Is Sri Lankan peace process moving in the right direction?

The very fact that the two sides despite lack of advance on the key issues decided to continue the talks and not let the progress be obviated by insistence at this stage on the difficult issues itself is a tangible outcome towards the bumpy road of peace in Sri Lanka. Arguably, the thorny issues cannot be settled so easily and the Gordian knots cannot be untied in quick time. Serious differences may persist on sensitive matters for days to come and this is the reality in such a complex crisis. But the discussions are being characterised by a spirit of give-and-take.

The latest round of talks between the Sri Lankan government and Tamil rebels in Thailand for the first time dealt with certain most sensitive and complex issues of the longdrawn civil war in the island state and two sides could not make any headway on these matters. However, none really expected much progress on such issues like the decommissioning of the arms by the rebels and dismantling of the army camps in the rebel-dominated areas. The dialogue ended without any agreement on the key issues but this should not give the impression that the talks have failed or have run into too rough a weather. Having made progress in recent months on their sensitive discussions, two sides this time picked up the most contentious subjects and it will be height of folly to expect a breakthrough on these in four days of parleys. No doubt, any major progress on the vexed issues would have given unexpected but desireable impetus to the on going peace process. But not surprisingly, this did not happen and the two sides will have to make some headway on the delicate matters in the coming days should the dialogue produce expected outcome towards a permanent settlement of the Sri Lankan conflict.

It is true that the positive ambience for a dialogue to settle the complex civil war in the island state of Sri Lanka may be marred because of new complexities introduced in the peace process. Signs are being discernible that the current talks between the government and the Tamil militants may suffer setbacks in the form of fresh differences unless the new hiccups are resolved to an extent to facilitate continuation of talks before they threaten the progress already made so far in the direction of a permanent peace in the country where the rebel Tamils have been fighting for nearly two decades for a separate homeland in the north but have jettisoned this main demand as a big concession to the peace process. The government too gave several concessions in a spirit of accommodation so that the difficult peace efforts brokered by Norway and supported by the international community continues unabated despite problems within Sri Lankan government. The government of prime minister Ranil Wickramsinghe is in an uneasy cohabitation with president Chandrika Kumaratunga, whose hardline attitude towards the Tamil rebels runs in contrast with the prime minister, who heads the government that is in effect charged to run the nation despite enormous powers by the presidency in some matters. The president and the prime minister belong to rival political platform.

Sri Lankan government and the Tamil militants signed a landmark ceasefire agreement last year that has brightened the prospects of a negotiated settlement of the vexed civil war that has so far claimed so many lives on both sides. Two contending sides did reach truce before as well but it is for the first time that they signed an accord to halt hostilities mediated by Oslo and vowed to honour it. Never before, the ceasefire took a formal shape and raised the kind of expectations that this accord has done. The government forces and the Tamil militants are observing the first internationally monitored truce as the country now sees a concerted move towards ending the bloody conflict. The island state was bleeding white because of long internecine war. Ceasefire in the past had proved shortlived, bringing back both sides on the war path again.

The accord has not come out of blue as sufficient efforts were undertaken for attaining this situation conducive for a dialogue between the two sides. This followed several positive measures that have helped creating a congenial environment for negotiations to end the problem. The scenario has changed for better after a new government came to power following the December 5, 2001 parliamentary elections. Among other steps, the government expressed its readiness to lift a ban on the "Tigers" as the militants are known. This has been a major development in the island state where the Tamil militants are engaged in a bloody insurgency causing havoc for the country. They entered into a truce with the new government and agreed to extend and honour the ceasefire with all seriousness. Indeed, all these augured well for a settlement of the problem through peaceful means despite the fact that the problem is very complex and hard task awaits for two sides even if sincere efforts are being made for solution of the civil war.

In addition to the Oslo government, the United States and other countries have welcomed the truce and accord between two sides, which has bolstered the chances of peace. Two sides kicked off their first round of talks a few months ago in Thailand where meaningful progress was achieved and it was broadly consolidated at later stages. The just-concluded talks again in Thailand may not have made headway on the important but vexed issues but brought about progress in other matters. Both sides vowed to continue the present positive atmosphere even though they stuck to their positions on the issue of decommissioning of the arms by the militants. The observation made by the chief negotiator for the rebels Anton Balasingham that giving up arms by the rebels at this stage will be "suicidal" should not come as a surprise since the militants are expected to take such a crucial decision only when they are hopeful that a permanent settlement is round the corner and they are not robbed off their bargaining power which is their military strength. On the hand, the head of the government side G.L. Peiris said the decommissioning is necessary but this will be done only at an appropriate time. This means that government is not insisting this at present stage since it knows that the other side would not cencede such a big demand at current phase and this may render the peace process itself into uncertainty. The government's attitude on this point would help the dialogue to continue.

Two sides have agreed to maintain the ceasefire despite the fact that differences persisted on the question of existence of the army camps in the rebel-influenced areas and laying down of the arms by militants. Truces were reached more than once earlier but the ceasefires seldom worked satisfactorily and consequently they collapsed leading to revival of hostilities. All these were occasional and half-hearted efforts towards peace. But the ambience changed after the prime minister Ranil Wickramsinghe's government pledged that all avenues would be explored for a resolution of the civil war through dialogue. The win of anti-Kumaratunga alliance in the elections was seen as a mandate by the electorate to intensify efforts to end the war that overwhelming majority of the Lankan people want but little progress was made earlier in that direction. The president is not favourably disposed to the peace process evidently for the reason that her People's Alliance(PA) government did not succeed in bringing two sides to negotiation and possibly now she does not relish a situation where her political opponents are demonstrating success where PA government failed. However, she is bringing in sensitive nationalistic issues to support her position like asking the rebels to dismantle their elite "Black Tiger" suicide group which was responsible for many daring operations including killing of Sri Lankan president Ranasinghe Premadasa and former Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi. The majority of the Lankan people are Buddhist Sinhalese whereas the Tamils are Hindus. A small segment of Muslims are also a factor in the peace efforts. President Chandrika is seeking to give the impression that Sinhalese interest is the most important and peace with the rebels cannot be made at its expense. The government of the prime minister Wickramsinghe says that people of Sri Lanka want cessation of this conflict which is ruining the nation itself.

Earlier, efforts to bring two sides into talks often ran into difficulties. Government side was keen for dialogue but the Militants were lukewarm. Consequently, the mission by Norwegian special envoy Erik Solheim could make no headway but attempts were not abandoned. True, the president remains at the helm as per the constitution despite the loss of her party in the parliamentary elections as Sri Lanka has a presidential form of democracy which enables the head of state to remain in the position till the term is completed regardless of the outcome of the parliamentary polls. But the government is formed by the party or group enjoying majority in the parliament and it also runs the country while powerful president remains a big factor. Still, the peace process is encouraged since only few really are less enthusiastic to efforts towards cessation of hostility.

A major achievement of the latest round of dialogue is the consensus on foreign funding to propel the peace talks and utilise the money for the war-ravaged areas. They agreed to appoint the World Bank as the custodian for the millions of dollar of foreign money expected to pour in for constructive works. The very fact that the two sides despite lack of advance on the key issues decided to continue the talks and not let the progress be obviated by insistence at this stage on the difficult issues itself is a tangible outcome towards the bumpy road of peace in Sri Lanka. Arguably, the thorny issues can not be settled so easily and the Gordian knots cannot be untied in quick time. Serious differences may persist on sensitive matters for days to come and this is the reality in such a complex crisis. But the discussions are being characterised by a spirit of give-and-take although such spirit may not be able to resolve all the difficult issues unless more accommodative approach is demonstrated. This may come at later stage or may not at all. What is needed is the positive ambience. Hopefully, the concrete gains will be maintained and both sides will create no major hurdles to the path of dialogue for greater interests of all parties involved in the tangle.

Zaglul A. Chowdhury is a senior journalist.