Wider implications of the Gujarat polls

Secular India has received a severe jolt at the Gujarat polls. What many probably understood as a 'silent wave of Hindutva' that dictated the polls was in reality an 'outwardly silent but inwardly sonorous' wave of 'Hindutva'. As there are now hectic attempts to turn it out as a surging flood all secular forces of India need to join hands post-haste to contain this.

Hasn't the hardline Hindu nationalism won a fabulous prize in the Gujarat polls? There are some critics going to the length of terming it as most crucial of the elections in India in the last decade. Time will say how far their observation is correct.

Of course there is still a section of moderate critics who have tried to ease the tension of the nation by advising not to overestimate the consequences of the Gujarat polls on the future political landscape of India. They argue that ever since the BJP seized power at the centre in 1998 it is the Congress that was voted to power in fifteen states, three as coalition partners, and the Gujarat polls simply halted Congress's winning streak.

They have contended that the Congress erred in studying the sentiments of the electorate and providing effective palliatives. It pathetically failed to full-throatedly counter the use of sentimental Hindutva agenda by the BJP. It could not properly answer the BJP's projection of terrorism issue by adequately focusing on the dismal failure of the BJP government at the centre and in Gujarat to effectively address the problem.

While the formal report from the Congress highest policy making forum, the working committee, on the results of the Gujarat polls is yet to come the party general secretary attributed the defeat to a 'silent wave of Hindutva' that steamrolled all other factors. Be it silent or sonorous, unfortunately the Congress top leadership together with many other forums of India including a section of media, survey polls, exit polls that predicted a photo finish of the results, failed to gauge the things to come.

The BJP's poll plank in Gujarat was straight, unvarnished, unashamed. It was Hindutva in its most virulent form. One of its potent slogans, was 'Modi' or 'Musharraf'. It meant that if voters preferred the Congress candidate Shankersingh Vaghela it would amount to a victory of Pak President General Pervez Musharraf signifying that the timid attitude of the Congress towards Pakistan would be of no use to protect the national interest of India. It emphasized that only the hardcore Hindu nationalism could effectively counter Pak fundamentalists' machination to destroy India.

What seems to have stunned all is not the results of the Gujarat elections but the attitude of success of the BJP on one hand and the degree of defeat of the Congress on the other. Chief Minister Narendra Modi was accused of turning a blind eye to the worst communal riots in Gujarat that left about 2000 dead, most being the Muslims. But quite inversely, this inhuman act paid Modi rich dividends in the snap polls that he brought forward with a tailor's precision to ride on a wave of Hindu nationalist sentiment.

Narendra Modi has been figured up as a national hero not only in Gujarat. His charisma seems to have exercised far beyond that. He has ascribed pointblank the Gujarat victory to Hindutva. However Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee declared that Gujarat win was subscribed by development works of the BJP government.

But the Modi brand of the BJP gave a sound slap on his version by deriding him as 'pseudo-secularist'. Many think that the aging Vajpayee seems poised for exit. Modi with the venomous Hindutva card in hand appears to be gorgeously placed in no time at the centre stage of the BJP now leading the alliance government of India.

Understandably, had Vajpayee and Advani garnered more than enough guts to take action -- in far excess of sounding threat to -- against Modi by imposing president's rule in Gujarat, the situation could have possibly been averted. Now the whistle appears blown not only for the exit of Vajpayee but more damagingly the packing up of India's much vaunted secularism. The way Modi launched election campaign by openly projecting the tenets of Hindutva was a clear violation of Indian constitution that guarantees secularism as one of the most sacred principles of the Republic. The election commission tried to uphold the constitution but could not cut through the teeth of the surcharged sentiment.

What accounts to be more worrying to the secular forces of India is the victory of the BJP in polls outside Gujarat both in Loksabha and state assemblies. The three by-election defeats in the Congress ruled state of Rajasthan in the hand of the BJP is particularly discomforting for the Congress as it faces assembly elections in 10 states, seven of which are now ruled by the party. The congress needs to work out a positive and newer plank than the stereotyped one to woo the voters against the BJP who would certainly throw in the aggressive form of Hindutva plus anti-incumbency factor to turn the table in its favour.

Romped to undreamed of success in the Gujarat polls the BJP is all out to replicate the feat in the coming assembly polls and in national polls in 2004 as well by pouring down its hardline Hindutva message into the ears of the electorate. They have already started preaching that the politics of the opposition political parties is apt to reduce nation's stature and honour by compromising on issues that weaken national security. They repeat that the assembly elections in Gujarat clearly showed that the nation had rejected 'the pseudo-secular forces.'

The new world political situation has also favoured the Hindu chauvinists of India to flourish. It is said that after 9/11 (Twin Tower disaster) a new world order has set in. The extraordinary expounding of President Bush's government of a new political philosophy of 'war on terrorism' has threatened many a nation with war horrors launched by the lone superpower the US aided, sometimes forcibly, by other countries. In the process the Taliban government of Afghanistan was blown away amidst colossal destruction of the country. Saddam Hussein of Iraq is being drawn closer to facing the firing line of the US. But tragically enough the mission is proving to be counter-productive in some cases in as much as fundamentalism -- religious, sectarian, political, social etc -- that promotes in no mean way terrorism which obviously obstructs progress has been found to take roots in some countries across the world after 9/11 carnage. In the last October polls in Pakistan the MMA, an alliance of six Islamic fundamentalist groups, sprang surprise by performing wonderful results. The BJP, another religious fundamentalist group, stunned everybody by bagging 127 out of 182 (minus one kept postponed for death of a candidate) seats in the state assembly. Bangladesh too presents a picture where a religious fundamentalist political party the Jamaat-e-Islami has forced entry into the council of ministers. Like instances are witnessed even in most advanced countries of the west. The Republican Party, considered conservative in approach and application compared to the democratic party, surprised the world with its overwhelming victory in the midterm polls of the US.

In an attempt to lengthen its shadow all over India to garner larger number of votes in the Indian national polls in 2004 the BJP has extended its activities to the seven sister states of the northeastern India. It will certainly cause concern to Bangladesh. Though it is doubtful how far the BJP will be able to thrive politically in this region, its activities and the consequent counter-activities of the predominant political parties there may aggravate the political and ethnic problems of this strife-torn region that will surely impact on Bangladesh. This may thicken the accusations launched by the BJP government at the centre that Bangladesh is providing indulgence and protection to the separatist rebels of those seven states of India.

Understandably the major brunt of fighting the evils of aggressive Hindutva falls on the shoulder of the Congress, it being the main opposition. Unfortunately it has not yet shown as much sense of urgency in this regard. The Congress seems drowned in restoring composure after the Gujarat debacle. It is not known when will the Congress respond to the wake-up call to take the lead in mustering all secular forces of India against the radical Hindu elements.

The BJP is shrewd enough to assess that even if it wins the majority in the elections in all the Hindi-speaking states of India it cannot get at the magic figure of 273 in the 545-member parliament. So it will probably run after to lead a national alliance like the present one in the national polls of 2004. On the other hand, the Congress, probably blinded by the vision of its past glories, suffers from the complex (illusion?) that it can go alone, it needs no other party by its side, whereas all other opposition parties do have the need to stand with the Congress. Obsession of this sort is suicidal not only to the Congress but sometimes to the greater causes of the nation also. It is not anyway desirable that the secularism crisis that the Gujarat polls have portended will be left unaddressed by the Congress till it is too late.

A R Shamsul Islam is retired Principa, Govt Mohila College, Pabna.