For all of its surprises, perhaps nothing about the Arab Spring has been as surprising as its remarkably modest harvest. The excitement and sense of hope created by the escape of Ben Ali, Tunisia's ruler for 24 years to Saudi Arabia or Mubarak's resignation gave way to a mournful reality. Of the 21 member states of the Arab League, only six have experienced concerted challenges to their regimes, and in only four were dictators overthrown. The Arab Spring's disappointing record — far less inspiring than the East European revolutions of 1989 (to which they were often compared) or sub-Saharan Africa's political transitions in the early 1990s — cries out for explanation. In Libya, armed militias have filled a void left by a revolution that felled a dictator. In Syria, a popular uprising has morphed into a civil war that has left more than 100,000 dead and provided a haven for extremists. In Tunisia, increasingly bitter political divisions have delayed the drafting of a new constitution. And now in Egypt, often considered the trendsetter of the Arab world, the army and security forces, after having toppled the elected Islamist president, have killed hundreds of his supporters, declared a state of emergency and worsened a deep polarisation.

Most of these uprisings have devolved into bitter struggles, as a mix of political powers battle over the rules of participation, the relationship between the military and the government, the role of religion in public life and what it means to be a citizen, not a subject.
While some of the movements achieved their initial goals, removing longtime leaders in four countries, their wider aims — democracy, dignity, human rights, social equality and economic security — now appear more distant than ever. “The activists of the movement in Egypt did not have a political project apart from getting rid of Mubarak, not realising that there is a time you need to go beyond that,” said Tariq Ali. “Same thing has happened in other parts of the world.” A leading British writer, journalist and film maker of Pakistani origin, Ali is the author of many books including The Obama Syndrome (2010).

Despite its modest harvest, the Arab Spring signals a wind of change. Photo: AFP

It's not just in Arab countries that popular movements have failed to produce the desired effect. Many feel Occupy Wall Street did not go far enough to realise the dreams of millions of ordinary Americans who raised the issues of social and economic inequality and corruption of corporations and organized sit-ins and sleep-ins in cities around the US.
“There are three kinds of movements: Regionalism, political regime change, and movements of consciousness,” said Eliot Weinberger. “The Arab spring and the Occupy Wall Street movement are movements of consciousness. Occupy Wall Street had no political ambition but it changed the whole political discourse in the United States. However, one thing all three have in common is the lack of ideology compared to the 20th century movements.” Weinberger is an American writer, essayist and translator whose works have been translated into more than 30 languages.
Since the ideological movements of the 20th century that promoted values like freedom and dignity, the very nature of the State has changed, complicating the calculus of movements and revolutions. “People used to talk about overthrowing the State or seizing the levers of power,” said Indian novelist and essayist Pankaj Mishra. “In Indonesia the State has become a facilitator for big business. It has long abandoned the role of provider of welfare for people. So when you seize power, you realise that there is nothing here. It's just a bunch of people striking deals with big corporations.” Mishra writes literary and political essays for many newspapers and journals including The New York Times. His latest book is A Great Clamour: Encounters with China and Its Neighbours (2013).
Weinberger added that conditions in the United States are not much different than what is going on in Indonesia.
“In some countries like Egypt, the State has become the enforcer of criminal acts and assumed the role of robbing the country,” said Ahdaf Soueif. “The revolution wanted to reclaim the State; it wanted the State to go back to its proper functions of providing welfare, planning, and so on. The activists were all purists and none of them wanted to be seen as aiming for power. But can you institute change if you don't have power?” Soueif is an Egyptian novelist and political and cultural commentator who lives in London. Her second novel The Map of Love (1999) has been translated into 21 languages.

Eliot Weinberger, Ahdaf Soueif, Tariq Ali and Pankaj Mishra (From L-R) at Hay, Dhaka, 2013. Photo: Prabir Das

Now, this poses the conundrum all uprisings and revolutions face. “If you look at Latin America, the only way they could change things was by exercising power at some level,” said Tariq Ali. “I think winning power has to remain a goal, otherwise movements defeat themselves. When popular consciousness reaches its peak, you have to have certain programmes and structures in place to take it forward.”
Historians note that fundamental political change anywhere can take decades or generations. The Prague Spring of 1968 may have failed, for example, but it was a catalyst for changes in Eastern Europe that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. The European revolutions of 1848, a series of popular upheavals that were the most widespread revolutionary wave in European history, affected more than 50 countries but soon collapsed under the repression of military forces loyal to royalties and aristocracies. Nonetheless, they sowed the seeds of progressive political ideas that would help shape European history for the next hundred years. “The most important thing about both the Tunisian and Egyptian movements was that people lost their sense of fear,” said Tariq Ali. “And when people lose their sense of fear, they can, if they wish to, achieve the equivalent of miracle.”
The mass globalisation of communication has been an important factor behind people's longing for change. Adhaf Soueif said, “It is linked to the growing concern about the growing disparity between the rich and the poor. Using the internet, young people in Oakland, California can exchange ideas and experiences with their peers in Egypt or Tunisia or Bulgaria and feel as part of one community. It is a powerful tool. No one yet knows what the limits of this power will be.”
The Arab Spring's meager yield, a bitter litany of failed uprisings and autocratic continuity, suggests that inherited political structures remain critically important. The Arab Spring's low-hanging fruits have been picked. Further change will rest on deeper, structural changes that will take much longer. People are learning that change is neither just a question of elections nor the ability to bring millions of protesters onto the street. Getting there was always bound to be messy, even bloody. The journey may take decades. But it is still welcome and necessary.