What is Putin’s endgame?

The Russian president is facing an unexpected level of resistance but remains determined to continue on a belligerent path.

As Russia's war on Ukraine continues with reports of hundreds killed, there are rising questions about what President Vladimir Putin is trying to achieve here.

Cristian Nitoiu, lecturer in Diplomacy and International Governance at Loughborough University London, told Al Jazeera, "The long-term goals of Russia following the end of the Cold War have been to recover the great power status of Soviet Union, to be seen as equal by the West and to be able to influence political developments in its smaller neighbours like Ukraine, Moldova or Kazakhstan."

Ukraine has been incorporating itself into the Western orbit of influence. Accordingly, placing a Russian-friendly government in Kyiv is most likely the main objective of the Kremlin, said Nitoiu.

The Russians would probably install at least an interim administration, said Graeme Gill, professor emeritus of government and international relations at the University of Sydney.

However, given the low likelihood of this being widely accepted among the Ukrainian population, Putin would have more success if the current government, perhaps stripped of some members but continuing to be led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was retained in office and able to negotiate with the Russians, Gill added.

"There are no easy options for Putin, and it would certainly not be easy for any interim government installed by force of Russian arms," said Gill.

Russia still has not put all its cards on the table, John R Deni, research professor of joint, interagency, intergovernmental, and multinational (JIIM) security studies at the US Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute, told Al Jazeera.

"US officials have reported that somewhere between 50 and 70 percent of available Russian forces have been committed so far, meaning there is still lots of nearby Russian military power left to commit.

To this point, it remains somewhat of a mystery what Putin would do with a nation the size of Ukraine.

Splitting up the country might be the most likely option. However, it is not without severe difficulties.

"Splitting Ukraine would require some entity to implement and enforce the split. While the Russian force might implement a split, I am not convinced Russia has the capacity and wherewithal to enforce it beyond the short run, given the Russian military forces arrayed at this point," said Deni.

"Nonetheless, a split – perhaps along the Dniepr River – remains a possibility," Deni added.

"I think Putin's options are quite limited. Russia is now trapped in achieving some sort of victory in Ukraine," Nitoiu said.

"If Putin manages to install a puppet government, this will be a major blow to the West's commitment to liberal democracy and will set a dangerous precedent for interstate relations on the European continent," said Nitoiu.

Thomas Graham, who served as senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff during the George W Bush administration, told Politico that if Putin does have an endgame, it is not clear to outsiders at this point. For the past several months, he has deliberately deceived people as to what his true intentions are.

Most recently, he suggested he would launch an operation to defend the separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine, and then he ordered a massive strike across the entire country. So, it is not clear what his territorial ambitions are. That said, he has declared that he will "demilitarise" and "denazify" Ukraine. That would seem to mean that at a minimum he wants to destroy Ukraine's military infrastructure and replace its government with a puppet regime.

Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow and chair of the Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Programme at the Carnegie Moscow Center in Moscow, Russia, told Politico that it is very difficult to determine what the endgame is for Putin.

One could assume that it would be enough for him to be listened to by the strongest leaders in the West. Or that Donbas and Luhansk would officially become his fiefdom. And all this against the background that he has suppressed civil society in his country, and the elites are afraid of him. But he probably needs a) the authorities in Kyiv under his control as a part of his "empire", and b) the world (or at least part of it) playing by his rules.

Source: Al Jazeera, Politico