New year's gift for Erdogan -- the Turkish premier in waiting!

He has appeared on the Turkish political horizon as a new meteor. The only administrative experience he has is the one of successful Mayor of Istanbul. In his hands will lie the fate of nearly 70 million population, a vibrant dynamic population, bursting at the seams with energy. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early nineties and the emergence of nearly a dozen Turkic states, Turkey has become the veritable bridge of Eurasia. Time will tell if Recep Tayyip Erdogan will fulfil the expectations of the people.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a name that Turkey in particular and world in general will hear frequently during the year 2003.

The year began for Erdogan with a welcome gift from the President of the Turkish Republic, Ahmet Necdet Sezer. He lifted his veto against Erdogan allowing him to run for a Grand National Assembly seat from Siirt in eastern Turkey. The seat fell vacant following the ouster of Jet Fadhl, who had been earlier elected as an independent candidate. Through incredible twists and turns Fadhl finds his parliamentary immunity lifted and is lodged in jail. In the fresh elections due in February next Erdogan is sure to win a seat. Siirt is the birthplace of Madame Erdogan.

In the 3 November elections of last year, proving all pollsters wrong the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which was led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan won a two thirds majority. The three-way coalition led by Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit of the left leaning Democratic Left Party (DSP) had an ignominious defeat and none of them could cross the barrage of 10 per cent votes nationwide. Along with AKP the only other party to cross the barrage was People's Republican Party founded in 1923 by the founder of modern Turkey Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. The party is now led by Deniz Baykal.

With the convincing victory of AKP the Government has been formed under Prime Minister Abdullah Gul, deputy of Erdogan. Since Erdogan had been slapped a ban by the Turkish courts for reciting poems in public meetings considered seditious, he had been banned from politics. The New Year's gift by President Sezer is the lifting of the ban and thereby opening the door for his taking over the reins of administration.

For the last month and a half Turkey has been through tumultuous politics. There has been a two-headed administration -- Erdogan, the President of AKP and Abdullah Gul, the Prime Minister. The two launched a fierce campaign for membership of the powerful European Union (EU). The Summit of EU was held in Copenhagen, capital of Denmark, on 12 December last. The Summit decided to expand the 15-member organisation into a 25-member one by including virtually the entire former Soviet bloc. Turkey had strenuously campaigned that the EU would announce a date for Turkey to start negotiations for eventual membership. In the Summit declaration EU came tantalisingly close but backed away at the last moment. It appears Turkey will have to resume her odyssey once again in 2003.

The year 2002 has witnessed war drums grow louder and louder emanating from Washington and the target is oil rich Iraq. President George W Bush appears all set for a strike against Iraq. The entire world minus Britain has been ranged against the US determination for a strike against Iraq. The excuse is, Iraq is supposed to stockpile weapons of mass destruction and President Bush is determined to 'disarm' Iraq. The fact that UN weapons inspectors are looking at all nooks and corners of Iraq and seem to have failed to find the 'smoking gun' leaves Bush unimpressed.

The fate of Turkey, a close neighbour of Iraq, seems inextricably linked with Iraq. Northern Iraq is the focal point of great diplomatic and military activities and Turkey has a large border with Northern Iraq. Two huge oil fields in Kerkuk and Musul are located in Northern Iraq and nearly three million ethnic Turks, the Turcomens, live there. The greedy eyes of the US, Northern Iraq administration propped up by Washington, Britain, the administration of Baghdad and Turkey are focussed on that region. The US has been threatening that she will enter the region through Turkey. Turkey seems prepared to have a modus vivendi with the US for she too has expressed strongly that her forces, which are already there, will enter in larger numbers to protect the oilfields. Turkey does not want a British presence. Britain has eyed those oilfields since her imperial days. Opinion in Turkey is divided whether to take part in the operations in Iraq, should US start a military campaign as it appears more and more likely. There is consensus that even if Turkey does not take part directly in a US sponsored war, she cannot remain indifferent to the fate of Northern Iraq, since she has her kith and kin there. The US has been mounting pressure steadily for a Turkish decision. She has launched a vigorous campaign through her Turkish friends, mostly former ambassadors in favour of the 'mightiest power' in the world and it would be foolish not to benefit from this 'opportunity'. The pressure reached such a level that the Turkish National Security Council in a meeting under the residency of President Sezer and presence of the Prime Minister and the Defence Minister and participation of the three Chiefs of the Armed Forces decided that there was no need for Turkey to act at the moment since the UN would examine the report of the weapons inspectors at the end of January 2003. The Turkish decision, therefore is to work through the UN.

High on the Turkish agenda is her campaign for membership of EU, a campaign she has carried on for more than four decades for the better part of November and December Recep Tayyip Erdogan, although sporting the title of President of AKP, toured the European capitals and the US and had red carpets rolled out for him everywhere, for he was the Prime Minister in waiting. Shortly his ambitions will be fulfilled. He has appeared on the Turkish political horizon as a new meteor. The only administrative experience he has is the one of successful Mayor of Istanbul. In his hands will lie the fate of nearly 70 million population, a vibrant dynamic population, bursting at the seams with energy. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early nineties and the emergence of nearly a dozen Turkic states, Turkey has become the veritable bridge of Eurasia. Time will tell if Recep Tayyip Erdogan will fulfil the expectations of the people.

Arshad-uz-Zaman is a former Ambassador.