillary Clinton 2.0. Besides the shared affection for pablum and platitudes, they both voted for—in some cases, championed—disastrous trade deals and (now unpopular) wars. Clinton herself recently stated that "Joe is building the kind of coalition that I had." If that's not a bellwether of impending disaster, I don't know what is. As pointed out by many political commentators, including MSNBC's Chris Hayes and Al Jazeera's Mehdi Hasan—there is no good reason for believing that the Democrats can rerun their 2016 playbook and Donald Trump will not rerun his. Indeed, insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

In a showdown between Biden and Trump, voters will have to "choose" between two candidates more alike than apart. From similar resumes on hawkish foreign policy to corruption to even sexism and sexual harassment, the differences between the two candidates are far from obvious. And given Trump's formidable advantage in campaign funds over the Democrats, this would be very easy to exploit and possibly lead to a depressed Democratic voter turnout.

Furthermore, in stark contrast to Biden's current lack of elocution, one of Trump's biggest strengths is (manipulation through) effective communication. Despite his cavernous incompetence on the coronavirus response, Trump is winning the messaging battle. And although the latest ABC/Washington Post poll currently has the two candidates in a virtual tie, the key metric to look at here is the enthusiasm level of supporters, where Trump holds a huge lead over Biden. This is a warning sign for Biden, as all recent Presidential candidates with low supporter enthusiasm ended up on the losing side. Some political commentators are wary of Biden's vapid candidacy and are hence betting on Trump botching the response to the ongoing crisis as the potential path to victory for Biden.

But even if Trump bungles the response to the pandemic and economic downturn, it doesn't automatically guarantee a Biden victory. To win, the Democrats need a large turnout among young voters, independents and typical non-voters (groups Sanders was overwhelmingly winning over); this is especially crucial in the Rust Belt states that delivered Trump's victory in 2016. But despite Biden's recent acknowledgement of the strength of the Sanders movement, he has not yet offered anything concrete to earn the votes of Sanders supporters. And as he has confirmed not picking Sanders as Vice President, party leaders must convince him to pick a major Sanders surrogate (like Nina Turner) or endorse significant policy proposals that matter to progressives. As these are quite improbable, Democratic elites are likely headed towards snatching defeat from the jaws of victory once again.

Imtiaz Arefin is a Masters graduate from Brandeis University, USA.