The myth of an American Century!

EVEN if obfuscated by gory development in our neighbourhood -- the assassination of Pakistan's charismatic leader, Benazir Bhutto and its widespread repercussions -- two events of global significance couldn't but stand out as the year 2007 eclipsed in the sea of eternity. The first one was Time Magazine giving Vladimir Putin, the steely-eyed Russian leader, the accolade of Person of the Year. The second was the purchase by the China Investment Corporation of nearly 10 percent of the American bank, Morgan Stanley, as it announced the write-off of $9.4bn bad debts. Here is an attempt to put the events in some historical perspective.
In 1990 this scribe happened to meet Francis Fukuyama, the Japanses-born American academic who was then enjoying a halo of distinction at a seminar in Wilton Park near London with his widely publicised treatise, titled The end of history, produced in the wake of the Cold War's demise. He was found explaining to any one willing to listen that the world had reached a point where there was no longer any meaningful dispute between Marxism and market. He particularly emphasised that Western liberal democracy was becoming the ultimate form of human government.
The hiatus of only a decade or so has proved that Fukuyama's findings were alluring but illusory. Although there was a positive response to the dictum of The end of history, as it sparked an animated debate in those days, the enthusiasm faded with the passage of time. Now, the state of affairs at the end of 2007, in which Russia and China appear to be doing rather well without adopting Western liberal democracy in its classic form and even by challenging the model with disdain, is certainly a damper for the "end of history" crusaders.
Contrary to expectation, Russia, ravaged by Yeltsin's "mafia" democracy, has turned its back to the creed. In a recent opinion poll, only 20 percent of Russians favoured democracy and market economy. As for China, her proverbial pragmatism does not encompass democracy as yet, but she is well aware of the importance of economic muscle in international power relations.
However, for a vast number of the world's people democracy is an aspiration -- but only after basic security and at least a semblance of prosperity. Both in Russia and China all efforts at the moment are directed towards that, and that their efforts have started to bear fruits is evident from the fact the two great powers of the communist era have ended the year more confident than they were at any time since they lost the Cold War. And what is interesting is that then sense of purpose and defiance led to doubts in the West as to the efficacy of the system being pushed there.
Within less than a decade or so of the founding of a slightly risible organisation, '"The project for new American Century," Time magazine honoured Putin, considering his country "critical for the 21st century." In the meantime, the dollar has collapsed to hover at 50 pence sterling, and America's war in Iraq now well exceeds its involvement in the second world war and has already cost $ 600 bn -- a sum which Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stighlitz believes will reach $1 tn. This is a credit-card war, for which the Americans will be paying Chinese banks for years after George Bush has left the office.
Even though, the current war costs about 1 percent of America's annual $13,247 bn GDP, it is difficult to ignore a perfectly plotted story in this. America, the only superpower at the moment, is, ironically, financed by its chief competition in a prolonged exercise of distraction. It absorbs a huge amount of money and much of the US' policy-making and diplomatic energies. At the same time, the very nature of that distraction dissipates American influence over the world.
While the US frets about surges, troops withdrawal and inconsequential democratisation in occupied countries, the project for the new Chinese century has been well underway for sometime, and it is striking how intelligently the Chinese, being the world's fourth largest economic power, have been extending their influence while rarely indulging in high profile diplomacy or unnecessary power projection.
Yet, her power trajectory has been steeply rising, with 17 percent increase in its defence budget, test firing of something called a direct ascent anti-satellite missile that could atomise one of its own weather satellites, launching of massive computer hacking operations against western governments and businesses, and so on. The resource rich countries in Africa and Latin America, dreaded by western powers for their endemic instabilities, have been conveniently won over by the Chinese.
That is not true of Russia which, over the last year, has opted to challenge the West at practically every turn, whether by planting a flag on the seabed beneath the Arctic ice cap, testing the massive ordnance air blast bomb, or disputing the siting of an early warning defence system in Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Russia's GDP is three times what it was in 2002. The oil prices account for most of the rise, but there is a growing middle class with more money to spend, and a sense of renewed national pride. Even if modest, there is an improvement in the standard of living. The "mafia" democracy of the Yeltsin era been replaced by what is called "sovereign democracy" in the phraseology used by the Kremlin.
So much for Fukuyama's "final form of human government." Putin openly disputes the virtue, if any, of western democracy. The value system the Americans once prided on has since been eroded by Guantanamo, the Patriot Act, and general attack on constitutional rights in America. A recent poll published in the International Herald Tribune showed that a majority of Americans believe that their country is a threat to world peace, and a similar proportion say that America is weaker today than it was at the start of the Bush administration.
The rise and resurgence of Chinese and Russian power, and a relative weakening of the world's sole superpower, aptly represents the civilisational tradition of the rise of one influence and the decline of another.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.